1. Socio-Economic Aspects of Foresight UNIDO -Training Course on Technology Foresight for Practitioners Prague, 6-10 Otober 2003 Martin Potůček, CESES, Prague, Czech Republic

2. Content: Why focusing on Socio-Economic Aspects of Foresight? Conceptual model of the development at the national level Priority problems Strategic conceptions Presentation of priority problems and/or strategic conceptions developed by participants´ teams

3. The alternative ways of accessing R&D priorities Science-push approach: needs of knowledge driven by curiosity, vested interests of scientists and research institutions Science-pull approach: priorities generated by assessed (present and future) needs of economy and society …experience from the Czech Republic

4. Základní souvislosti vývoje České společnosti a její modernizace v globálním kontextu C4 Preparation C3 Regulatory C2 Development of C1 Forming of national B1 SOCIAL COHESION for the entrance power constitutional, legal and culture, B2 KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY into EU of the market, political system of the national identity B3 LABOR MARKET, EMPLOYMENT AND EMPLOYABILITY and full- fledged state and civic country, space for and national interests B4 POPULATION DEVELOPMENT, HEALTH, FAMILY AND HOUSING membership sector in mutual public participation in the context of B5 INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL SAFETY in EU relations in policy- making human values B6 ENVIRONMENT, TERRITORIAL POTENTIALS OF DEVELOPMENT A Quality and sustain- ability of life B7 Economic development Conceptual model of the society Caption: A – Criteria block B – Developmental potentials C – Formative regulators

5. General criteria of the development: Quality of life Sustainability of life Economic development Others: standard of living, peace, human values, employment, social cohesion, cultural heritage…? …controversies

6. Developmental potentials B1 Social cohesion B2 Knowledge society B3 Labor market, employment and employability B4 Demographic development, health, family, and housing B5 Internal and external security B6 Environment, territorial potentials of development (B7 Economic development) …controversies

7. Formative regulators C1 Forming of national culture, national identity and national interests in the context of human values C2 Development of constitutional, legal and political system of the country, space for public participation in policy-making C3 Tuning regulatory power of market, state and civic sector in mutual relations C4 Preparation for the entrance into EU and full-fledged membership in EU

8. Methods of inductive aggregation of socio-economic priorities Definition, identification, elaboration and example of priority problems Definition, identification, elaboration and example of strategic conceptions … definition, identification, elaboration and example of strategic moves)

9. Identification of priority problems Priority problems (PPs) = discrepancies between the present and desirable states of certain conditions of life in economy and society Definition of the PP What societal tension is in the core of the PP Why PP is really a priority one Location of the PP within the conceptual model Proposal of the (alternative) way(s) of the solution of PP Potential of R&D to solve the PP

10. An example of the priority problem PP: Growing social inequalities induced by different qualifications, experience, use and direct access to the information and communication technologies (ICT) Potential of R&D to solve the PP: Development of the hardware, software and communication means that are user-friendly, easily accessible and cheap Development of educational methods that will ease the mastering of ICTs

11. Identification of strategic conceptions Strategic conceptions (SCs) = relatively complex action priorities, e.g. priorities able to solve the entire group of PPs Definition of the SC PPs which are to be solved by the SC Nature and mechanism(s) of the solution represented by the SC Elements and steps of the SC Main actors involved in the realization of the SC The specific place of R&D in the realization of the SC

12. An example of the strategic conception - definition SC: REFORM OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR The public sector has not still undergone a satisfactory functional transformation from the structure imprinted by the Communist regime. The reform of the public sector as a complex process of political, legislative, administrative and institutional transformations will prepare the ground for the public services which would be provided efficiently, in correspondent quality and would be generally accessible.

13. An example of the strategic conception – the place of R&D SC: REFORM OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR Research on capacities of Public Policy and Administration dealing with the public interests at central, regional and municipal level Research on legal framework securing the protection of human rights Research on the system of public finance compatible with market economy, political democracy, quality and sustainability of life Sectoral research of public services (health care, education, social services…)

14. How to match PPs and SCs with R&D priorities PPs and SCs are able to identify core needs of economy and society. Some of them can be easily associated with R&D potentials/priorities. In other cases there are either alternative ways of exploitation of R&D potentials, or there is no potential available There may be R&D targets without clear impact on covering core needs of economy and society… There may be unknown and/or unexpected positive and/or negative consequences of R&D …controversies

15. References Potůček, M.: Priority Problems and Strategic Concepts of the Development if the Czech Republic. In: National Visions and Strategies. Soul, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, OECD & World bank 2003, pp. 193-230 Průvodce krajinou priorit pro Českou republiku. Praha: Gutenberg 2002. (Guide to the Priorities for the Czech Republic, in Czech, a short English summary.) Travelling in the Czech Future. Praha, Gutenberg 2003. (In Czech, an extended English summary.) For further references, see the website of the Center for Social and Economic Strategies: http://ceses.cuni.cz