2. Composition of the Threat Terrorist Groups State Actors/Military Other (Piracy, Criminal) General Trends – Attacks increasing – Targets – Locations Trend: No recent attacks on maritime infrastructure in the Arabian Gulf 2

3. Al-Qaeda / ISIL Threat Trend Motive – Doctrinal – Economic – Strategic Access – Unstable regions/insurgencies – ISIL lacks access to S. Iraq / Arabian Gulf Capability – No attacks on oil platforms since 2004 3 Strong motive; partial access; modest capability Notable Incidents ‒July 2010, AQ suicide boat attack on M/V M. STAR ‒April 2004, coordinated AQ attack on ABOT and KAAOT

4. Iranian Military Threat Trend Motive – Lacking at this time – Engaged in multiple diplomatic efforts – Marketing navies as “protectors” – Subject to change Access – Full access to infrastructure throughout Gulf – Expanding ranges of stand-off weapons – Increasing naval reach Capability – Largest, most active naval forces in Gulf – Ballistic missiles range coastal infrastructure – Robust maritime special operations forces – Historical experience of infrastructure seizure Notable Incident – August 2006, Iranian Navy attacks Orizont offshore oil rig – April 1998, Iranian Navy attacks ships/ rig in UAE oil field – November 1980, Iranian commandos destroy 2 Iraqi OPLATs 4 No current motive; broad access; robust capability