1. Warnings and Geographic Information Systems For the National Weather Service Ken Waters Regional Scientist Pacific Region Headquarters National Weather Service, Honolulu HI July 13, 2005 Silver Spring, MD

2. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Polygon Team Created to help move the NWS from county-based warnings to polygon-based warnings Created to help move the NWS from county-based warnings to polygon-based warnings TEAM MEMBERS: Mike Looney, CRH (facilitator) Mike Looney, CRH (facilitator) Mike Coyne, MIC Huntsville MS Mike Coyne, MIC Huntsville MS Steve Naglic, WCM WFO Columbia SC Steve Naglic, WCM WFO Columbia SC Pete Wolf, SOO WFO Jacksonville FL Pete Wolf, SOO WFO Jacksonville FL Jeff Lorens, WRH Jeff Lorens, WRH Brent McAloney, OCWWS Brent McAloney, OCWWS Doug Young, OCWWS Doug Young, OCWWS Noreen Schwein, CRH Noreen Schwein, CRH Joe Shaffer, SPC Joe Shaffer, SPC Rich Okulski, OAA Rich Okulski, OAA Ken Waters, PRH Ken Waters, PRH Feb. 2004: Regions meet to study this issue Feb. 2004: Regions meet to study this issue Mar. 2004: Meeting Information presented to MSD Chiefs Mar. 2004: Meeting Information presented to MSD Chiefs Apr. 2004: Gen. Johnson asks PR Regional Director Jeff LaDouce to commission a polygon warning team Apr. 2004: Gen. Johnson asks PR Regional Director Jeff LaDouce to commission a polygon warning team June 2004: Meeting information presented to Ops Committee June 2004: Meeting information presented to Ops Committee June 2004: Polygon Team Chartered June 2004: Polygon Team Chartered Aug. 2004: First formal Polygon Team Meeting Aug. 2004: First formal Polygon Team Meeting Sep. 2004: Verification Scoring Sub-team Launched Sep. 2004: Verification Scoring Sub-team Launched Jan. 2005: AMS Presentation Jan. 2005: AMS Presentation Mar. 2005: Prototype Test Started Mar. 2005: Prototype Test Started Sep. 2005: Scheduled end of Polygon Prototype Test Sep. 2005: Scheduled end of Polygon Prototype Test

3. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region County vs. Polygon Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom of all TORs, SVRs, FFWs, and SMWs. Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom of all TORs, SVRs, FFWs, and SMWs.

4. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Polygon Eliminates Area False Alarmed Polygon Advantages

5. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Prototype Test

6. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Polygon Team Challenges Software Issues Software Issues Workload Concerns Workload Concerns Verification Verification Dissemination Dissemination

7. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Jackson MS Apr 5-7 “Trial by fire”

8. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Example: FFW issued July 10 th, 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis) 10 counties warned in west central Alabama---results in 25 vertices due to Warngen constraining boundaries to political county boundaries!

9. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Example: FFW issued July 10 th, 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis) Using the polygon method reduces the definition to only 5 vertices, covers largely the same constituency, and allows the forecaster much more flexibility to warn for the area the hazard is expected---rather than for county boundaries.

10. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Another Example---Warngen Simplifying Polygon to County Boundary Tornado warning issued for Dent Co. MO What happens if the tornado crosses like….

11. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Offices Not Watching Size of Pathcast in Warngen

12. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Another interesting case study, May 30, 2004 30/2314Z: WFO St. Louis forecaster issued tornado warning for Washington Co. IL, conforming the polygon to “more or less” the shape of the county 30/2319Z: WFO Paducah issued tornado warning for neighboring Perry Co. IL 30/2330Z: Confirmed tornado touchdown in Dubois, Washington County IL The irony of all this?: Using polygons as issued by the WFO’s, this event was unwarned! Using legacy county verification, WFO St. Louis warned for the event.

13. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Now that I’ve got your attention….. Let’s talk some about GIS and how it can relate to the National Weather Service…….

14. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region What is a GIS? Geographic Information System Geographic Information System DEFINITION: An organized collection of computer hardware, software, geographic data, and personnel designed to efficiently capture, store, update, manipulate, analyze, and display all forms of geographically referenced information DEFINITION: An organized collection of computer hardware, software, geographic data, and personnel designed to efficiently capture, store, update, manipulate, analyze, and display all forms of geographically referenced information

15. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region GIS Data Collection of: Collection of: PointsPoints Surface observations Surface observations LinesLines Hurricane tracks Hurricane tracks Tornado trajectories Tornado trajectories PolygonsPolygons Short-fuse warnings (TOR, SVR, FFW, SMW) Short-fuse warnings (TOR, SVR, FFW, SMW) Watches (SPC Outline) Watches (SPC Outline) Other watches/warnings using preexisting polygons such as county outlines Other watches/warnings using preexisting polygons such as county outlines 3-dimensional objects3-dimensional objects Volumetric river basins Volumetric river basins

16. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region GIS Data Formats Most commonly used standard is the ESRI “shapefile”, which is widely supported across industry. Most commonly used standard is the ESRI “shapefile”, which is widely supported across industry. Each shapefile (also known as a theme or layer) is composed of at least three file components which describe the geographic (latitude/longitude) coordinates and data attributes that make up each shape Each shapefile (also known as a theme or layer) is composed of at least three file components which describe the geographic (latitude/longitude) coordinates and data attributes that make up each shape

17. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region GIS Software Desktop Desktop ESRI ArcGISESRI ArcGIS ESRI ArcViewESRI ArcView MapDeskMapDesk Public Domain: GRASSPublic Domain: GRASS Server Server ESRI ArcIMSESRI ArcIMS ESRI ArcGIS ServerESRI ArcGIS Server Public Domain: UMinn MapserverPublic Domain: UMinn Mapserver Non-GIS Software Non-GIS Software AWIPS (uses shapefiles)AWIPS (uses shapefiles)

18. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region NWS Data Uses formats not familiar to GIS users: Uses formats not familiar to GIS users: WMO GRIB1 & 2WMO GRIB1 & 2 NDFD Grids NDFD Grids NCEP Models NCEP Models WMO Binary Universal Form for the Representation (BUFR) of meteorological dataWMO Binary Universal Form for the Representation (BUFR) of meteorological data Soundings etc. Soundings etc. Level II & Level III radarLevel II & Level III radar Unique binary format in radial format around a single station Unique binary format in radial format around a single station ALL are already georeferenced!

19. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Convergence Looking for ways to merge hydrometeorologic data with GIS - Convert NWS data sets into georeferenced, GIS-friendly formats - Disseminate NWS data using GIS structure such as Internet Mapping Systems

20. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region One Example… Converting warning polygons into GIS/georeferenced data files Converting warning polygons into GIS/georeferenced data files

21. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Archiving short-fused NWS warnings since mid- 2003. Converting then-little-used polygons at the bottom of the warnings to GIS data sets using AWIPS and freeware software tools Interesting patterns result, especially when the warning sets are shown over time…

22. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Step 1: Capture the polygon points Set up a “trigger” mechanism in AWIPS to capture all short-term warnings: Set up a “trigger” mechanism in AWIPS to capture all short-term warnings: TOR – tornado warningsTOR – tornado warnings SVR – severe thunderstorm warningsSVR – severe thunderstorm warnings FFW – flash flood warningsFFW – flash flood warnings SMW – special marine warningsSMW – special marine warnings

23. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Step 2: Parse the warning text Extract all the needed information: Issue Time UGC Expiration Time VTEC line ….and….of course… …the polygon vertices

24. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Step 3: At scheduled intervals update the “flat file” database Using only open source (“freeware”) software Using only open source (“freeware”) software Code written in PerlCode written in Perl Polygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” formatPolygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” format “gen” format is common ASCII format that ESRI products can convert to/from using scripts “gen” format is common ASCII format that ESRI products can convert to/from using scripts Check for new warnings each minute –and- check for expired warnings each minute as well Check for new warnings each minute –and- check for expired warnings each minute as well

25. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Step 4: Convert “gen” format into standard shapefile format

26. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region The long-term database can then be used in a variety of ways to provide post-analysis and to look for trends (both weather-related as well as policy-related) Examples: Area of polygon (warned areas) Verification studies (e.g. compare LSR with warnings Provide summaries of storm seasons

27. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Examples – Tornado Warnings 2004

28. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Examples – Severe Thunderstorm Warnings 2004

29. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Examples – Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

30. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Special Marine Warnings

31. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles TORNADO REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005 Note the remarkable paucity of confirmed tornado reports for 2005!

32. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region …in contrast to…. One remarkable day, May 30 th 2004 when severe weather broke out from Texas to Iowa to the Carolinas

33. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region GIS Allows Interactive Analysis Such as Overlaying Polygon Warnings With Storm Reports

34. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles HAIL REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005

35. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles WIND REPORTS Jan- Jun 2005

36. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Tendency to align warnings to county borders continued in 2004

37. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Flash Flood Warnings the most “county-based” of all four short- fuse warning types

38. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Applications For Viewing Polygon Warnings CONUS map showing warnings, updated each minute: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ CONUS map showing warnings, updated each minute: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html Iowa Mesonet: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml Iowa Mesonet: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml New NWS RIDGE Site: New NWS RIDGE Site: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/RIDGE

39. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Busy Day….! http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/

40. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region ArcIMS Map Service http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html

41. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Includes LSR data from SPC

42. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Texas A&M Mesonet Site http://mesonet.tamu.edu/PolygonTest/

43. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Iowa Environmental Mesonet http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml

44. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region New RIDGE Site (hosted on SRH server) Uses web technology to “simulate” an Internet map server Allows several different radar products (including SRM) on top of hillshaded topography, roads, counties, rivers Includes ability to animate and zoom …and….an overlay of the active warnings in effect at the time of the radar image

45. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Where do we go from here…..? Look at a new type of All-Hazards radio Look at a new type of All-Hazards radio Focusing on points in space rather than geopolitical countiesFocusing on points in space rather than geopolitical counties Fixed radio could be programmed with location (either latitude/longitude, or relative to major city [e.g., 20 mi NW of Houston]Fixed radio could be programmed with location (either latitude/longitude, or relative to major city [e.g., 20 mi NW of Houston] Moving radios (including cell phones, PDA devices, all- hazard radios in cars, buses, trains) could be located using the now more commonly found GPS unitsMoving radios (including cell phones, PDA devices, all- hazard radios in cars, buses, trains) could be located using the now more commonly found GPS units

46. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region New NOAA Radio Concept Warning issued for Okmulgee and McIntosh Counties. New NWR’s use latitude/longitude (or city) rather than county/SAME code. Residents in Checotah will not be alerted but residents in Stidham are, even though both are in McIntosh County. GPS-enabled cell phones/cars travelling on I-40 within polygon would be alerted also.

47. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Where do we go from here…..? Automated GIS techniques Automated GIS techniques Greatly facilitate verificationGreatly facilitate verification Provide more statistics (e.g., how many people were warned with each warning by linking to population databases)Provide more statistics (e.g., how many people were warned with each warning by linking to population databases) More robust web dissemination possibilities --- including the ability to provide custom information based on user criteriaMore robust web dissemination possibilities --- including the ability to provide custom information based on user criteria ONE WARNING: care must be taken to consider private sector concerns here as some businesses are also taking this road ONE WARNING: care must be taken to consider private sector concerns here as some businesses are also taking this road

48. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Private Sector Opportunities Why not work WITH private sector. Some private sector companies are already strongly endorsing the polygon warning methods

49. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Why GIS….? 1.Compatibility with many other public, private, and government agencies that already use GIS data for their work and analysis 2.GIS has great analysis capabilities…able to do “what if” analysis and look for trends 3.Using polygon warnings we can provide better service by highlighting where the real threat is without worrying about geopolitical boundaries 4. A BETTER SERVICE TO OUR PUBLIC!

50. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Questions? My Website: My Website: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/gishttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/gishttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/gis Ken Waters Regional Scientist NWS Pacific Region Honolulu, Hawaii Ken.waters@noaa.gov (808) 532-6413