1. Why Do People Vote, and Does it Matter if They Don’t? Michael Alvarez PS 120

2. Why Don’t Americans Vote?  Long and complex ballots (many candidates, many seats, initiatives)  Lack of campaign activity and mobilization  Disaffection, loss of trust in government, alienation  Legal and institutional barriers

3. Voting in Recent American Presidential Elections Note: Percentage of voting age population (CPS) ??

4. Turnout in Recent CA Elections

5. Turnout (of Registered Voters) in Two Recent Local Elections

6. Puzzles  Why is turnout so low?  Why is turnout lower in local relative to national elections?  Why is turnout declining in recent decades?  Who votes and who does not?  Does low turnout matter, empirically or normatively?

7. A Model for Voter Turnout  “Calculus of Voting” (Riker and Ordeshook 1968) V = pB - C V = pB - C V = pB - C + D V = pB - C + D p = probability of vote “mattering” p = probability of vote “mattering” B = “utility” benefit of voting B = “utility” benefit of voting C = costs of voting C = costs of voting D = citizen duty, goodwill feeling D = citizen duty, goodwill feeling

8. Comparative Statics  Ceteris paribus:  increases in p lead to increased turnout  increases in B lead to increased turnout  increases in C lead to decreased turnout  increases in D lead to increased turnout

9. This Model Presents the Basic Dilemma  Generally speaking, p will be zero in most elections  Also, benefits will be low and costs high  So unless “duty” is a very important factor to many people, we should expect to see low turnout

10. Citizenship and Registration Matter Millions, 2004 U.S. Presidential Election (CPS) 216 197 142

11. Citizenship, Race and Voting 2004 Presidential Election

12. Who is registered and voting  Demographics of registration and voting  2004 Presidential Election  Two statistics  % registered for each group, of CVAP  % voting for each group, of CVAP

13. Who Votes: Race/Ethnicity % of CVAP

14. Who Votes: Gender % of CVAP

15. Who Votes: Age % of CVAP

16. Who Votes: Education % of CVAP

17. Who Votes: Residential Mobility % of CVAP

18. So who votes?  Citizens who are registered  Whites  Higher levels of educational attainment (and of course income)  Older citizens  Long-time residents

19. Reasons for not voting, 2004 Percentages of registered non-voters, 2004

20. Education and Reasons for not voting, 2004 Percentages of registered non-voters, 2004

21. Education and Reasons for not voting, 2004 Percentages of registered non-voters, 2004

22. So, why is turnout “so low”?  Costs:  Initial cost of registration  Continual cost of remaining registered  Information and access costs Fact: most REGISTERED voters participate in presidential elections And as these costs (i.e., registration) are things we can influence through policy... And as these costs (i.e., registration) are things we can influence through policy...

23. Efforts to Lower Costs  Same day registration; easing of registration regulations  Expansion of ballot access --- absentee or mail balloting, other mechanisms (internet)

24. Same-day registration  Something Maine, Minnesota, and Wisconsin adopted in the 1970’s (North Dakota does not have voter registration)  Something Idaho, New Hampshire, and Wyoming adopted in the late 1990’s  Used in the 1980’s in Oregon  Was a ballot initiative in 2002 in California and Colorado

25. Registration and Turnout in Selected States, 2004

26. EDR’s Estimated Impact in California Estimated Increases in CA 2000 turnout, Alvarez-Ansolabehere 2002.

27. Does low turnout matter substantively?  Demographic differences between who votes and who does not indicate there might be substantial impacts on representation  After all, do you think that you have the same interests as people three decades or more older than you????

28. Nonvoters, voters and age (2004 presidential)

29. Nonvoters, voters and education (2004 presidential)

30. Does low turnout matter?  Impacts the legitimacy of the electoral process  Lessens citizen’s connection to political world  One of many civic values in decline, intertwined with other declining civic values (especially participation in other public groups)

31. But …  Registration and voting is so easy now …  If we keep making it easier we lessen the security of elections  Informational differences between voters and non-voters

32. One empirical puzzle  Few studies have been able to show a clear bias in political representation due to turnout  There are only slight policy differences found in most studies between who votes and who does not  Perhaps non-voter interests are articulated to some extent in the political system?

33. Does low turnout matter normatively?  Should we be concerned when about 50% of the eligible electorate casts votes for president? When only a small fraction of registered citizens votes in local races?  Should great effort be extended to “bring back the non-voters?”