1. Buapun Promphakping buapun@kku.ac.th
Poverty Analysis
Buapun Promphakping

2. Different sorts of poverty
Extreme poverty: an inability to meet basic needs
Lack of opportunity: chances and choices to participate in social, economic, political and civil live are seriously limited.
Vulnerability: individual, family and community are vulnerable to circumstances, change in politics, economics, wars, natural calamity, etc.

3. Poverty Analysis? Approaches and methodologies to understand the poor.
Ways to understand causes of poverty.
Ways to reduce poverty.

4. Questions? What cause poverty? What are their consequences?
What are interactions of various sets of causes, especially social process and power that perpetuate poverty?
What are ways and means to escape from poverty trap?
What are specific types of the poor, what cause them to be poor, how they deal with their poverty?
How to prioritize measurements and interventions to eradicate poverty?

5. Approach Country Profile PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Process
Poverty and Social Impact Analysis
Participatory Poverty Assessment

6. Poverty Country Profile

7. Country Profile
An analytical synthesis of poverty related information to answer the questions:
Who are the poor?
Where do they live?
What are the main characteristics?
Why they are poor?

8. How to conduct country profile
Step 1: defining poverty
Household income/consumption, i.e. poverty line and their associate indices.
Human capabilities: adult literacy, child malnutrition, primary enrollment rate, etc.
Access to public services
Employment and assets
Natural resources

9. How to conduct country profile
Step 2: Analyze available information to answer four questions:
Who are the poor?
Where do they live?
What are the characteristics of their poverty?
Why they are poor?

10. Existing data sources National census (household survey)
Basic Needs Survey
Village Profile Survey
Report of Ministries/ Department

11. Health Index
Life expectancy
Rate of child malnutrition
Rate of HIVs
Rate of population consuming
alcohol and tobacco

12. How to conduct country profile (cont.)
Step 3: Determining poverty tends
Long term scenario
Short term scenario
Step 4: Consider national policy framework
National development strategy
Poverty reduction strategy
Government policies
Public expenditure program.

13. Poverty Reduction Strategy Process
PRSP

14. What is Poverty Reduction Process (PRSP)
Main tool used for policy & national budget priorities and economic planning
Basis for donor coordination – aid resources aligned to PRSP priorities.

15. What is Poverty Reduction Process (PRSP)
Designed to be consultative process involving all country’s major sectors and stakeholders
Guides Central Government budgetary allocations to sectors such as energy, health, education and agriculture

16. Impact of PRSP
Consensus on priority activities and institutional approach
Education – Primary education
Health – Primary health care, HIV

17. Health, education and water analysts able to demonstrate:
Investment in health, education and water = poverty reduction

18. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis
PSIA

19. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA)
PSIA is the analysis of intended and unintended consequences of actual or potential policy interventions on the well-being of different social groups, with a particular focus on the poor and vulnerable
PSIA focuses on
The distributional impacts on different stakeholders,
income and non–income dimensions
The positive and negative impacts of the policy agenda
Let me explain where we come from,
If you recall the definition , the focus and the goal of PSIA approach you see that there is a strong emphasis on understanding the impacts of reforms on different social groups, on non-income dimensions and building constituencies for change
These elements of the approach do are not easily captures by econometrics and require a strong process orientation as well as the integration of a second type of analysis which we refer to as social, political and institutional analysis.

20. Goals
Understand better the likely impacts of reforms on different groups (disaggregated along ethic, gender, age, spatial and livelihood lines)
Improving quality: Promoting pro-poor policy agendas
Facilitating the process: Building a broad constituency for change

21. PSIA: Main Elements - Stakeholder Analysis - Policy dialogue process
4 Main Analytical Elements of a PSIA: Activities:
- Stakeholder Analysis Policy dialogue process
Institutional Analysis Monitoring during
Impact Analysis implementation
Risk Analysis
Social Analysis  brings different research focus,  generates different information,  generated via different set of tools and methods

22. Selection of policy agenda for PSIA
PSIA: A policy process
Selection of policy agenda for PSIA
Analysis
Policy Dialog
Monitoring
Anis
Recommendation
Policy design

23. What is the value added of social analysis in PSIA?
Explains how social identity and social relations may affect policy outcomes and impacts
Analysis of informal rules and behaviors helps to understand implementation issues and constraints
Focus on Analysis of interests and influence of different stakeholders helps to understand effects of political economy
Helps to identify socio-political and institutional risks
Emphasis on PSIA process and dialogue helps to identify bottlenecks and preconditions for ownership of reforms
Examples:
SNIM being worried that a hand over of electrityc and water production impedes their production, as they do not trust the private sector to function properly
Ethnic minorities not using health facilities, as they can not communicate with staff and staff does not repect their traditions
Change of public perception to level of price for elctricity in the region, perception of the functions of ADMARC

24. Policy tools Prices Employment Access to goods and services Assets
Transfers and taxes
Governance
In the political sphere:
institutional reform in South Asia has guaranteed one third seats in local government to women
governance initiatives in Brazil encourage participation in local budget design and execution.
In the social sphere:
power relations shift when women in Ethiopia are able to hold men accountable through reform of the justice system
Or when minority groups in Romania achieve greater access to information about their legal rights.

25. 1. Country Social Analysis (CSA)
CSA is an upstream, political economy analysis that seeks to inform policy dialogue and to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of development interventions
provide recommendations for the removal of barriers to equal opportunities for participating in development, accessing public institutions and holding them accountable,

26. The CSA framework analyzes the interaction between two dimensions:
Social diversity, assets, and livelihoods
What is the existing distribution of and access to assets and services across different social groups? What is the impact of that distribution in the livelihoods and coping strategies of the poor?
Power, institutions, and governance
What are the institutions that mediate access of the poor to assets and services? How do these institutions impact policy making and resource reallocation ?

27. 1.2. Stakeholder analysis 1.2.1. Macro-level stakeholder analysis
Questions: Who are the stakeholders? What is their position with respect to policy change? What motivates them?
Tools: Policy interest matrix
Political mapping
Macro-level institutional analysis
Questions: What are the institutional rules and relationships that influence policy reform?
Tools: Network analysis
Transaction cost analysis

28. 2. Understanding the policy implementation process
Analysis of the process of implementation allows us to explore how, why and under what conditions a policy intervention might work, or fail
Objective: a greater understanding of the contextual factors, mechanisms and processes underlying a policy’s success or failure.

29. Stakeholders: focuses on interests and the relative importance and influence of different interests groups and actors and the role each might play in the implementation process

30. Institutions: as a sets of rules that govern individual and collective behavior. Assesses whether institutions mediate and distort the anticipated poverty and social impact of policy reform
Institutions may be formal ( legal systems, property rights, enforcement mechanisms); or informal, (cultural practices and social norms)

31. Institutions operate and influence behavior in different domains of daily life:
the state domain (governing justice, political processes and service delivery),
the market domain (governing credit, labor and goods) and
the societal domain (governing community and family behavior).

32. 2. Understanding the policy implementation process
2.1. Meso-level Stakeholder Analysis
Objective: To test assumptions about the interests of social actors.
Tools: Stakeholder analysis matrices
Micro-political mapping
Force field analysis

33. 2.2. Meso-level Institutional analysis
Objective: To test assumptions about the social rules governing the implementation of policy
Tools: Organizational (static and process) mapping

34. 3. Understanding the impacts of policy agenda
Objective: examining the likely or actual impact of policy reform  at the meso and micro levels
Social models are applied
evaluating winners and losers
understanding how different social groups act in the face of the events and how institutions impact on their lives,
Tools: Analytical frameworks that provide a “theory of change” and employ concepts of opportunity structure, shocks, assets, entitlements, capabilities

35. Methods and data
Objective: Employing a common set of questions on impacts, linked to the transmission channels
Tools: A range of methods that generate both qualitative and quantitative data

36. 4. Policy Analysis: Assessing uncertainties and risks to policy reform
Objective: Assessing how confident we are that the predicted impacts will occur?
Risk assessment: utilizing PSIA data and analysis to identify and map the risks to policy reform.
Institutional risks, political economy, exogenous, and country risks

37. Scenario analysis help us choose the policy option that is most likely to result in our desired outcome
(4 steps: Identify the counterfactual, Identify scenarios for policy reform, Analyze the impact of each scenario against the counterfactual, Compare and choose the preferred scenario)

39. Participatory poverty assessment/wealth ranking
Develop farmers own criteria on poverty and well-being indicators
Solicit farmers assessment of relative poverty levels of different households and determining factors
Identify farmers priorities for improving their well-being

40. Community resource mapping