1. Micro-Simulation Modelling of Domestic Tourism in Sweden Anders Lundgren Dep. Geography, Umeå University KIRUNA

2. SVERIGE System for Visualizing Economic and Regional Influences Governing the Environment Microsimulation SVERIGE is a Microsimulation model based on microdata on the Swedish population Socioeconomic data for ALL individuals

3. Current Modules FertilityEducation Cohabitation and marriage Employment and earnings MortalityImmigration DivorceEmigration Leaving home Migration

4. What is microsimulation? Micro = individual level Microsimulation model - Simulation model that describes the behaviour of individual micro units and permits analysis of the impacts of the environment Laboratory ”world” for testing policies dynamic and spatialSVERIGE is dynamic and spatial - What happens if we increase immigration?

5. Experiment Base case – 60 000 immigrants 80 000 immigrants

6. ”National” Tourism module How many trips are done? What do they do? Where do people go? Exchange of tourists between LA- regions

7. Swedish Tourist Database Managed by Åre marknadsfakta 14 years 24 000 interviews every year Using 10 years

8. Number of cases Randomly collected Densely populated areas are well represented

9. Different categories of tourism Domestic travel with at least one night away from home done at leisure time

10. Limitations in data To few observations to perform regressions analyses IF you look at municipalities and each activity in TDB

11. LA-regions

12. Activity/purpose in TDB Meeting friends and relatives Visit second home Piece and quiet/relaxation (Experience) Pleasure and entertainment (Experience) Community with others (Experience) Skiing (Participate/be active in) Sun&swimming (Participate/be active in) Events (away 00-01) Outdoor life (Participate/be active in) Sports (Participate/be active in) Course & meeting as leisure assignment Cultural activity (Participate/be active in) Cultural environment (Experience) Rush and speed (Experience) Seclusion (Experience) Prophylaxis, health care (Participate/be active in) Natural environment (Experience) Fishing (Participate/be active in) Other activity (Participate/be active in) Private matters/look for job (Experience) See the country (Experience) Buy things Attraction (Visit, watch, listen to) Stimulation (Experience) Education/studies (Participate/be active in) Urban environment (Experience) Parks (Visit, watch, listen to) Hunting (Participate/be active in) Golf (Participate/be active in) Adventure and excitement (Experience) School trip (Experience)

13. Aggregated activities

14. A model for number of trips The two key factors that make tourism possible is access to money and leisure time Age group– divided into 5 groups Income – household income Gender Education – university degree or not If the individual has children at home or not If the individual is single or not Size of place of residence

15. A model for choice of activities Age, gender, income and lifecycle are key factors that affect activity choice Age group– divided into 5 groups Income – household income Gender Education – university degree or not If the individual has children at home or not If the individual is single or not Main residential region

16. Regression analysis Poisson regression for the number of trips – most people make 1 trip per month - 98% within 5 trips. Multinomial logit regression for the choice between 10 activities

17. Choice of destination Interaction model used for destination choice Compare calculated and observed number of trips from TDB Interaction model estimated by using iteration and minimising misplaced flows

18. Results Distance is important for the activities VSH and sun/bath – people prefer to do that close to home. Skiers and people who visits friends and relatives are less concerned about distance. X 1000

19. Tourism Flows Misplaced flows

20. Social Bond Activity

21. Visit Second Home

22. Sun and Bath

23. Skiing

24. Problems Multinomial logit regression for destination choice failed ”Empty” LA-regions – no observations ”Holes” in the data – system missing

25. Data needs More observations for individuals in sparsely populated areas Purpose NOT mixed with activity ”Clean” the array of variables with respect to desired information What about immigrants? Improve ”visit second home” and ”social bond” activities by using SCB- data

26. Future experiments Change in demand by running ”SVERIGE” – 50 years forward – divorce, labour market, migration Change supply – move central point of attraction

27. Summary We model the flow of tourists between LA-regions TDB explain choice of activities An interaction model calculates the choice of place

28. END Questions?