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THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.
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Possible 4 th & 5 th place prizes
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192,000 non-farm payrolls added in Feb 220,000 private sector jobs added (good sign) -30,000 gov’t jobs cut (also good sign) Initial jobless claims fell to 368,000 last week below 400,000 key level Unemployment rate 8.9%
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Oil v.s. Econ Data
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Market Buzz after jobs data Airtime: Fri. March. 4 2011 | 9:42 AM ET
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Oil continues to dictate the market However, economic data has been good Economy gaining traction Headlines will move markets in coming weeks due to lack of earnings and econ data Saudi Arabia still markets biggest concern
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Engine of the economy Facilitate the process of economic development Must have lending in order to have sustainable economic growth Financials reflect the health of the economy
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Financials leading the way Airtime: Mon. Feb. 7 2011 | 5:16 PM ET
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BAC JPM C WFC
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HOLD 39% OF ALL U.S. CUSTOMER DEPOSITS BofA JPM Citi Wells TOTAL ASSETS $2.4 Trillion $2.0 Trillion $1.9 Trillion $1.2 Trillion
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U.S. largest retail bank, home lender, and investment bank Acquired Merrill for $50 billion in ’09 Good play on the U.S. consumer & housing market recovery Exposure to Asia with Merrill Lynch
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Largest U.S. bank by market capitalization Bought Bear Sterns & Washington Mutual in ’08 Strongest balance sheet, “Best in Breed” Likely to be the first major bank to increase dividend
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Largest international banking exposure U.S. gov’t took a 36% stake in Citi worth $25 billion in ‘09 Gov’t made Citi unwind billions in assets to get smaller Citi returned back to private ownership in late ’10 Good emerging market play
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Large retail banking and home lending business Small investment banking business compared BAC, JPM, and Citi Bought Wachovia in ‘08 Also good play on U.S. consumer & housing market Low international exposure
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GS MS JEF
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UBS BCS DB
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RY TD BNS
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At the center of the recent financial credit crisis & housing bubble Balance sheets were distressed Suffered hundreds of billions in losses The financial markets were on the brink of collapse Depression was immanent Banks bailed out around the world Lots of consolidation in the industry Fed used monetary policy to help banks Lowered bank barrowing interest rates to 0.25%
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On going Legal issues 5 years or more of it Foreclosure issues Robo signing Financial Regulation Changed business models
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Banking Golden Age Airtime: Thurs. Jan. 13 2011 | 3:36 PM ET
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In the beginning of a banking super cycle Cash rich, balance sheets are strong again Credit card delinquencies & mortgage foreclosures are down Earnings power in “sharp up-trend” Starting to lend more Stocks trading below book value/cash value Worst is behind them
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BANK FAILURES IN U.S. 2008-25 2009-140 2010-157 2011-14 Total 2008-Feb 2011: 336 Five years prior to 2008, only 11 banks failed Less banks = more market share for the remaining banks
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U.S. Treasury recently presented Congress with options for weaning the $11 trillion mortgage market from dependence on Gov’t Reduce taxpayer exposure Puts private investors on the hook
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U.S. banks in strongest position to take over the housing market When economy recovers, credit is needed, it will have to come from banks They will earn a lot in this position Banks have the capital and balance sheets to handle it
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Last month, Federal Reserve told banks to stress test capital levels for new recession and 11% unemployment Fed will start giving banks permission to increase dividends who pass stress test
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Goldman Sachs: Large Cap commercial banks one of their “Top trades in 2011” Re-introducing dividends will bring in new money, push financials higher (big pension & mutual funds) Some expect financial sector to grow 24% in 2011 Financials must perform well in 2011 for the market to go higher
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6 months chart of S&P 500
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Is the Market Due for a Correction? Airtime: Thurs. March. 4 2011 | 10:27 AMET
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Banks ready for another run? Have commodities & tech topped out short- term?
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Gaddafi Cornered Airtime: Fri. Feb. 25 2011 | 6:24 PM ET
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