1. October 30, 2007OFCM/CCAMS The Need for Climate-related Extreme Event Information for Aviation Mary M. Cairns Senior Staff Meteorologist OFCM Aviation Program Lead

2. October 30, 2007OFCM/CCAMS Background Issues Approximately 70% of air traffic delays are caused by weather, at a cost of about $6 billion per year –Each minute of delay costs ~$50 per minute per flight The National Airspace System is a reactive system today –Convection –Snowstorms (e.g., east coast) –Hurricane Katrina –Southern California fires –Volcanic ash –Extended heat events

3. October 30, 2007OFCM/CCAMS Aviation Needs “Issues to think about” Extreme events – how are they defined? –Meteorologically or Impact? Intensity vs. Frequency –One major snowstorm, or many snowstorms at a particular critical level at an airport? Fog? –Landfalling hurricanes? –El Nino => increase in severe weather means increased thunderstorms and more delays? Monitoring/prediction of extremes for increased CO 2 (e.g., contrails)

4. October 30, 2007OFCM/CCAMS Summary Weather impacts aviation safety and efficiency Climate-related extreme impacts (and related services) need further examination Currently, “climate” is not included in JPDO aviation weather plans for the future (missed opportunity?) * –Emissions * exception could be DoD