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NCEP Site Update WG-CSAB – Spring 2010 Allan Darling Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations April 7-8, 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "NCEP Site Update WG-CSAB – Spring 2010 Allan Darling Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations April 7-8, 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 NCEP Site Update WG-CSAB – Spring 2010 Allan Darling Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations Allan.Darling@noaa.gov April 7-8, 2010

2 CSAB Spring 2010 2 Computing Capability IBM POWER6 P575 – per-site architecture  156 POWER6 32-way Nodes  4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz  69.7 Tflops Linpack sustained  20 Terabytes total memory  330 Terabytes total disk space  Single 13 PB tape archive

3 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010 3 CCS Upgrade  IBM Power 6 (P6) system installed and accepted at backup site - December 2008  Operational model suite transition complete at backup site - June 2009  IBM P6 system installed and accepted at primary site - June 2009  Operational model suite transition complete at primary site - July 2009  Final system testing and failover testing complete - August 2009  Transition to operations August 12, 2009

4 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010 4 Resource Utilization Previous production system

5 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010 5 Resource Utilization P6 system

6 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010 6 NCEP Supercomputing Performance Growth

7 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010 7 Product On-Time Percentage Yearly Average 2006: 99.42% 2007: 99.70% 2008: 99.82% 2009: 99.85%

8 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010 8 2010 System/Operations Initiatives Model Implementation  Streamline implementation process– launches this year Production Supercomputers  Additional 100TB disk storage (multicluster-GPFS) pending funding – this year  New Operational Supercomputer acquisition and transition – 2012-2013

9 9 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Weather and Climate Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Land Surface Ocean Waves Tropical Cyclone Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -HWRF Global Ensemble Forecast System April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

10 10  Upgrade models: WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM  Increase horizontal resolution:  ARW (45 km to 35 km)  NMM (40 km to 32 km)  RSM (40 km to 32 km)  Total Membership = 21:  Adding 4 WRF  Reduces Eta by 4 members  For the 3 RSM members: replace Zhou cloud with Ferrier  Use Global Ensemble Transform (ET) perturbations for the 10 WRF members  Increase output frequency from every 3 hr to hourly for 1st 39hr (for SPC, AWC)  Add/fix/unify variables in SREF output  radar (composite reflectivity + echo top) (for FAA)  unify PBL height diagnosis with critical Ri (aviation)  fix cloud base (aviation)  BUFR broken out into individual station time-series (SPC) Upgrades to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) System Implemented 27 October 2009 model (dash) output (black solid) April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

11 11 GSI 3D-VAR Implemented 15 December 2010  Assimilate:  NOAA-19 AMSU- A/B, HIRS  RARS 1b data  NOAA-18 SBUV/2 and OMI  Improved use of GPS RO observations April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

12 12 Global Ensemble Forecast System System Implemented 23 February 2010  Upgrade horizontal resolution from T126 to T190  4 cycles per day, 20+1 members per cycle  Up to 384 hours (16 days)  Use 8 th order horizontal diffusion for all resolutions  Improved forecast skills and ensemble spread  Add stochastic perturbation scheme to account for random model errors  Increased ensemble spread and forecast skill (reliability)  Add new variables (27 more) to pgrba files  Based on user request  From current 52 (variables) to future 79 (variables)  For NAEFS ensemble data exchange April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

13 13 North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)  Collaboration between NCEP, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), FNMOC and Mexico Weather Service  Elements:  Demonstrate value of Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)  Engage in collaborative software development, focused on postprocessing products from an arbitrary number of forecast systems  Establish operational data transfer  Application to operational products with shared software  Continue to monitor value-added with MME strategy  Global ensemble products  NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)  operational in NAEFS  20 members -16 days  CMC  operational in NAEFS  20 members - 16 days  FNMOC  experimental in NAEFS  16 members – 10 days April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

14 14 Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS 2m Temperature X April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

15 15  Modify GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL  GSI/GFS Resolution Increase  T382 (~35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L GFS Plans for FY10 Scheduled June 2010 Updated GFS physics package eliminates grid-point precipitation “bombs” Observed Operational GFS Upgraded Physics GFS 24 h accumulated precip ending 12 UTC 14 July 2009 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

16 16 2009 Implementations GFS -New data sources and improved numerical techniques in the GSI -Unified post-processor for GFS and GDAS -Accuracy in formulation of some diagnostic variables improved -Additional parameters added to products 1 st Qtr FY1012/15/09 HWRF - Structural changes only, no scientific upgrade 1 st Qtr FY1011/24/09 GEFS - Increase horizontal resolution T126->T190 for 4 daily cycles out to 384H; use 8th horizontal diffusion for all horizontal resolutions; introduce stochastic perturbation scheme 2 nd Qtr FY10 2/23/10 RUC - Extend forecast 18H; provide output every hour of forecast period 2 nd Qtr FY10 3/02/10 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

17 17 2010 Implementations ChangePlannedActual RTMA - Add Guam 2.5 km NDFD grid; reduce RTMA grid spacing: CONUS from 5 km to 2.5 km, AK from 6 km to 3 km 3 rd Qtr FY10 AQM - Add Ozone for AK; ozone and smoke for HI; add HYSPLIT smoke run for Hawaii; add CMAQ (sfc ozone) runs for AK and HI 3 rd Qtr10 HYSPLIT - Upgrade dispersion model; include advanced physics, transport mechanisms, capability to deal with dust 4 th Qtr10 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

18 18 2010 Implementations ChangePlannedActual Global Multi-Grid Wave Model - Generate GRIB2 output earlier in run; increase internal spectral model resolution; increase spectral resolution of point output 2 nd Qtr FY10 Hurricane Wave Model - Upgrade to new multi-grid model running global NAH and NPH grids as a single model 2 nd Qtr FY10 RTOFS - Add Jason-2 altimeter data; incremental upgrade of data assimilation schemes 1 st Qtr FY10 11/03/09 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

19 19 2010 Implementations ChangePlannedActual GFS Horizontal Resolution Increase to T574 (27 km) with upgraded physics package NOTE: Format of 0.5 & 1.0 Grids will not change, but size and content of sigma or gaussian grid files will change. Details will be contained in forthcoming TIN. 3 rd Qtr FY10 HWRF Modified initialization and surface physics Couple with HYCOM 3 rd Qtr FY09 GEFS - NAEFS: Downscaling for Alaska - NAEFS: Inclusion of FNMOC Ensembles - 3-D mask for ET with rescaling, auto adjust stochastic perturbations 2 nd Qtr FY10 4 th Qtr FY10 RUC - Rapid Refresh - WRF ARW Based 4 th Qtr FY10 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

20 20 2010 Implementations ChangePlannedActual RTMA - CONUS upgrade to 2.5 km, AK 3 km - Shift AK RTMA Grid 4 th Qtr FY10 AQM - Extended CONUS AQFS (ozone) to HI - CONUS dust &/or smoke 3 rd Qtr FY10 HYSPLIT - CONUS dust3 rd Qtr FY10 April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010 See http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ for change descriptions and Technical Information Notices (TINs)

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