1. PROSPECTS FOR CONTAINER SHIPPING AND PORTS IN THE ESCAP REGION MPPM Port Expert Group Meeting APEC TPT-WG/20 4-5 March 2002, Manila

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5. 5 Water Transport MPPM – to provide a regional planning context Shipping policy - to promote competitive services Cruise shipping – to explore new opportunities Port commercialization/privatization – to enhance efficiency IWT integration – to improve sustainability Multimodal transport and logistics – to promote integration

6. 6 Maritime Policy Planning Model Developed by the ESCAP secretariat A set of computer modules covering trade, shipping and ports to provide projection of: Trade flows and future shipping requirements Port cargo throughputs and port infrastructure requirements Integrated Computer Modules

7. 7 MPPM Studies Prospects for container shipping and port development ASEAN (1992) South Asia (1993) East Asia (1994) Intra-regional Container Shipping Study (1997) Regional shipping and port development strategies under a changing maritime environment (2001)

8. 8 Three Modules of MPPM Trade Module Liner Shipping Network Module Port Strategic Planning Module Forecast cargo flows Country to country and port to port matrixes Assign the port-to-port cargo flows to shipping network Shipping requirements and port throughputs Assess port capacity/investment requirements

9. 9 MPPM Model Structure Trade Module Liner Shipping Network Module Port Strategic Planning Module CIY Port Data O-D Data Port share Routes Service details Vessel description Port class TEU/ship-hour Fleet required Vessel calls at ports Port throughputs Port capacity required Port-to-port cargo flows Input Output

10. 10 Trade Projection Analysis of historical data Time-series of import/export full container totals for countries Forecast export/import totals Simple regression function estimation Explanatory variables: GDP Produce port-to-port cargo flows

11. 11 Economic Growth Assumption LINK Average 1999-2004

12. 12 World Container Volumes (Full, O-D) 123 59.0 59 123

13. 13 Asian Container Trade Europe Asia N. America Asia 7.7% 5.7% 7.6% 5.1% 4.2 10.3 12.5 30.1 4.6 8.3 6.8 13.1 World Total 59 m TEU (1999) 123 m TEU (2011) 7.6% 5.3 12.9 6.3%

14. 14 JAPAN Busan/Gwangyang Kaohsiung Hong Kong PHILIPPINES Singapore INDONESIA VIETNAM MALAYSIA THAILAND Dalian Qinhuangdao Tianjin Xingang Yantai Qingdao Lianyungang Nanjing Shanghai Ningbo Fuzhou Xiamen Shantou Yantian Shekou Chiwan Huangpu Zhuhai Mainline Connection Feeder Connection To North America and/or Europe Asian Liner Shipping Network

15. 15 400+ actual service routes to/from/within Asia (1999) Service details (sequence of calling ports, service frequency) Vessel description (how many ships of how big sizes) What will the future shipping network look like? Liner Shipping Network

16. 16 How big will ships be?

17. 17 Scenarios on shipping networks Base network 2011 Similar to existing shipping network Bigger ships up to 12000 TEU but limited role: 8000 TEU or less in major E-W routes Big ships network 2011 12000 TEU ships playing dominant role calling very limited number of super hub ports in E-W routes

18. 18 Required Number of Ships 2001 3249 3,257 1,907 2,394 3,062

19. 19 Asia-Europe (2011) 2001 Ship size distribution

20. 20 Transpacific (2011) 2001 Ship size distribution

21. 21 Trans-shipment (ESCAP)

22. 22 Container Port Throughput ESCAP Region

23. 23 Top 5 Container Ports in ESCAP (2011) Busan6.312.5 Port19992011 Hong Kong16.225.3 Shanghai4.019.0 Kaohsiung7.012.8 (Million TEU) Singapore15.930.9

24. 24 Container Berth Requirement

25. 25 Investment Requirements Number of additional requirement Investment requirement (US$ Billion) Containerships1,35060 Container Berths 43427 ESCAP Region

26. 26 Difficult for developing countries to maintain a presence in shipping market Deregulation and liberalization Financing increased capital commitment Prioritization of projects Private sector participation Improving port productivity Intermodal integration Issues and Policy Implications

27. 27 Strengths of MPPM Comprehensive view of the system Regional perspectives Coherent and internally consistent ‘forecasts’ Every container assigned to a particular shipping service to be carried from one port to other

28. 28 Cargo Allocation in MPPM Los Angeles USA Hong Kong Port A Port Klang PTP Singapore 1TEU Laem Chabang Thailand

29. 29 Limitations of MPPM Simple trade projection Limitations on port numbers & transshipment nodes Lack of intermodal representation

30. 30 Plan to Upgrade/Expand the Model 2002-2003 Utilize contemporary modeling technologies Cover the whole APEC region Represent intermodal connection

31. 31 New APEC-wide Study A new study could cover the whole APEC region Cooperation of participating countries will be critical Provide information and data Feed-back Enhance collaboration between APEC and ESCAP

32. Thank you MPPM Port Expert Group Meeting APEC TPT-WG/20 4-5 March 2002, Manila