1. Contributing to sustainable development in Vietnam Downscaled climate projections workshop - Melbourne, 12 December 2012 Wendy Conway Lamb, AusAID

2. Context: Why are we doing this project? Australian aid program goals AusAID-CSIRO Alliance Australia Vietnam joint aid program strategy High resolution downscaling project goals

3. Australian aid program goals MDGs Aid Program Goal Helping people to overcome poverty MDG 7 – Ensure environmental sustainability MDG 8 – Develop a global partnership for development Aid Program Strategic Goals Saving lives Promoting opportunities for all Sustainable economic development Effective governance Humanitarian and disaster relief Development objective no. 8 Reducing the negative impacts of climate change and other environmental factors

4. Using science to deliver more effective aid 1.Build the evidence base for responding to complex challenges (including climate change) 2.Inform development decisions and planning, to improve livelihoods of poor people 3.Build Australia’s effectiveness as a global partner in research for development AusAID-CSIRO Alliance Research for Development (R4D)

5. Australia Vietnam joint aid program strategy 2010-2015 Human resource development Economic integration (including infrastructure) Economic integration (including infrastructure) Environmental sustainability (including climate change, water & sanitation) Environmental sustainability (including climate change, water & sanitation) Human resource development Economic integration (including infrastructure) Economic integration (including infrastructure)

6. To achieve this goal, we will Aid program’s approach to climate change in Vietnam Australia supports the Government of Vietnam in the development and implementation of its climate change response that builds community resilience and promotes low carbon growth Build Community Resilience by working at the community level (in partnership with NGOs and local government) to strengthen communities’ ability to respond and adapt to climate change, including climate-related disasters Build Community Resilience by working at the community level (in partnership with NGOs and local government) to strengthen communities’ ability to respond and adapt to climate change, including climate-related disasters Promote Low-Carbon Growth by working with government to identify low- carbon approaches to development, including the identification of mitigation options with strong development co-benefits (such as energy efficiency) Promote Low-Carbon Growth by working with government to identify low- carbon approaches to development, including the identification of mitigation options with strong development co-benefits (such as energy efficiency) Enabling Vietnam’s Climate Change Response through assistance to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change, identify practical approaches to respond, and policy dialogue to help prioritise investment & institutional reform Enabling Vietnam’s Climate Change Response through assistance to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change, identify practical approaches to respond, and policy dialogue to help prioritise investment & institutional reform Integrating Climate Change Across the Vietnam Program supported by

7. Vietnam is vulnerable: Addressing climate change is key to ensuring Vietnam’s development gains are not undone and food security is guaranteed for millions of its people Rationale for this project

8. Consultations (early 2011)  Identified need to better understand climate change effects at local level Government of Vietnam policy  Requires all provinces to develop climate change action plans under the NTP-RCC Challenge: how to plan and prioritise?  Significant uncertainties around climate change impacts: what / where / when  Opportunity costs: every $ / VND spent on adaptation could have been spent elsewhere Experience  Govt of Vietnam requested assistance to build on the downscaling work they had started  CSIRO has undertaken similar downscaled projection work in Indonesia and Pacific

9. 1.Improve Vietnam’s understanding of the impacts of climate change 2.Integrate past and current research for a more complete assessment of the potential effects of climate change 3.Provide information necessary for appropriate planning and investment to adapt to climate change 4.Develop innovative communications tools to ensure the data generated are widely available Aims of the project

10. to…? How to get from…

11. Information only of value if it leads to better understanding, decisions, actions… Role of climate data in development Steve Easterbrook, adapted from Russ Ackoff’s ‘From Data to Wisdom’ (1989)

12. 1.Ownership by the stakeholders who need to understand and use the information  Representatives of Government of Vietnam actively involved (and here today)  Aligns with Government of Vietnam’s own priorities and institutional structures  Developed in response to an identified and agreed need  Key element of the program is capacity building, so that the approach will be sustainable How to get from climate projections to better planning and investment?

13. 2.Partnership between knowledge generators and those who will use the knowledge  Not working in siloes: scientists and decision- makers need to understand each other and work together  That is the premise of the AusAID-CSIRO R4D Alliance: each can add value.  Australia’s role in ‘Asian Century’: one-way relationship between donor and recipient not constructive  Australia can learn from Government of Vietnam: science institute embedded in the ministry  Draw on a range of partnerships with others, including within the Australian Government, with other donors (e.g. GIZ and the ADB), NGOs and research institutions.

14. 3.Delivering and communicating results Not just about telling story to media and securing funds. Good communication:  facilitates ongoing learning and improvement  focuses the project on achieving results  helps ensure decisions are evidence-based  builds trust and support among stakeholders  allows others to build on and replicate the methodology: so the benefits are sustained A major factor for success will be how the results are translated into guidance to help decision-makers identify and prioritise adaptive strategies in their development planning and budgeting  Welcome development of Communications Strategy

15. Accra Agenda for Action (AAA, 2008): 1.Ownership 2.Inclusive partnerships 3.Delivering results This project upholds these principles: 1.Government of Vietnam requested this project and is strongly engaged in implementing it 2.Partnership between governments, and between scientists, decision-makers and beneficiaries 3.Focus on achieving, communicating and learning from results These 3 themes reflect internationally agreed principles of aid effectiveness

16. What is the role of climate change knowledge in developing adaptive capacity?

17. Risk of linear thinking: problem > development intervention > solution Won’t work in tackling climate change: already committed to around 1.5 – 2 ⁰ C 2 ⁰ C: between ‘dangerous’ and ‘manageable’ low probability of staying below 2 ⁰ C 3-4 ⁰ C by 2060-2070 is very likely at current rate > 4.5 ⁰ C by 2100 (bleak) !! 4 ⁰ C requires transformative change !! Challenge of incorporating climate change knowledge in development planning

18. Adaptation responses: coping vs transformative change Climate change impacts Adaptive response Autonomous coping (resistance) ResilienceTransformative change Autonomous coping in new state

19.  business-as-usual development, or  incremental efforts to adapt to short-term changes based on past experience i.e. “maladaptation” = adaptation efforts that unintentionally increase vulnerability by: increasing greenhouse gas emissions disproportionately burdening the most vulnerable having high opportunity costs reducing incentives for autonomous adaptation generating path dependency (stranded assets) (Barnett & O’Neill, 2010) Without an understanding of future climate change scenarios, there is a risk of:

20. Downscaled climate projections help tell us: what / when / where (impacts) We need to work together – scientists, beneficiaries, development practitioners, political decision-makers – to figure out: how (adaptation)

21. Ultimate goal, to avoid this…

22. And with the help of these…

23. And some of this…

24. … Achieve this: Poverty reduction and sustainable development

25. Thank you