1. Will and Skill: Aligning Educational Initiatives with the Texas Labor Market Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105

2. Themes of the day The Texas and most regional economies are stronger than the U.S., but Texas is subject to the same global macroeconomic forces as other parts of the U.S. Globalization is influencing job creation; type and number Demographic shifts are changing the face of the Texas labor market – where we live, what we look like Nobody lives in Texas: every region is a different economy Recent Texas job growth has been largely fueled by: Population growth, the Oil & gas cluster and Professional Technical Services Occupational demand is more bifurcated. Skill sets over job titles The current alignment between labor market demand and education outputs is less than perfect In the end, getting a job is all about balancing Will and Skill

3. Harry Truman is purported to have said, All my economists say, “on the one, or on the other hand” …what I really need is a one- handed economist Growth Recession

4. U.S Jobs Recovery from the Great Recession

5. The Macroeconomy: Headwinds & Tailwinds Rising healthcare costs, federal fiscal uncertainties, low confidence in our federal politicians Slow global demand, slow U.S. economy, Japanese & European recession, slower Chinese GDP growth Structural employment changes slow worker uptake Slow but consistent economic and job growth The Wealth Effect is driving consumer confidence Pent up demand: Delayed TX household formation Pent up finances: A) Cheap money, B) Excess bank reserves, corporate cash, consumers hoard cash Headwinds Tailwinds

6. Awash in Liquidity: Money on the Sidelines Corporate profits Excess Bank Reserves M1Cash

7. Emerging Patterns in Quits and Layoffs (Feb 2013)

9. Practices affecting job growth and worker preparation 1. Money economy are labor market are decoupling Who’s making money vs. Who’s creating jobs? 2. Technological obsolescence & Labor substitution Technology replacing both workers or specific skills 3. Emergence of new & blended occupations New “hybrid” jobs that combine work activities from 2 or more traditional occupations into a single “new” job 4. Work Activity Off-loading - passing off lower value- added work to assistants/technicians. See Paralegals, Physicians Assistants, Physical Therapy Assistants 5. Occupational crowding Higher skilled workers taking lower skilled jobs, thus displacing lower skilled workers altogether

10. Does the Global Economic Slowdown Matter? Percent of 2011 Revenue Outside U.S. YUM Brands 70% Wal-Mart 26% IBM 64% Boeing 41% Intel 84% General Electric 54% Bank of America 20% Ford 51% Dow Chemical 67% Microsoft 46% Apple Inc. 61% JNJ 56% Caterpillar 64% Dell 48% ExxonMobil 45% McDonalds 66% Amazon 45% General Motors 46% Nike 50% Hewlett Packard 65%

12. Texas Labor Market: 1. Who we are? 2. Where do we live? 3. What’s the market like? 4. Where is the growth? 5. Where are we going? 6. What is the role of education?

13. Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010 13 Source: Texas State Data Center 79 counties lost population over the decade

14. Texas becomes more Hispanic

15. Tough Competition: Generational Employment in Texas 2000 - 2010

16. How many Millenials does it take to screw in a light bulb? 1. One to the instructions 2. One to post the instructions on the wall of their page 3. One to post the video of their work showing collaboration One Baby Boomer to tell them what a terrific, wonderful, spectacular job they did with the light bulb

17. Texas Labor Market Review Newsletter

18. Texas MSA April 2013 Urates (actual) MSA 2013 MSA 2013 Midland3.0 Houston-Sugar Land5.9 Odessa3.7 D/FW-Arlington CSA6.0 Amarillo4.4 Texas6.1 Abilene4.8 Tyler6.2 Lubbock4.8 Laredo6.6 College Station-Bryan5.0 Sherman-Denison6.7 San Angelo5.0 Texarkana6.7 Victoria5.1 Killeen-Temple6.9 Austin-Round Rock5.1 United States7.1 Longview5.4 El Paso8.7 Corpus Christi5.7 Beaumont-Pt Arthur9.8 Wichita Falls5.7 Brville-Harlingen9.9 Waco5.8 McAllen-Edinburg10.5 San Antonio5.9

19. Texas Industry Growth April 2012-13 YOY (SA) NAICS IndustryApril 2013 April 2012ABS CHGPER CHG Total Nonagricultural11,146,00010,819,900326,1003.0% Goods Producing1,771,4001,709,90061,5003.6% Service Providing9,374,6009,110,000264,6002.9% Prof. & Business Services1,458,7001,396,70062,0004.4% Trade, Trans. & Utilities2,224,5002,166,10058,4002.7% Leisure & Hospitality1,130,0001,073,40056,6005.3% Construction622,000580,50041,5007.1% Educ. & Health Services1,495,3001,454,00041,3002.8% Government1,808,6001,789,30019,3001.1% Mining and Logging283,800267,00016,8006.3% Financial Activities669,300655,90013,4002.0% Other Services389,400377,60011,8003.1% Manufacturing865,600862,4003,2000.4% Information198,800197,0001,8000.9%

21. Job Growth 50 State Comparison States with Job GainsFeb 2012Feb 2013ANN CHGPER CHG Texas10,759.311,119.1359,8003.3% California14,276.614,570.4293,8002.1% Florida7,351.67,479.7128,1001.7% New York8,776.88,864.988,1001.0% North Carolina3,968.44,049.781,3002.0% Georgia3,930.94,000.769,8001.8% Washington2,845.52,913.568,0002.4% Illinois5,725.65,789.964,3001.1% Colorado2,290.12,352.962,8002.7% Minnesota2,717.42,779.962,5002.3% Tennessee2,700.22,758.658,4002.2% Massachusetts3,260.93,318.557,6001.8% New Jersey3,886.43,942.956,5001.5% Total All States (thou)133,103135,2402,136,5001.6%

22. Texas Industry Employment Change 2010-12 IndustryQTR4/2012Abs CHGAWW Food Services and Drinking Places876,695 73,669$325 Administrative and Support Services689,234 62,889$761 Professional and Technical Services638,485 58,902$1,811 Support Activities for Mining168,032 46,542$1,772 Ambulatory Health Care Services642,109 42,635$1,013 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods311,347 27,763$1,538 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing135,383 20,300$1,223 Truck Transportation128,911 18,858$984 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction162,045 18,031$1,216 Machinery Manufacturing104,560 16,488$1,727 Oil and Gas Extraction99,445 16,163$3,693 Credit Intermediation & Related Activity255,977 15,448$1,202 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores138,566 14,729$347 Hospitals419,405 14,011$1,083 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers156,447 13,646$1,034

23. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services in Texas 2010-2012 NAICSIndustry20102012ABS CHG 541Professional and Technical Services568,028620,44958,902 5415Computer Systems Design Services100,219121,30921,090 5416Management & Tech Consulting Svc83,96298,59914,637 5413Architectural & Engineering Services137,024146,7119,687 5412Accounting & Bookkeeping Services65,54669,9754,429 5411Legal Services78,15180,2522,101 5419Other Professional & Tech Services47,73849,1021,364 5414Specialized Design Services7,0957,762667 5418Advertising & Public Relations Srvcs24,00023,650-350 5417Scientific Research & Develop Srvcs24,29023,090-1,200

24. Estimated Occupational Staffing Pattern for Professional & Technical Services Occupation%Education Preferred Accountants and Auditors5.2Bachelor's degree Office Clerks, General3.9Short-term OJT Lawyers3.5First professional Secretaries, Ex. Legal/Medical3.3Moderate OJT Computer Software Engineers, Apps2.8Bachelor's degree Computer Systems Analysts2.8Bachelor's degree Bookkeeping, Accounting & Audit Clerks2.8Moderate OJT Computer Support Specialists2.5Associate degree Civil Engineers2.4Bachelor's degree Paralegals and Legal Assistants2.4Associate degree Management Analysts2.3Bachelor's plus exp Computer Software Engineers, Systems2.1Bachelor's degree Executive Secretaries & Admin Assists2.1Related work experience Legal Secretaries2.1Associate degree Computer Programmers2.0Bachelor's degree

25. Where the Texas Job Postings Are Now Metro AreaPostingsMetro AreaPostings Dallas-Fort Worth235,229 Tyler7,437 Houston-Sugar Land189,721 Amarillo6,941 Austin-Round Rock80,775 College Station-Bryan6,671 San Antonio59,147 Odessa6,434 El Paso14,775 Beaumont-Pt. Arthur6,363 Corpus Christi13,814 Midland4,950 McAllen-Edinburg9,593 Brownsville-Harlingen4,617 Lubbock9,539 Abilene4,416 Killeen-Temple8,200 Longview4,203 Waco7,759 Laredo3,869 Source: Wanted Analytics for 90 day period from May 17, 2013NOTE: 74% of all job postings in Big 4 metro areas

26. Help Wanted Job Listings for Texas May 2013 Job Type Postings Preferred training/education 1. Registered Nurse  33,105 Associate’s degree 2. Truck Driver, tractor trailer  23,583 Short term OJT 3. Retail Salesperson  16,703 Short term OJT 4. Manager of Retail Workers  15,337 Related Work Experience 5. Customer Service Rep  14,719 Moderate OJT 6. Computer Systems Analyst  13,013 Bachelor’s degree 7. Manager of Food Prep Workers  12,980 Related Work Experience 8. Network Administrator  12,014 Bachelor’s degree 9. Manager, Office Workers  11,600 Related Work Experience 10. Application Developer  11,553 Bachelor’s degree 11. Computer Support Specialist  11,290 Associate’s degree 12. Web Developer 11,124 Associate’s degree 13. Non-tech Sales Rep, WH & Man 10,991 Related Work Experience 14. Maintenance / Repair Worker  10,295 Moderate OJT Source: Wanted Analytics for 90 day period from May 17, 2013 NOTE: Arrows indicate occupation with greater or less than 5% change in last year

27. Help Wanted Job Listings for San Antonio MSA Job Type Openings Preferred training/education 1. Registered Nurse  2,571 Associate’s degree 2. Truck Driver (heavy/tractor trailer)  1,777 Short On The Job training 3. Retail Salesperson  1,377 Short On The Job training 4. Customer Service Rep  1,366 Moderate On Job Training 5. Manager of Retail Workers  1,136 Related Work Experience 6. Manager of Food Prep Workers1,061 Related Work Experience 7. Manager of Office/Admin Staff  952 Related Work Experience 8. Network/Computer Systems Admin  918 Bachelor’s degree 9. Medical/ Health Services Manager  893 Bachelor’s degree 10. Computer User Support Specialist  862 Associate’s degree 11. Maintenance / Repair Worker  821 Moderate On Job Training 12. Maid / Housekeeper  739 Short Term On Job Training Source: Wanted Analytics for 90 day period from June 17, 2012

28. Help Wanted Job Listings for Austin MSA (last 90 days) OccupationApr ‘13Apr ‘12Usual Education 1. Software Developers, Applications3,0132,087 Bachelor’s 2. Registered Nurses2,8731,761 Assoc/Bachelors 3. Web Developers2,0181,955 Assoc/Bachelors 4. Network Systems Administrators1,7891,814 Bachelor’s 5. Retail Salespersons1,6671,262 Short OJT 6. Customer Service Representatives1,6171,422 Moderate OJT 7. Computer Systems Analysts1,4451,238 Bachelor’s 8. Computer User Support Specialists1,4241,232 Associate’s 9. Supervisors, Retail Sales1,370985 Work experience 10. Supervisors, Food Prep1,1681,126 Work experience 11. Marketing Managers1,1481,105 Bachelor’s plus WE 12. Supervisors, Admin/Office Support1,119906 Work experience 13. Truck Drivers, Heavy1,054831 Short OJT w/CDL 14. IT Project Managers993808 Associate’s 15. Software QA Engineers/Testers963743 Bachelor’s

30. Achieve Texas Cluster Employment (sorted by wages) Cluster NamePCT 2010-20Wage 2011AA Openings STEM19.1%$90,36110,015 Information Technology22.3%$80,94211,405 Business & Management16.3%$56,79652,955 Health Science30.8%$55,85342,305 Government15.8%$53,2545,885 Finance17.7%$53,03612,995 Law & Public Safety21.7%$50,70315,895 Arts, A/V & Communications13.4%$48,1994,955 Education and Training32.9%$47,38743,475 Architecture and Construction18.4%$40,16436,430 Agriculture & Natural Resources8.4%$39,77427,480 Marketing, Sales and Service17.8%$39,23657,355 Manufacturing15.6%$38,65325,855 Transportation & Logistics16.5%$34,72536,270 Human Services25.6%$29,05728,710 Hospitality and Tourism22.9%$21,12787,565

31. Texas Most Annual Average Job Openings 2010-20 31 Annual Average Wage 2011 $24,165 $19,155 $19,069 $18,188 $51,847 $28,671 $30,387 $67,581 $19,052 $24,316

32. Projected Fastest Growing Occupations in Texas 2010-20 Occupational Title Per CHG 2010-20 Annual Openings Formal Education Required Diagnostic Medical Sonographers52.0%240Associate's Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas51.0%515HS or GED Home Health Aides50.4%5,220Less than HS Personal Care Aides49.4%7,675Less than HS Service Unit Operators, Oil & Gas48.1%1,235HS or GED Special Education Teachers, MS45.1%460Bachelor's degree Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas44.4%470HS or GED Roustabouts, Oil and Gas43.7%1,155Less than HS Medical Secretaries43.2%3,380HS or GED Helpers--Extraction Workers42.6%455HS or GED Medical Scientists42.3%240PhD/prof. degree Interpreters and Translators42.2%360Bachelor's degree Middle School Teachers, Ex. CTE41.1%5,075Bachelor's degree Elementary School Teachers40.8%10,430Bachelor's degree Market Research Analysts40.5%1,200Bachelor's degree Cardiovascular Technicians40.5%180Associate's Industrial Machinery Mechanics40.2%1,840HS or GED Physical Therapist Assistants40.0%255Associate's

33. What is IT? Is this IT?

34. What is the IT labor market? Can it be defined as an industry? Can it be defined by occupation? Can it be defined by college major? Is IT a ubiquitous operation or a cross- domain function? Should it be defined by skill set?

35. Disruptive TechnologyWhat it is, why do I care? Advanced Oil & Gas Exploration Hydraulic fracking, creates $4 trillion in new oil & gas Renewable Energy Wind & solar, new energy sources & declining prices Advanced Materials Nano particles 3-D Printing Make plastic products with ink-jet printing techniques Energy Storage Batteries & capacitors Next Generation Genomics DNA sequencing, gene mapping Autonomous Cars Robot cars, sensors in roads Cloud Technology Server farms serving 2.7 billion Internet users Internet of Things Web linking devices, HIT Automation of Knowledge Work Work activity displacement, all occupations Mobile Internet Smart phone interconnections, 24/7 workers Source: McKinsey Global Institute

36. The Argument for Skills over Occupational Titles: Job Titles That Didn’t Exist Just 5 Years Ago Job Title 1. Videogame Tester11. Cyber Security Specialist 2. Market Researcher Data Miner12. Product Blogger 3. Bioinformatics Specialist13. Social Media Manager 4. Healthcare Applications Analyst14. Cyborg Anthropologist 5. Big Data Integration Engineer15. Usability Engineer 6. Chief Listening Officer16. Chief Sustainability Officer 7. Cloud Computing Operations Manager17. User Experience Designer 8. E-commerce specialist18. Mobile App Developer 9. Search Engine Optimization Manager19. Online Reputation Manager 10. Behavioral Analytics Specialist20. Programmer IV Source: O*NET & Monster.com

38. Returns to Education & Educational Requirements

39. Labor Market Reality

40. More education, better labor market outcomes

41. Reality is Relative 2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money Survey Poll of Americans ages 13-18 Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive U.S. teenagers were asked: 1.What is your average expected starting salary? 2.What will be your salary once established in a career?

42. Reality is Relative 2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money Survey Poll of Americans ages 13-18 Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive For real fun, check out: http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/realitycheck/http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/realitycheck/ Starting your career: Average answer: $73,000 a year Boys answered: $79,700 a year Girls answered: $66,200 a year

43. Reality is Relative 2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money Survey Poll of Americans ages 13-18 Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive For real fun, check out: http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/realitycheck/http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/realitycheck/ Established in your career: Average answer: $150,000 a year Boys answered: $162,300 a year Girls answered: $126,500 a year

44. Welcome to Reality Check 2011! http://www.texasrealitycheck.com

45. Texas Reality Check for iPhone…. for free! Now at the Apple App Store

46. www.TexasCARESOnline.com

47. Career Interests of Texas students 2012 1. Sports Athlete (#4) 14. Architect (#11) 2. Doctor (#6) 15. Police Officer (#7) 3. Multi-Media Artist (new) 16. Psychologist (#15) 4. Truck Driver (new) 17. Welder (new) 5. Forensic Science Tech (#10) 18. Pediatrician (#18) 6. Veterinarian (#5) 19. Artist (#30) 7. Lawyer (#2) 20. Physical Therapist (#16) 8. Registered Nurse (#3) 21. Hairdresser/Cosmetologist (#12) 9. Actor (#9) 22. CEO (#35) 10. Musician/Singer (#14) 23. Fashion Designer (#24) 11. Graphic Designer (new) 24. Zoologist (#19) 12. Teacher (K-12) (#1) 25. Computer Programmer (#20) 13. Auto Mechanic (#13) *From 8,739 Texas students contacting LMCI Hotline in 2012 *(Number) represents position of career in 2007

48. Highest Earning College Programs 2011 Detail View Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) (50+)GradsEarnings Petroleum Engineering315$84,298 Chemical Engineering402$67,303 Ocean Engineering63$61,213 Mechanical Engineering1,285$57,200 Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration5,590$56,921 Mechanical Engineering Technicians116$54,165 Industrial Engineering266$52,468 Electrical, Electronics & Telecomm Engineering991$51,796 Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians239$51,645 Sales, Merchandising & Marketing Operations253$51,342 Electrical Engineering Technologies/Technicians165$50,596 Computer Engineering227$48,017 Construction Engineering Technologies344$47,381 Allied Health Diagnostic & Treatment Professions337$47,330 Civil Engineering734$47,256

49. Lowest Earning College Programs 2011 Detail View Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX)GradsEarnings Pastoral Counseling and Specialized Ministries61$13,383 Health/Medical Preparatory Programs107$16,949 Drama/Theatre Arts and Stagecraft540$18,555 Visual and Performing Arts, General108$18,854 Religious Education151$19,071 Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions207$19,738 Film/Video and Photographic Arts131$19,817 Anthropology488$20,492 Dance131$20,548 Zoology/Animal Biology81$20,914 Fine and Studio Arts1,433$21,024 Microbiological Sciences and Immunology139$21,398 Foods, Nutrition, and Related Services488$21,722 Ecology, Evolution & Population Biology109$21,788 Psychology, General5,345$21,800

50. Math = Money The more math you take the more money you can make.

51. Trends in U.S. Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded

52. Highest Earning Associate’s Degree Programs 2011 Associate’s Degree Graduate Major (TX)GradsEarnings Fire Protection177$61,280 Nuclear and Industrial Radiologic Technicians23$57,564 Physical Science Technologies/Technicians474$52,724 Quality Control and Safety Technicians152$50,872 Registered Nursing & Nursing Administration5,822$49,160 Electrical and Power Transmission Installers32$48,692 Mining and Petroleum Technologies/Technicians32$45,644 Electromechanical and Instrumentation Techs541$44,968 Industrial Equipment Maintenance Technologies19$44,968 Electrical/Electronics Maintenance Technology71$43,044 Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians119$41,700 Precision Metal Working176$41,676 Geography and Cartography35$37,876 Mechanical Engineering Technicians26$37,148 Dental Support Services and Allied Professions319$37,144

53. Structural Mismatch: 2011 GraduatesGradsEarnings Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other9,810$30,112 Business Admin, Management & Operations6,911$41,216 Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration5,590$56,920 Psychology, General5,345$21,800 Biology, General4,496$21,812 Health and Physical Education/Fitness3,719$23,068 Accounting and Related Services3,272$35,356 Finance and Financial Management Services2,915$37,868 Criminal Justice and Corrections2,864$25,624 No CIP Code submitted (Private Colleges)2,778$29,972 Marketing2,677$32,080 Liberal Arts and Sciences, Humanities2,615$33,924 English Language and Literature, General2,309$23,048 History2,278$23,568 Political Science and Government2,065$25,268

54. Texas Educational Equilibrium 2011 TX 2011 University degree grads by award: 107,545 Bachelor’s 52,118 Graduate degrees 159,663 Total Grads Ann AVG openings for jobs requiring Bachelor’s degree or higher: 100,375 Openings in Teaching/Education: 43,260 Openings requiring Grad degree: 18,735 TX 2011 Associate’s degree graduates: 58,609 Total grads Less 23,797 General Studies 34,812 Technical grads Ann AVG openings for jobs requiring a Associate’s or Postsecondary Award: 46,125 Openings for Registered Nurse: 9,460

55. Regional employers say they want… 1.Good communications skills: Can you…..  Explain what you’re doing (to co-worker or customer)?  Explain what you need (from a co-worker or customer)?  Ability to listen to instructions? 2. Technical knowledge (degrees needed for half of all job openings) 4.Can you work with people who are of a different age, race, gender and education level than you? 5.Can-do attitude / pleasant attitude (workers who are “engaged” in their work) 6.Critical thinking skills (if given a sequence of events, can you determine what will probably happen next)

56. Will Workplace Skills SkillsDistill

57. Will Workplace Skills Skills Strong academics High School diploma Post secondary schooling Appropriate technical skills Distill

58. “We need workers who have a minimum of two years of college. They do not have to have a degree. Two years of college now is like how we needed workers to have at least a high school diploma in the past. It’s because computers are involved in every job today so technical skills and the ability to learn technical skills is more important. It’s simply because of productivity. To get the productivity a company needs to make a profit, the company needs workers who can learn those technical skills.” Red McCombs, San Antonio businessman

59. Will Workplace Basic Skills Communication skills Getting along with others Critical thinking SkillsDistill

60. “There’s not one specific thing or skill people have to have to work for us. But I can tell you why we fire people: soft skills. We hire for hard skills. We fire for soft skills. The ability to interact and communicate with others or behave ethically and take responsibility for things tends to be where people tend to break down.” Rick Stephens, senior vice president of HR, The Boeing Corporation

61. Will Workplace Skills Skills Distill A new 401(K) world Informal learning Continuing education The Climbing Wall

62. The Climbing Wall concept of Career Development: Everyone is trying to get to the top, but finds themselves at a different place, moving at a different pace and with a unique support system

63. Will Willing to take a job: At lower level, lesser wage In a different locale Show flexibility & initiative Workplace Skills SkillsDistill

64. Maybe Midland wasn’t your first choice, but….. First Year Post-graduate earnings Masters in Accounting

65. Will Willing to take a job: At lower level, lesser wage In a different locale Show flexibility & initiative Workplace Skills Workplace Basics! Communication skills Getting along with others Critical thinking Skills Strong academics High School diploma Post secondary schooling Appropriate technical skills Distill On the Job Training Informal learning Continuing education Career Lattice

66. There is much more story to tell, but this version is over Thank you! richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us