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1 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 The Evolution of Natural G as and Power Markets May 31 st 2005 CERT –The Energy Roundtable.

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Presentation on theme: "1 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 The Evolution of Natural G as and Power Markets May 31 st 2005 CERT –The Energy Roundtable."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 The Evolution of Natural G as and Power Markets May 31 st 2005 CERT –The Energy Roundtable

2 2 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 Disclaimer Forward-looking Statements Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements and are not historical facts but are based on certain assumptions and reflect current expectations regarding future results or events. Those statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to differ materially.

3 3 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 Introduction to NGX Provides electronic trading and clearing services to North American energy market participants Owned by the TSX group since March 2004 Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada with about 30 employees Began trading and clearing operations in Feb. 1994 by lisitng AECO gas contracts Listed Alberta based power swaps in 2003 Over 125 trading customers based in Canada and the U.S. Trading volumes now exceed 700,000 TJ (663 Bcf or 195 TWh) per month with an underlying value of $C 4.5 billion Introduction

4 4 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 Introduction to TSX Group TSX Group is a cornerstone of the Canadian financial system and is at the centre of Canada’s equity capital market TSX Group owns and operates Canada’s two national stock exchanges, the Toronto Stock Exchange, serving the senior equity market, and TSX Venture Exchange, serving the public venture equity market From its preeminent domestic base, TSX Group’s reach continues to extend internationally, through TSX Markets and TSX Datalinx which provide the trading and data to the global financial community who access Canada’s equity capital market Introduction

5 5 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 History of TSX Group 1861 – Forerunner to Toronto Stock Exchange launched 1977 – TSE Launches the world’s first Computer Assisted Trading System (CATS) 1996 - Became the first exchange in North America to introduce decimal trading 1997 – Became the largest stock exchange in North America to close it’s trading floor and choose a floorless electronic trading environment 1999 – Through realignment, became the sole exchange for trading senior equities in Canada 2000 – Demutalized into a “for-profit” exchange 2001 – Acquired Canadian Venture Exchange 2004 – Acquired NGX Introduction

6 6 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 Canada’s oil and gas industry in North America -Canada is the world’s third largest natural gas producer -Canada is the world’s 9 th largest crude oil producer Industry Overview -500,000 jobs -C$35 billion capital investment -C$20 billion in payments to federal and provincial governments. -#1 private sector investor in Canada 2004 Canadian Natural Gas Canadian Petroleum Ranking of importers to U.S. #1 Share of U.S. consumption 15%10% Share of U.S. imports 85%16% Canada is the largest supplier of energy to the United States Overview Source: CAPP

7 7 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 Gas Markets

8 8 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 US & Canadian Natural Gas Demand 1995200020052010201520202025 Year 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Trillion Cubic Feet Other US Residential/Commercial US Cogeneration US Industrial US Power Canada Gas Markets Demand growth is based on increased gas-fired generation

9 9 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 WCSB: 16.7 ROCKIES: 4.4 ANADARKO: 7.6 CALIFORNIA: 0.8 SAN JUAN: 4.0 PERMIAN: 4.0 GULF (OFFSHORE): 13.8 GULF (ONSHORE): 14.8 APPALACHIANS: 1.5 MIDWEST: 0.8 Scotian Shelf: 0.5 Total Production = 72.4 Bcf / d MEXICO: 3.5 Major North American producing supply basins Gas Markets Source: NEB

10 10 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 North American Natural Gas Demand by Sector, 2002 Residential/Commercial Industrial Power Other Billion Cubic Feet/Year 1000 500 0 Pacific Mountain West South Central Mexico (2001 Data) West North Central East South Central South Atlantic Mid-Atlantic New England Maritimes Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Alaska Gas Markets Gas is primarily used for space heating in most regions

11 11 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 NORTHWEST PIPELINES NOVA TRANSCANADA ALLIANCE PIPELINETRANSCANADA PIPELINE NORTHERN BORDER NGPL NORTHERN NATURAL TRANSCO COLUMBIA GULF TRANSMISSION TENNESSEE GAS PIPELINE GREAT LAKES EL PASO PG&E GTN TRANSWESTERN Major North American gas pipelines move gas to the markets Gas Markets

12 12 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 US & Canadian Gas Supply Forecast 1995200020052010201520202025 Year 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Trillion Cubic Feet LNG Alaska McKenzie Delta Non-Arctic Canada Rockies Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Gulf of Mexico Shelf Other Lower 48° Gas Markets LNG is forecast to make-up more of the supply

13 13 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 North American gas markets are now operating efficiently Wholesale natural markets have been deregulated since the mid 80’s in Canada and the U.S. Since the adoption of NAFTA, the markets operate in close synchronization The interstate pipelines are common carriers, transport and merchant functions are fully segregated Transport tariffs are regulated by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in the U.S. and National Energy Board (NEB) in Canada Storage operations not associated with the pipelines are either state regulated or unregulated Retail markets subject to state or provincial regulation EIA oversees publication of storage data in the U.S. FERC oversees price indexes Gas Markets

14 14 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 Evolution of North American energy exchanges Mid to late 80s - Deregulation of wholesale gas markets & implementation of FERC Order 436 1990 – NYMEX lists natural gas futures contracts, delivery at Henry Hub 1994 – NGX lists AECO physical spot and forward contracts 1999 – Enron online launches and then ceases to exist in 2001 1999 - ICE launches member owned exchange 2000 – NYMEX five power contracts, no liquidity 2001 - ICE acquires IPE in London 2002 - NYMEX provides OTC clearing services 2003 - NYMEX re-launches PJM power futures Energy Markets Gas market participants have access to liquid markets with a wide variety of hedging instruments

15 15 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 Power Markets FERC is encouraging the development of RTO’s and ISO’s

16 16 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 Impact of growing gas demand –Gas-fired power plants have reduced the summer demand valley, some shoulder seasonality exists –Gas is a premium fuel from an environmental perspective –Overhanging gas surplus is blown down, gas is now a “just in time” commodity –Gas prices are at a premium hence gas-fired power plants represent high cost supply and used for peaking only in many areas –Continued decline of conventional supplies will drive frontier, non-conventional and LNG development –LNG growth in market share could drive convergence with global markets Energy Markets

17 17 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 Energy Markets Source: FERC

18 18 CERT Presentation –May 31-05 v7 Questions and Contact Information Peter Krenkel – President 403.974.1705 peter.krenkel@ngx.com Natural Gas Exchange Inc. Suite 2330, 140 4th Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta Canada T2P 3N3 Phone403.974.1700 Fax403.974.1719


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