1. On-going WMO Demonstration Projects related to EXPO2010 Multi Hazard Early Warning System Multi Hazard Early Warning System Leading by SMB/CMALeading by SMB/CMA NWP-Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast RDP NWP-Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast RDP Leading by RSMC Tokyo & CMALeading by RSMC Tokyo & CMA Landfall Typhoon FDP Landfall Typhoon FDP Leading by STI/CMA, East China RMC/CMA & RSMC TokyoLeading by STI/CMA, East China RMC/CMA & RSMC Tokyo WENS WENS Leading by SMB/CMALeading by SMB/CMA

2. WMO Landfall Typhoon Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-LTFDP) Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA East China RMC/CMA RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Centre WMO Landfall Typhoon Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-LTFDP) Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA East China RMC/CMA RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Centre Implementing duration: 2010-2012 Guided by WWRP, TCP, and PWSP Focal point: Hui YU, STI/CMA

3. Objectives To strengthen the ability of forecasters and decision- makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts; To strengthen the ability of forecasters and decision- makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts; To assess the WMO-LTFDP’s impacts on the enhancement of the ability in typhoon forecast as well as its social and economic benefits; To assess the WMO-LTFDP’s impacts on the enhancement of the ability in typhoon forecast as well as its social and economic benefits; To enhance the capability of forecasting landfall typhoon in the “Shanghai MHEWS” and to provide a better service for the Expo 2010; To enhance the capability of forecasting landfall typhoon in the “Shanghai MHEWS” and to provide a better service for the Expo 2010; To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced forecasting technique in the world; To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced forecasting technique in the world; To promote the implementation of the most advanced forecasting technique for landfall typhoon in WMO members. To promote the implementation of the most advanced forecasting technique for landfall typhoon in WMO members.

4. Tasks Collection and integration of real-time forecast data Verification of forecasts Dissemination of products Benefit Assessment Forecast reliability analyses

5. Tasks (5-1) Collection and integration of real-time forecast data Real time forecast products for North Western Pacific tropical cyclone Real time forecast products for North Western Pacific tropical cyclone Products to be collected Products to be collected center location intensity place and time of landfall gale extension rainfall intensity and distribution NWP gridded outputs ensemble prediction products ……

6. Traditional (or standard) verification Traditional (or standard) verification Errors of predicted track, moving speed and direction, skill scores;Errors of predicted track, moving speed and direction, skill scores; Errors of predicted intensity, changing trend of intensity;Errors of predicted intensity, changing trend of intensity; Errors of landfall location and time;Errors of landfall location and time; TS score of rainfall;TS score of rainfall; ………… Tasks (5-2) Verification of forecasts

7. Non-traditional verification Non-traditional verification Feature-Based Forecast EvaluationFeature-Based Forecast Evaluation gale extend and rainstorm area gale extend and rainstorm area position (phase) error, error trend, …… position (phase) error, error trend, …… Consistency and persistenceConsistency and persistence Tasks (5-2) Verification of forecasts (Cont’d)

8. Assess the reliability of forecasts based on the calculation of forecast errors, object-based diagnostic evaluation and the evaluation of consistency and persistence.Assess the reliability of forecasts based on the calculation of forecast errors, object-based diagnostic evaluation and the evaluation of consistency and persistence. Analyze the risk and difficulty of a particular forecast.Analyze the risk and difficulty of a particular forecast. Tasks (5-3) Forecast reliability analyses

9. Develop and produce performance information continually, including a mechanism for managing data, integrating operational criteria with performance information and distribution of the performance information when needed is vital.Develop and produce performance information continually, including a mechanism for managing data, integrating operational criteria with performance information and distribution of the performance information when needed is vital. Set up a dissemination platformSet up a dissemination platform Tasks (5-4) Dissemination of products

10. Assessment on LTFDP ’ s contribution to the operational prediction Assessment on LTFDP ’ s contribution to the operational prediction Frequency of the usage of evaluation information in operational prediction during the EXPO 2010;Frequency of the usage of evaluation information in operational prediction during the EXPO 2010; Improvement of the performance of the landfall typhoon operational prediction with the implementation of LTFDP.Improvement of the performance of the landfall typhoon operational prediction with the implementation of LTFDP. Social impact studies Social impact studies To identify and evaluate societal and economic impacts of the LTFDP activities for forecasters and the organizers of the EXPO 2010. To identify and evaluate societal and economic impacts of the LTFDP activities for forecasters and the organizers of the EXPO 2010. Tasks (5-5) Benefit Assessment

11. Collaboration between NWP-Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast RDP and Landfall Typhoon FDP Ensemble TC track and intensity forecastEnsemble TC track and intensity forecast Verification information on ensemble forecastVerification information on ensemble forecast Application feedback from forecastersApplication feedback from forecasters

12. Thank you for your attention

13. What are expected from THORPEX during EXPO2010 Multi Hazard Early Warning System Multi Hazard Early Warning System Gridded outputs of ensemble systemsGridded outputs of ensemble systems Real time or 48 hours delayReal time or 48 hours delay NWP-Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast RDP NWP-Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast RDP Ensemble TC track and intensity forecastEnsemble TC track and intensity forecast Real time or ?? hours delayReal time or ?? hours delay Verification informationVerification information Landfall Typhoon FDP Landfall Typhoon FDP Ensemble TC forecast and verification info (from above RDP)Ensemble TC forecast and verification info (from above RDP)

14. STISMCSRMAC …… Typhoon Warning Center Monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in NWP, especially those with potential to affect East China Region Monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in NWP, especially those with potential to affect East China Region Issue tropical cyclone warnings for East China Region Issue tropical cyclone warnings for East China Region SMB (Regional Center)

15. Operational platform of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center

16. Tropical cyclone forecast operational flow chart

17. Why this proposal (To be Cont’d) 1. Quite limited techniques for TC analyses and forecast in current system: only in-house techniques and information from GTS and internet are accessibleonly in-house techniques and information from GTS and internet are accessible Lacking of in-time accessibility to many advanced techniques in the worldLacking of in-time accessibility to many advanced techniques in the world

18. TC Forecast Center: NMC/CMA RSMC Tokyo JTWC NTC/KMA Domestic Model: GRAPES_TCM/STI TC Global Model/CMA Regional TC Model/ITMM International Model: Global TC Model/JMA Global Model/UKMO

19. Real time super-ensemble product Based on in-house techniques and GTS

20. Why this proposal (To be Cont’d) 2.Quite limited information on the performance of different analyses and forecast techniques, especially for landfall TC Very limited real-time/periodic error information of deterministic track and intensity forecast are accessibleVery limited real-time/periodic error information of deterministic track and intensity forecast are accessible Lacking of systematic evaluation on landfall TC forecast, such as landfall time/position, wind/rainfall predictionLacking of systematic evaluation on landfall TC forecast, such as landfall time/position, wind/rainfall prediction

21. Real time forecast verification product Track error Direction error Speed error Absolute intensity error Intensity tendency error

22. Periodic forecast verification 1-year or longer

23. MET Implemented in Regional Weather Prediction System 1.MODE, Scores, Errors 2.H, U, V ， Precipitation of regional model

24. Why this proposal 3. Lacking of benefit assessment in current system Impact on the forecast and warning activity of advanced techniquesImpact on the forecast and warning activity of advanced techniques Social impact of improved forecast and warning activitySocial impact of improved forecast and warning activity