1. March 25 th Severe Weather Event: Highlighting the difficulties we face as meteorology, and a look into the future? Austin Harris

2. Outline Background: the severe weather (or the lack there of) preceding the event The forecast: what were the threats and how were they communicated? A timeline of the event: a look from the eyes of the forecaster AND the public Discussion: What could have been done? And what should be done in the future?

6. “We are in unchartered territory with respect to lack of severe weather. This has never happened in the record of SPC watches dating back to 1970.” – G Carbin So far this year: 4 tornado watches; 0 T-storm watches Normal- 52 tornado watches issued by this date each year IN SUMMARY: Severe weather has been isolated the last two years, and this is continuing into 2015

7. There is no one clear reason to explain the lack of tornadoes. We're in a persistent pattern that suppresses severe weather, and the right ingredients -- moisture, instability, and lift -- have not been brought together in any consistent way so far this year.” – G Carbin Meridonal Wind Anomalies (1/1/15-3/2415) 500 mb700 mb 850 mb 925 mb

8. Geopotential Height Anomalies (1/1/15-3/2415) Hypothesis: Persistent western ridge and eastern trough aka “polar vortex” places tornado alley in anomalous northerly flow and in a region of anomalous decent Any other thoughts? 500 mb700 mb 850 mb 925 mb

9. Meridonal wind (left): anomalous northerly flow in plains between 2013- 2015 500 mb geopotential height (right): the polar vortex!!! 2013-2015 Averages This seems to be a trend dating back nearly 3 years- a climatological shift?

10. …SUMMARY… SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED… …ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND…...THESE STORMS COULD YIELD A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND

14. Even the smartest of people are tough to forecast for Screen shots of mine Timeline of the event 4:30 Tell friend to put car in garage 5:22 Tornado Warning issued W of Sand Springs, OK 5:34 Tornado hits mobile home park in Sand Springs, killing one person 5:43 Call intelligent friend just south of downtown Tulsa, he’s asleep. Come on, man!

16. Although storms developed east of OKC, storms were expected to develop along a cold front As the storms developed, the NWS and local hero Gary England began spreading the word, emphasizing the low tor risks.

19. The Timeline 6:30 City Leaders in Moore claim to have sounded sirens 6:32 NWS issues Sv T-storm for OKC/Moore 6:35 Estimated time tornado touches down 6:36 NWS tweets that there is no tornado, but straight line winds instead 6:38 NWS tweets that there IS A TORNADO 6:41 Tornado warning issued for OKC 6:43 Tornado warning issued for Moore

23. Local Media Response KFOR- “MOORE, Okla. – Several residents in Moore say they had only seconds to take cover before their homes were hit by a tornado on Wednesday evening” “However, many residents say sirens in the area were not going off and a tornado warning was not issued for several minutes” Several residents didn’t make it to their storm shelter, and were busy watching from the “safety” of their porches, vehicles, and overpasses….. DOH!

24. NWS Norman Response

26. Storm Reports v SPC Day 1 Moore tornado: negative lead time, although no deaths occurred. Sand Springs tornado: appx 15 minutes lead time No tornado watches issued- 11 tornadoes occurred on this date. BUST OR NO?

27. The Questions What could have been done? Is the SPC Day 1 outlook good enough? Can we blame the NWS? Should we always be reminding the audience that anything can happen… so prepare for the worst? Can the NWS survive without the media?

28. The Questions Should we all be sending out the same information? Which way is best? Probabilistic v deterministic Will these changes make a difference?

29. Questions Are tornado sirens the way to go? Did the clarification by NWS / media make things worse? County based warnings, yay / nay? Should emergency managers sound the alarm or should METs?

30. The Questions Accuweather’s 15 minute lead time…. Are they full of crap? What are the roles of the private / public sector… can Accuweather replace the NWS?

31. In Summary: In MY opinion This was a complex event that was difficult to warn for Working together is a must; need to limit conflicting messages Improving communication should be the front line of severe weather forecasting, and it is unclear as to which approach we should take – Phones as the PRIMARY way of disseminating warnings, sirens as a SECONDARY method – Communicating the uncertainty in forecasts is also needed (whether or not this can be done with probabilistic charts, I don’t know) – Severe weather education: more emphasis should be placed on Do’s and Don’ts