1. 1 Using Transit Market Analysis Tools to Evaluate Transit Service Improvements for a Regional Transportation Plan TRB Transportation Applications May 20, 2009 By: Mark Charnews, PhD & Jennifer Ryan, PE Puget Sound Regional Council Liam Hon Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Puget Sound Regional Council

2. 2 PSRC Integrated Urban Models Integrated Models Simulating Persons and Vehicles at a Parcel Level Regional Economic Forecasts Land Use Forecasts Travel Forecasts Benefit-Cost Analysis Transport System Geodatabase Hybrid ActivityUrbanSim PSEF BCA Air Quality Analysis EPA MOVES Alternatives Development Projects TOM IDAS TCI/SPT

3. 3 T2040 Alternatives Development Tools Regional Customization of Various Modeling Tools:  Market Segmentation Attitudinal preference analysis from 2006 Household Survey.  Transit Competitive Index Demand based automated process to combine Census and Employment block data with results of market segmentation to identify most transit competitive O-D pairs within a corridor.  Sketch Planning Tool – Market Analysis Supply based automated process to evaluate changes in ridership within a corridor’s O-D pairings based on travel time changes for all routes.

4. 4 Need for Travel Flexibility Attitudinal Factors from 2006 PSRC Household Survey Time Sensitivity Transit Receptiveness Comfort and Time Use Environmental Consciousness Travel Stress

5. 5 Market Segmentation Transit Receptive All Travelers in the Puget Sound Region High Transit ReceptivenessLow Transit ReceptivenessMedium Transit Receptiveness Need for Travel Flexibility Market Segment Low Need for Flexibility High Need for Flexibility Low Need For Flexibility Medium Need For Flexibility High Comfort Time Use Medium Comfort Time Use High Comfort Time Use Low Comfort Time Use Productive Riders Routine Riders Comfortable Movers Mobile Riders Comfort and Time Use Low Comfort Time Use Medium Comfort Time Use Easy Goers No Frills 9 To 5’ers Low Comfort Time Use Medium Comfort Time Use Comfortable Drivers High Need for Flexibility Multi-trip Drivers

6. 6 Market Segment Size 8% 8.9% 12% 15.1% 10% 6.2% 0% 22.7% 0% 19.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Productive Riders Mobile Riders Routine Riders Comfortable Movers Easy Goers No Frills 9 To 5ers Multi-trip Drivers Comfortable Drivers Percent Incidence 30% 5.2% 20% 22% 30% 4% 34% 12% 10% 0% Transit Percentage 6% 14.1% 6%

7. 7 Interpreting the Transit Competitiveness Index (TCI) TCI shows how competitive transit is relative to auto TCI utilizes road network not transit availability TCI > 100 is transit competitive TCI is proportional to the TAZ’s ability to generate transit trips Transit competitive 0 1-50 50-100 100-200 200-500 500-2,000 >2,000 TCI Production Trip Density Attraction Trip Density Market Segment Concentration Household Income Trip Purposes Congestion Parking Cost

8. 8 Work Trips to Bellevue TCI Results: Bellevue/Redmond corridor very strong work attractor on Eastside Surprisingly strong attraction from North and West Seattle (limited thru bus connections currently) Bellevue Redmond/ Microsoft

9. 9 origin destination Transit Sketch Planning Tool Applies results of market research –Stores existing mode shares –Matches markets with transit service –Segments markets geographically –Inputs service scenarios –Outputs ridership Existing service New direct service bus ridership: +100 daily drive alone: -100 daily

10. 10 SPT Example Ballard to Bellevue CBD

11. 11 Level of Service Menu

12. 12 Use of Level of Service Parameters Bus Rapid Transit – decrease in-vehicle time, increase walk distance both peak and offpeak Transit Signal Priority – decrease in-vehicle time Stop Consolidation – increase walk time, decrease in-vehicle time Fare Change – change travel cost by transit Auto Congestion – increase in-vehicle time auto Direct Transit Service – decrease transfers, decrease in-vehicle time Examples of Transit Service impacts on Level of Service Parameters:

13. 13 Transit Level of Service Peak

14. 14 Results Summary

15. 15 Identified Transit Corridors for Bellevue Example

16. 16 Transit Facilities Example

17. 17 TCI and SPT Applications Used for Transportation 2040 Long Range Plan Update Used to develop ridership estimates for BNSF Commuter Rail Feasibility Study Will be used to develop transit service for Bellevue Multimodal Concurrency Study

18. 18 Questions For more information, contact: Mark Charnews, PhD Senior Modeler Puget Sound Regional Council mcharnews@psrc.org 206-971-3285 Jennifer Ryan, PE Principal Planner jryan@psrc.org 206-405-0542 Liam Hon Associate Cambridge Systematics, Inc. lhon@camsys.com 206-327-9962