1. INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS April 2012 12 th UAP National Convention Pasay City Philippines Gaëtan Siew UIA P President GLOBALTRENDS GLOBAL TRENDS “It is not a matter of predicting the future, but of being prepared for it” Pericles (500-429 BC) Greek politician and commander

2. Key Points 1.The World World of Contrasts Urban World Mobile world Refuge Blocks Global players Global issues /Crisis Global Imbalances 2.Global Trends Mobility Digital Era Identity –Culture 3.Lessons ? Innovate. Integrate.Inspire Global Trends INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS

3. A World of Contrasts INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Sao Paulo, Brazil North– Old and Fragile South – Young and Poor South 90% < 25 years Jodhpur, India Rich/poor Knowledge Digital Fracture World 7,0 bn population 5,6 bn mobiles 1,4 bn tv 2,5 bninternet 0,8 bn Facebook Philippines 101,8 m population 75,0 m mobiles 15,8 m tv 29,7 m internet 27,0 m Facebook

4. An Urban World INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS The World 2007 : > 50% urban population Monster or sustainable cities ? + 3 b people in South Cities by 2050 500 000 slum dwellers /month Heritage at risk Sao Paulo, Brazil An Urban World Population m Tokyo 35.2 Jakarta 22,0 Bombay 21,2 Delhi 21,0 Manila 20,8 New York 20,6 Sao Paulo 20,2 Seoul 19,9 Mexico 18,7 Shanghai 18.4 Cairo 17,3 PUB b € Tokyo 1 191 New York 1 133 Los Angeles 639 Paris 460 Chicago 460 Londres 452 Osaka-Kobe 341 Mexico 315 Philadelphia 312 Washington 299

5. A World of mobility INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS 6 % The world Population – 2008 2020 : 15% of EU population from Africa Delocalisation v/s immigration Climate refugees Mass tourism Retired living 2 summers Expats for Creative cities Nomads, Mali A Mobile World People – Ideas - Goods Hanoi, Vietnam Brain drain/ Brain gain Villes concurrentes

6. A World of refuge blocks INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Diversity Regionalisation By Region By Culture By Trade By Geopolitics By Vector/Medium

7. INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Emerging nations BRICS + CIVETS 2011 : FDI 78 000 billions US$ Networks Power Multinationals World Finance Civil Society NGOs A World of Global Players Global Entreprises Exxon – Apple – Toyota - Nokia Vectors of norms New kind of economy based on networks New principlesNew principles New ways of creating valuesNew ways of creating values 2009 Aspen : Africa >>> Germany China : S Mall++ India: Cinema ++ Dubai: Towerr ++ Mexico: Richest Man ++

8. A World of Global Issues and Crisis INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Climate Change Cultural Diversity Economic Crisis Food crisis Land ownership Climate refugees Bangladesh Abandoned city Texas, USA 5 Questions World crisis or temporary discomfort ? US diminishing presence? Chinese growth continues? EU Implosion or Consensus? Arab spring Explosion or New Democracy?

9. Global Trends Technological progress Global imbalances Health and Pandemias Increasing Mobility Environment Decline Identity v/s Globalisatio Identity v/s Globalisation INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS

11. Specific Trends for the Trade Asymmetrical Market Sustainability Opportunities Retired population market Mass Tourism Cultural projects INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Louvre Abu Dhabi

12. Specific Trends for the Profession Asymmetrical Market Sustainability Opportunities From 1,5 to 3m architects 2015: Over 50% women architects INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS 2010 China 1 m² out of 2 m² 50% of the 70%

13. US 2007 international architectural fees = 2,8 billions € Exporters N America 1,2 %, Asia 6,1 %, East EU 4,5 %,West EU 1,8 %, S America 3,9 %, M East Africa 4,2 %, Specific Trends for the Profession INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS 2010 TOP SECTORS of the top 10 firms Business Parks 930m$ Education 429m$ Cultural124m$ Criminal Justice113m$ Defence 45m$

14. Outsourcing India 4 %, of all IT Services Growth 8% to 20% in 2010 Specific Trends for the Profession INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS

15. MOBILITY - PIG : People – Ideas - Goods Global Trends : MOBILITY - PIG : People – Ideas - Goods Mobility Air Travel Intermodal container Cyberspace Global hubs INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Choking cities Jakarta – Up to 10h/day India - $6b/year Bogota TransMilenio 400km by 2012 Curitiba – 1100 km : 2m pax 2015: 600 m living 2 summers 2020: 1,6 b tourists2010: $ 460 b remittance - 230 m people HNI : with nomad tools Urban mobility Management models MIT + Singapore

16. Digital Era Death of distance? Mobility accelerator New organisation of space INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Increased productivity/efficiency Online database Health identifier Distance learning Exchange accelerator Mobile meteo for African farmers Internet / Facebook revolution Wikileaks : Big brother II DIGITAL ERA Global Trends : DIGITAL ERA

17. Identity - Culture INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS March 2011 Rio carnival Rio carnival Francophony day Francophony day Haiku – World Poetry Day Haiku – World Poetry Day IDENTITY - CULTURE Global Trends : IDENTITY - CULTURE Bilbao Singapore –National Art Gallery Hybrid/Fusion = Innovation

18. Lessons ? INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Think outside the box New Model Connecting mobilities, affinities, identities, languages Understanding a globalized, integrated, collaborative world Sharing new mobility (knowledge/resources) Designing necessity into beauty

19. Shi Shei Gratias Obrigado Merci Spasiba Thank you Shoukran INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Gaëtan Siew Past President