1. The affordability of private rents in Scotland Steve Wilcox Centre for Housing Policy University of York

2. Affordability of private rents in Scotland House prices and mortgage costs Growth of the private rented sector Trends in private rents Affordability of private rents Housing market prospects Local Housing Allowance issues

3. Housing market affordability in Scotland All full time earnings and first time buyer house prices

4. Rapid growth in PRS in Scotland - but not in lettings to HB claimants

5. Private renting important for movers and mobility Source : SHS, 2005

6. Growth in new buy to let mortgages Source : CML website : New advances per half year

7. Little change in household dwelling balances over last fifteen years

8. Little difference in recent household growth and net house building

9. Impact of PRS growth on house prices Source : NPHAU

10. Competitiveness with ownership Both part of problem and solution Typically cheaper to rent than to buy but - some qualitative differences - variability between areas Competitive with shared ownership

11. House prices, mortgage costs, rents and earnings compared (1994 = 100) First time buyer house prices and mortgage costs

12. Percentages Rents as a percentage of mortgage costs Hometrack, 2006

13. Mortgage cost to earnings ratios Household Earnings (Can rent; can’t buy) 2006

14. Private rent to earnings ratios Household Earnings (Can rent; can’t buy); LRR/LHA Rents 2006

15. Rents compared to mortgage costs 2006

16. Size of landlord portfolios Source : Crooks et al 1993/94 & 1998; CLG Surveys 2001 onwards

17. Gross returns on Investment Source : Paragon Mortgages

18. Net (pre tax) returns on Investment Source : IPD Index

19. Competitiveness with social renting Social renting generally less expensive - but not everywhere Consumer choice rather than allocations No constraints based on current location Alternative local logics of homeless, waiting list and HB/PRS support Appropriate for mobile single households

20. Some policy issues Cost effectiveness of PRS and social renting supply for low income households Market cycles and housing policies Rationale for shared ownership? Issues for levels of social sector rents The LHA roll out & HB Review

21. HB cases as a percentage of total PRS 2006