1. Evelyn Wright & Dan Loughlin APB/APPCD/NRMRL/ORD/USEPA Presentation to NESCAUM December 18 th, 2003 Example Application: Modeling Trains in Regional MARKAL

2. Regional Transportation: Trains Types of Demand

3. Regional Transportation: Trains Types of Demand Inter-city Trains

4. Regional Transportation: Trains Types of Demand Commuter Trains

5. Regional Transportation: Trains Types of Demand Intra-City Transit

6. Regional Transportation: Trains Build Database TypeFuelEfficiency (bil-pass- mi/PJ) Cost ($bil/bil- pass-mi) Lifespan (years) Demand(t) (bil-pass- mi/yr) Light Duty RailElectricity0.82……TA(t) Heavy Duty RailElectricity1.09……TA(t) Commuter RailElectricity0.98……TB(t) Diesel0.44……TB(t) Inter-city RailElectricity0.66……TC(t) Diesel0.39……TC(t)

7. Regional Transportation Define RES TA TB TC Demand Technology Energy Heavy Rail Light Rail Commuter Rail Electric Commuter Rail Diesel Inter-City Rail Electric Inter-City Rail Diesel Electricity Diesel Intercity Demand Commuter Demand Intracity Demand

8. Regional Transportation What does the model do? TA TB TC Demand Technology Energy Heavy Rail Light Rail Commuter Rail Electric Commuter Rail Diesel Inter-City Rail Electric Inter-City Rail Diesel Electricity Diesel Intercity Demand Commuter Demand Intracity Demand

9. Regional Transportation: Trains Scenarios Base case: * technology choices (types of trains, investment cost, etc.) * fuel usage by type * fuel prices * emissions * ? local emissions ? – depends on detail * ? economic impacts ? – depends on linkage to econ model Construct scenarios to evaluate effects of: * technology changes and emergence of new technologies * changes in energy prices * subsidized ticket prices and/or infrastructure * additional capacity * changes in prices for other transportation modes * mode changes – depends on elasticities, travel demand

10. Regional Transportation: Trains Issues Competition Inter-city Rail: Competes with planes, buses, and autos Commuter Rail: Competes with buses, taxis, and autos Intra-city Rail: Competes with buses, taxis, and autos Could feed same demand pools. Use price elasticities to determine demand for each mode. Need info on purpose of auto, bus travel.

11. Regional Transportation: Trains Issues Time of day: (peak vs. off-peak) Specify peak and off-peak demand Provide peak capacities Rush hour Time

12. Regional Transportation: Trains Issues Geographical Constraints * Limited capacity in existing lines * Limited availability of land for new systems Place constraints in model representing capacity constraints

13. Regional Transportation: Trains Conclusions * Try simple representation first * Characterize -> what is missing -> does it matter? * If “yes”, Prioritize and refine * Level of detail required is a function of objectives -> be flexible, but -> define as early in the process as possible * Remember, /good/ modeling is inherently iterative