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World Feed and Food Supply and Demand Governors’ Agriculture, Energy, and Sustainability Roundtable Governors’ Biofuels Coalition Washington, DC January.

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Presentation on theme: "World Feed and Food Supply and Demand Governors’ Agriculture, Energy, and Sustainability Roundtable Governors’ Biofuels Coalition Washington, DC January."— Presentation transcript:

1 World Feed and Food Supply and Demand Governors’ Agriculture, Energy, and Sustainability Roundtable Governors’ Biofuels Coalition Washington, DC January 28, 2010 Gerald A. Bange Chairperson, World Agricultural Outlook Board United States Department of Agriculture

2 Wheat Futures Prices Source: Chicago Board of Trade, Kansas Board of Trade, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange settlement prices. Nearby Futures Contracts

3 Global Wheat Production & Consumption Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

4 Australia Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

5 January 12, 2010 World Wheat Production

6 U.S. Wheat Area and Yields Planted areaYields Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

7 Foreign Wheat Area and Yields Harvested area Yields Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

8 Wheat Production by Other Major Exporters Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

9 Global Wheat Ending Stocks Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

10 January 12, 2010 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

11 Corn Futures Prices Source: Chicago Board of Trade settlement prices. Nearby CBOT Corn Futures

12 Global Corn Production & Consumption Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

13 RFS and Corn Ethanol Use * 2008/09 and 2009/10 projected based on the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010. Projections for 2010/11- 2015/16 are from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018, February 2009.

14 Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production 2009 Summary, January 12, 2010. U.S. Corn Planted Area 1997-2006 avg. = 79.1

15 January 12, 2010 World Corn Production

16 Global Corn Ending Stocks Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

17 January 12, 2010 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand

18 Ethanol Producer Net Returns Above Variable Costs Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices.

19 Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Prices Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures. Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB) Ethanol

20 U.S. Ethanol Production Capacity Source: Renewable Fuels Association and Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

21 U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol Note: 2008/09 and 2009/10 projected based on the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010. Projections for 2010/11-2018/19 are from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018, February 2009.

22 U.S. Blended Motor Gasoline Consumption Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). 3.4 bil. gal. 9.3 bil. gal. 8.1 bil. gal.

23 U.S. Corn Feed & Residual Use Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

24 Corn Processing Feed Co-product Production Note: Based on food, seed, and industrial use, USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

25 China Corn Production & Consumption Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

26 U.S. and China Corn Yields Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

27 January 12, 2010 World Soybean Production

28 Argentina and Brazil soy production losses set the stage for 2009/10 Million Tons -18 million tons or 660 mil bu

29 Global soybean production rises 20% in 2009/10 Million Tons +43 million tons or 1.6 bil. bu.

30 Global oilseed stocks rebuild after 2-year decline Million Tons +16 mil tons

31 January 12, 2010 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand

32 Lower S. American stocks in Fall 2009 boost U.S. exports in 2009/10 Million Tons -13 million tons or 470 mil bu

33 U.S. Soybean Exports 1.375 bil bushels

34 China soybean imports now account for 54% of global trade Million Tons 42 million tons

35 Global Soybean Exports U.S. gains share vs S. America

36 U.S. Biodiesel Mandate...

37 U.S. Biodiesel Production Capacity Source: NBB website

38 U.S. Domestic Soybean Oil-based Biodiesel Production Margin Dollar per gal. blending credit expired Jan 1

39 Other fats and oils account for about half of total biodiesel production Soybean oil: 84% 2006/07 59% 2007/08 45% 2008/09 Million lbs.

40 In the U.S. canola and palm oil continue to replace soybean oil in the edible use category Billion lbs. Canola + palm = 27% of 3-oil total vs. 13% in 2004/05

41 Brazil, Argentina Industrial Use of Soybean Oil Million Tons

42 Vegetable oil used for EU biofuel production Million Tons 35% of global total

43 January 12, 2010 World Rice Production

44 January 12, 2010 U.S. Meat Production and Prices

45 January 12, 2010 U.S. Milk Supply and Demand

46

47 END

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