1. 1 Sustainable aquaculture trade Meeting on Fisheries, Trade and Development Geneva 16 June 2010 Dr. Audun Lem, FAO

2. 2 Outline World fish supply and demand –utilization and consumption –trade –prices –distribution Rise of aquaculture Conclusions

3. 3 WORLD FISH SUPPLY

4. 4 World fish production Million t200820092010e2010/ 2009 Capture90 (0.1%) Farmed5354563.1% Total1421441451.1%

5. 5 FAO World Fish Production catch aquaculture

6. 6 Fish Utilization Food uses Feed

7. 7 Per caput food supply (est) Kg/year2008200920102010/09 Food fish 17.1 0.2% Capture9.39.29.1-1.3% Farmed7.87.98.11.9%

8. 8 Fish in overall protein supply

9. 9 World aquaculture production 1950- 2010: strong growth but slowing down aquaculture

10. 10 Aquaculture producers 2008 China

11. 11 Asia incl. China

12. 12 WORLD TRADE

13. 13 World Fish Trade: Export Value - in 1000 USD - developing developed

14. 14 WORLD FISH EXPORTS USD 102.2 BILLION (2008) TRADE GROWING UNTIL ‘08 –+ 9 % (2008/2007) 2008 EXPORTS & IMPORTS > USD 100 BILL for 1 st time DEVELOPING COUNTRIES –50 % OF WORLD EXPORTS NET EXPORT REVENUES FROM FISHERIES CRUCIAL FOR MANY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES –USD 26 bill. (2008)

15. 15 WORLD FISH EXPORTS USD 94.5 BILLION (2009est) TRADE CRASHED IN 2009 (est 12 months) –- 7.5 % values –- 0.6 % volume (live weight conversion) est. 2009 EXPORTS USD 94.5 BILLION est. 2009 IMPORTS USD 98.6 BILLION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES –2009: 51.7 % OF WORLD EXPORTS

16. 16 Share of world fisheries production destined to exports Million tonnes (live weight)

17. 17 Main fish exporters 2008 (value)

18. 18 Main fish importers (2008) Japan USD 14.5 bill.13.8 % USUSD 14.1 bill.13.5 % EUUSD 45.0 bill.46.8 % Total big 3USD 73.6 bill.68.1 % Total worldUSD 108 bill. 100 %

19. 19 Main fish importers (2009/2008) Japan USD 13.2 bill. - 9 % USUSD 13.1 bill. - 7 % EUUSD 39.5 bill. -13 % Total big 3USD 65.8 bill.- 11 % Total worldUSD 98.5 bill. -8.8%

20. 20 Fish market trends Japan: long-term decline but small rebound 2008, decline in 2009 –high consumption but falling: 65 kg/kaput –imports below 3 million tons in 2007 USA: long-term growth, will overtake Japan as # 1 country –rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg consumer confidence falling late 2008 and 2009 2010 turn-around EU: long-term growth: # 1 market –expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg –rising imports: e.g. catfish from Viet Nam, mussels from Chile

21. 21 Distribution 66 % of world imports by three markets within these markets: supermarkets represent 50- 85 % of retail sales concentration of sales whereas industry remains fragmented tendency in developing countries: urbanization at the same time: seafood retail net margins reportedly low compared to other food products

22. 22 Future ? Supply side: more concentration in aquaculture for some species (salmon, European bass/bream, turbot. Shrimp ?) –focus on costs, economies of scale –focus on marketing and distribution –market and product segmentation Demand: retail concentration in developed and developing But aquaculture has some advantages over wild: –standardized product, size –traceability –predictability –contracts on price and volumes

23. 23 ISSUES OF IMPACT

24. 24 Global trend of outsourcing of both production and processing Asia (China, Thailand, Viet Nam) but also –Morocco (canning) –Poland/Baltic countries (marinades, smoking) Growing share of production in developing countries, esp. of aquaculture –Europe, North America and Japan import farmed products from Asia, South And Central America

25. 25 Role of China in production

26. 26 The next China: Viet Nam 2008: Nr 5 among world exporters –much of which is farmed: catfish, shrimp –but a growing importer as well reprocessing domestic consumption

27. 27 Commodity prices fish versus other food ?

28. 28 Food prices, excl. fish

29. 29 And fish ?

30. 30 The FAO Fish price index; (1998-2000 = 100)

31. 31 FUTURE FISH PRICES ? DEMAND: slowly rising –because of population growth –small underlying increase in per kaput consumption SUPPLY –capture: stable, not increasing –aquaculture: increasing but declining growth –unknowns: climate change, disease, but also technology improvements PRICE IMPACT ? –most probably slightly higher fish prices but not much –price cycles in commodity markets –industry profitability through product development, technological innovation and cost reduction, targeted marketing

32. 32 AQUACULTURE FUTURE fastest growing food producing sector in the world accounts for almost 50% of the global food fish 53 million tons of fish produced worth USD 98 billion (2008) Given the projected population growth, an additional 40 million tons of aquatic food needed by 2030 to maintain current per caput consumption.

33. 33 Sustainable trade Trade in fish is governed by WTO trade rules (NAMA) Sustainability issues: –how to ensure sustainable production ? –how to ensure sustainable aquaculture development ? –how to ensure sustainable aquaculture trade ?

34. 34 Aquaculture development many countries prioritize an export driven aquaculture development –export markets, economic activities but other elements are essential as well –social issues –environmental issues for long-term sustainable growth, all three elements must be included –an ecosystem based development NB: Aquaculture development is also a societal choice

35. 35 FAO Guidelines Responsible fish trade. FAO Technical Guidelines for Responsible Fisheries. No. 11. Rome, FAO. 2009 Draft guidelines: The ecosystem approach to aquaculture (EAA) Draft guidelines for Aquaculture certification –on agenda for COFI-AQ in September 2010

36. 36 CONCLUSIONS Fish has always been a globalized commodity –but of higher importance for developing countries than most other commodities Fish production is increasing, but only thanks to aquaculture: 47% share in 2009 in food fish Fish trade trend is positive: USD 100 billion in 2008, but drop in 2009 New growth in trade in 2010 Fish trade: big 3 import 66 % but in decline Outsourcing of production and processing –Rise of China and Viet Nam, and Russia –Future: India ? Aquaculture will determine overall future supply –the ecosystem approach to aquaculture focuses on the environmental context including the rights of stakeholders –sustainable aquaculture development must build on inclusion of economic, social and environmental criteria

37. 37 THANK YOU