1. Future Challenges Population

2. Students Learn about current and future population trends: growth rates, age structure and spatial distribution DONE in population unit government population policies to manage population growth implications of population trends: ecological sustainability population movement and urban planning

3. Students Learn to identify and discuss government population policies: growth rates DONE Refugees DONE migration DONE analyse current and future population trends and their implications

4. Describe the current trends in Australia’s population growth. Australia’s population is currently growing at its fastest rate in almost 20 yrs. Australia’s population is currently growing at its fastest rate in almost 20 yrs with the most recent increase of 1.5% or 318,500 people to September 2007 The federal Government’s baby bonus had helped lift the nation's fertility rate from a record low of 1.73 in 2001 to 1.81 in the latest census in 2006 The Government is encouraging migrants because of the skills shortage. China and India are becoming increasingly important contributors to our migrant intake. Net overseas migration contributed 56% to the total population growth which translates to a record net 177,600 migrating to Australia.

5. Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2005 Source: ABS 1986 and Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

6. Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2004 Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins Expectation of Life at Birth MalesFemales 1947 66.1 70.6 2004 78.1 83.0

7. Expectation of Life at Birth MalesFemales 1947 66.1 70.6 2004 78.1 83.0

8. Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2004 Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues

9. Australia: Annual Migration, 1850-2005 Source: Price 1979; Hugo 1986; ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures Bulletins; DIMA 2000, 2002; DIMIA Movements Data Base

10. From Pyramid to Coffin Changing Age Structure of the Australian Population, 1925-2045 Source: Productivity Commission 2005

12. ABS Labour force projections 3222.0 Population projections

14. Australia’s Population Issues Numbers of People Age Structure – Ageing Distribution

15. Projections of Australia’s Aged and Working Age Population Source: ABS Number by Age Year0-1415-6465+ 65+ as % 15-64 20033,981,53813,344,6852,546,42 3 19.1 20113,840,00014,532,9003,155,60021.7 20213,752,70015,172,3004,443,40 0 29.3 20313,826,40015,348,1005,741,00037.4 Annual Growth Rate (%) 2003-11-0.451.072.72 2011-21-0.230.433.48 2021-31+0.190.122.60

16. Planning Implications: The National Level Projections of Commonwealth Demographic Spending (Percent of GDP) Source: Costello, 2002, 59

18. Policy Implications How Can the Effects of Ageing be Offset? Need to increase productivity Role of immigration, especially in short term Increase age at retirement Increase participation rates at younger ages

19. Implications of population trends Very debatable Some economists/politicians believe that Australia’s population growth will result in resource creation, and economic growth and that technology will be able to overcome the environmental problems created by the increase in population. In contrast, some scientists/ ecologists believe that population growth will only worsen the problems of resource depletion, water availability and quality, land degradation, pollution and habitat loss.

20. Australia has little chance of altering its population growth rate by natural means in the near future, but is can decide on the number of immigrants allowed to enter the country. Without an immigration intake Australia’s population would grow very slowly and may even start to decline. Economists argue that this would limit Australia’s economic potential and result in a decline in living standards.

21. Population and Environment There are real environmental constraints on population growth in Australia. Water Soil and Land Global warming – Greenhouse Gases Biodiversity Pollution

22. Implications of population trends: Ecological sustainability There are environmental constraints on population growth in Australia Little is known of the relationship between population and environment and there is a need for an evidence base to inform policy Australia needs a population policy

23. Population change in Australia should be compatible with sustainable development - meet basic needs of all citizens - give all citizens opportunity to develop and realise their individual potential - should not endanger the natural systems that support life on earth

24. Australia’s Population Policy Should Aim at Working Towards: Achieving a stable population with a balance between working and non-working age groups. Enhancing the productivity of the population. Achieving a spatial distribution of the population which is compatible with long-term sustainability, economic efficiency and social wellbeing.

25. Conclusion Population and ageing issues in Australia is manageable. Not as extreme as Europe or Japan. There is a breathing space period to put policies in place to successfully confront ageing.

28. Population Movement and urban planning ABC podcast 20 Oct 2008 http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audi o/pm/200810/20081020-pm07- sydney2036.mp3http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audi o/pm/200810/20081020-pm07- sydney2036.mp3 http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/200 8/s2396385.htm Accompanying transcripthttp://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/200 8/s2396385.htm