1. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Cape Cod: 2030 Photo: Henrik Dreisler Wii Hacks for Participatory Planning Interactive Climate Change Scenario Planning using CommunityViz and other Low Cost Tools

2. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Jason Lally Director of the Decision Lab jason@placematters.org Amy Anderson Lead Planning Consultant amy@placeways.com

3. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Volpe Center

4. *Figures are for energy consumption only; they do not reflect life-cycle emissions associated with resource use, emissions from Canal Plant, emissions attributable to combustion of MSW; emissions from land use; etc. Energy Use (KTOE) Population Cape & Islands Congo Cape & Islands Congo Chris Powicki, Water Energy & Ecology Information Services

5. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning (modified after Rahmstorf, 2007; AR4 data from Bindoff, 2007) IPCC AR4 A1B envelope (modified after Rahmstorf, 2007; AR4 data from Bindoff, 2007) Rob Thieler, USGS at Woods Hole

6. Bluff erosion Overwash Island Breaching Threshold Crossing Urban Inundation R. Carlson Wetland Loss Water Quality Reduction Ecosystem Change Infrastructure Failure Listed Species Impacts Rob Thieler, USGS at Woods Hole

7. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Tom Cambareri, Cape Cod Commission

8. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning 8.5 pounds nitrogen* 85%** *Average 3-bed home discharge of nitrogen into groundwater per year **Percent of 156,000 homes presently on septic Tom Cambareri, Cape Cod Commission

9. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Cape Cod Pilot Project Phases Beginning Phase Site selection Development of scope of work Formation of planning group and technical committee Data collection Second Phase Expert elicitation on climate change impacts Creation of GHG reduction strategies Consultation RFP; selection of consultant

10. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Cape Cod Pilot Project Phases Workshops Identification and invitation of stakeholders Development of initial and preferred scenarios Follow-up analysis and modeling End Phase Implementation/action plans Guidebook for future implementation

11. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Cape Cod: 2030 Photo: Henrik Dreisler Scenarios for Land Use and Transportation

12. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning About scenario planning Five scenarios

13. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Scenario Planning The New Yorker Magazine/Zeigler 2004 Decision Makers Uncertain Choices Uncertain Outcomes Uncertain Information

14. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Cape Cod 2010  2030 2010 ? ? Choices, Actions Indicators A+BBC- BB-AA- C+B+CA B-A+DC- AB-B+B 2030 Scenarios

15. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning 1.It’s a computer. Computers know everything. How do we know what will happen? ? ? Choices, Actions 2. Enough information and good information. 3. We may be a little off. But that’s okay.

16. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Working with scenarios What do we like, or not? What’s most important? What if we make adjustments? Would it matter if our models changed? Refined Choice

17. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Is and Isn’t Education and insights Exploring a wide range of options Understanding trade-offs Directional decisions Is Good For Forecasting or prediction Engineering-level precision Isn’t Meant For

18. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Scenario Planning Tool ® A project of Promoting informed, collaborative decision-making since 2001. In partnership with

19. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning About scenario planning Five scenarios

20. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Cape Cod 2010  2030 ? ? Transportation Enhanced Standard Transportation 2030 Pre-run Scenarios Development Dispersed Targeted Trend Enhanced Standard

21. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Sketching Initial Scenarios Purposely extreme Highlight key variables – Development patterns – Transportation

22. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Growth assumptions for all scenarios 20 year horizon: Year 2030 + 28,000 households – Average of 2.25 persons per household – Year-round population: 221,000  284,000 – Summer (peak) population: 480,000  543,000 – All growth is in year-round population + 16,500 jobs – Jobs: 97,000  113,500

23. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Transportation Choices Standard Today plus… Train to Boston 1 new bus route Other planned improvements Enhanced Standard plus… More bus stops Higher frequency Pedestrian and bicycle improvements in dense areas

24. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Cape Cod: 2030 Photo: Henrik Dreisler Workshop Exercises & Techniques

25. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

26. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

27. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Choose your top two issues: 1.Water quality and supply 2.Reduce traffic and vehicle miles traveled 3.Access to services and employment 4.Avoid development in hazard areas 5.Reduce the Cape’s greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution 6.Avoid development in critical habitat or conservation areas 7.Protect the integrity of historic preservation districts 8.Increase access to transit and nonmotorized modes

28. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Choose your top two issues:

29. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

30. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

31. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

32. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Cape Cod: 2030 Photo: Henrik Dreisler Lessons Learned

33. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Lessons Learned Things to Improve on More time is better Make sure reliable transportation data on the current and trend exist Periodic status checks are helpful 2 facilitators per table – 1 technical – 1 discussion leader Test EVERYTHING ahead of time

34. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Lessons Learned Reaffirmed Beliefs Having the live data is invaluable to the process The simpler the interaction, the better Less resolution can be a good thing for regional level Don’t expect to walk away with “the answer” in 1 day People want to get involved

35. Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Jason Lally Director of the Decision Lab jason@placematters.org Tw: @theplacematters Tw: @synchronouscity Fb: http://fb.me/placematters Bl: http://blog.placematters.org Amy Anderson Lead Planning Consultant amy@placeways.com W: http://placeways.com W: http://communityviz.com