1. Transitions to Democracy How and why they occur

2. Transitional vs. consolidated democracies Transitional democracies -- newly launched or re-democratized liberal democracies Consolidated democracies: –no significant challenges to regime –“the only game in town” (Schmitter & Karl) Some questions: –How do we know a regime is consolidated? –How do regimes become consolidated?

3. How and why do transitions occur? Different scenarios: 1.Voluntary: powers that be decide or facilitate transition 2.Internal pressure/interplay 3.External pressures 4.Regime collapse

4. Voluntary transition: Ruling elite decides to withdraw, facilitates transition: Military regimes: –Military does what it set out to do, exits (Turkey, Ghana) –Military realizes that power is corrupting, time to leave Possible case: Brazil? Governing elites or their successors pack it in

5. Internal pressure/interplay Authoritarian regime slackens, allows space for opposition Opposition forces take advantage – demonstrate, etc Authorities divided about what to do: –Hard-liners v. soft-liners Soft-liners win out…popular pressure continues… –More divisions…. A transition which was never intended occurs

6. Variant Opposition forces take advantage of openings in authoritarian regime’s constitution: Chile under Pinochet: –Constitution provided for referendum on his continuing as president –Citizens use that opportunity to say no –Transition takes place under Pinochet’s constitution

7. Cases: Spain in 1975 Brazil, Argentina & others, early 1980s; Poland in 1989 German Democratic Republic, 1989

8. Poland Ineffective Communist regime Periodic demonstrations rollback price increases Solidarity Trade Unions: Gdansk & elsewhere –1981 strikes and demonstrations –Military rule under Gen Jaruzelski The Roman Catholic Church: sanctuary? 1989 Exit pact –Solidarity and Gen Jaruzelski agree to share power 1991 – definitive transition

9. German Democratic Republic, 1989: How do you get a wall open? Mass demonstrations in Leipzig Exit via Hungary: people vote w. their feet Signals from USSR: Gorbachev’s message Loss of political will Underlying factor: –TV -- people knew how much better it was in the west

10. External pressure: Other countries demand transition: make aid and trade conditional on transition taking place, laws being followed External demands provide opportunities for internal forces: Cases: Mexico, other countries in Latin America

11. Regime collapse in the USSR Gorbachev’s attempts at reform –Glasnost –Perestroika Both attempts to reform CPSU from within Weakening the party removes lynchpin which held USSR together

12. Facilitating factors: Constitutions which are nominally democratic Incentives – –membership in EU for southern and eastern European countries –trade? Failing economic model? Educated citizenry? Restraint among opposition forces? Globalization? –If so, which facets and what difference do they make?

13. Examples of restraint: Pacts among outgoing and incoming forces: –Venezuela 1958 –Spain 1977 –Poland 1989 ‘Safe conduct:’ Agreement not to prosecute members of the outgoing regime

14. An end to transitions? Iran: –Has it ever reached the tipping point? Russia, Ukraine, most ex-USSR: –What you see is what you get? China? Iraq?? Syria??

15. Question: Are there certain circumstances under which transition and consolidation are more likely or less likely? Level of wealth? Level of education? Media access? Failing economy? Or growing economy?