1. Deterrence Theory Rational Choice Theory Routine Activities Theory
The Rational Offender
Deterrence Theory
Rational Choice Theory
Routine Activities Theory

2. Social Context Classical School Criminology (1750s)
Bentham, Beccaria as “utilitarian philosophers”
Articulated a “general theory” of human behavior
Rebirth of Deterrence
Social Context of U.S. in the 1970s
Murray, Martinson, Economists

3. Base Assumptions about Humans
1. Rational (cost/benefit)
2. Hedonistic
3. Human behavior can be controlled through certain, swift, severe punishment

4. Additional Baggage (assumptions)
General theory (explains all crime)
Equally feel pain
Equally judge opportunity, pleasure

5. Deterrence Theory
Criminal behavior (or crime rates) vary directly with _______ of FORMAL punishment.
Certainty
Severity
Swiftness
MICRO or MACRO?
Specific or General

6. Marginal versus Absolute
Absolute deterrence: the existence of formal punishment reduces crime
Marginal: increases in existing formal punishment reduces crime further

7. General Deterrence (Macro)
What should reduce crime rates?
Evidence:
Severity of Punishment
Death Penalty Research
Certainty of Punishment
Experiments in Certainty (KC patrol)
Swiftness of Punishment?

8. General Deterrence Micro Level
An individuals perceptions of _______ influence their decision to commit crimes.
“Perceptual Deterrence”
Criticism of “objective” = do people really know the clearance rate?
Better: what do you think the clearance rate is?

9. Perceptual Deterrence Research
Initial cross sectional studies:
Perceived risk, severity SR crime
But, what is the causal order??
Deterrence vs. “Experiential” effect
Manipulation of Perceived Risk
Scared Straight

10. Specific Deterrence
A person who commits a crime and is punished is less likely to commit additional crimes.
Swift, Certain, Severe (Marginal)
How test these propositions?

11. Testing Specific Deterrence
Prison vs. Probation?
Perhaps, “time in prison” or “type of prison”
More realistically
Probation vs. Intensive Probation
Probation vs. Boot Camp

12. Deterrence Review: Deals only with formal legal sanctions.
Is this fair?
Empirical Support?
General Deterrence
Macro
Micro (Perceptual)
Specific Deterrence

13. Why little support for deterrence?
We can’t get certain, severe, swift enough
The theory is based on bad assumptions
How rational are we?
Equality of opportunity, pleasure, pain?
“Marginal” deterrence!

14. POLICY IMPLICATIONS
General Deterrence: certain, swift, and severe punishment reduces crime rates, or the probability that an individual will offend
Specific Deterrence: CS&S punishment reduces recidivism
Can’t/Won’t make sentences swift, certain, and severe enough?
Incapacitate