1. Session 18 The Future AN Other

2. Session 18 The Future How market pressure (bottom-up) and GATS/WTO agreements (top-down) will influence the postal sector: Threats and Opportunities Market and Regulatory Impact WTO – Impact on Regulation Session Objectives & Topics

3. Threats and Opportunities

4. Session 18 The Future Competitors local couriers, DHL, FedEx TNT, UPS banks, Moneygram, Western Union local government, schools, health services shops, kiosks, news agents Internet service providers, cyber cafés schools, community centers, religious centers transportation companies, freight forwarders internal distribution Products parcels, packages, express mail savings, payments, loans, money orders, lottery licenses, taxation, pensions, benefits, information phones, phone cards, newspapers, stationary, etc. hybrid mail, Internet, SMS, e-certification access to people warehousing, picking, packaging, distribution letters, registered, philatelic Service Parcels/Express Financial Government Retail Electronic Rural access Logistics Mail Television, media, newspapers Direct marketing, document management, door to door Value-added Mail

5. Market and Regulatory Impact

6. Session 18 The Future Market Trends DevelopmentImpact on Regulator Improved Service Demand Investment, better management Improved services Better networks Re –define service standards More difficult to monitor Higher risk of abuse Risk to USO Liberalisation Diversification More competitors More demanding consumers Pressure on USO Maintaining USO Contracts between competitors Balancing market Cross sector issues Cooperation essential Foreign Investment Lack of resource Regional demands Direct mail Increased email – e-business Economies of scale and scope Increased retail products Network synergies (logistics) More demanding consumers Increased volumes International trade

7. Session 18 The Future Diversification in Practice Product Express Mail Retail Logistics Financial Services e-business TOTAL Consultancy etc Deutsche Post 20 4 1 7 1 34 1 TPG 13 18 16 1 49 1 La Poste France 9 7 2 2 2 27 5 Posten Sweden 5 1 2 9 1 Canada Post 1 2 6 3

8. WTO: Impact on Regulation

9. Session 18 The Future World Trade Organisation – promotes free trade General Agreement on Trade in Services –Multilateral rules covering international trade –Country makes commitment to provide access to their markets –Covers all internationally traded services except: Services provided in the exercise of Government authority Air transport WTO Agreements

10. Session 18 The Future GATS and Postal Services Dispute about the extent to which postal services are covered by GATS Are universal service obligations outside GATS? EU position is that all postal services are covered by GATS

11. Session 18 The Future Implications Postal services could be negotiated as part of a wider package Competition and forced liberalisation Terminal dues agreements? Countries need to gear up to change now Postal operators and policy makers must ensure their interests are accounted for

12. Session 18 The Future GATS – Implications for the Regulator Needs to carefully monitor negotiations Advice to Government on desirable limitations Continued improvement in procedures and management processes to withstand challenges to decisions on the basis of unfair treatment

13. Session 18 The Future Conclusion Wider changes will create opportunities for postal services –Overall economic development –Increased employment –Increased direct mail –Increased e-business –More foreign investment and innovation

14. Session 18 The Future Group Exercise What do you think are the long term implications for the postal service? What impact will that have on –Universal service? –Competition? –Post Offices? –Postal Regulators?