1. Interannual Deforestation Dynamics in Southern Madagascar Humid Forests 2000 to 2005 Jan Dempewolf (1), Ruth DeFries (1), Sandy Andelman (2), Rasolohery Andriambolantsoa (3), Marc Steininger (2) (1) Department of Geography, University of Maryland, United States (2) Conservation International, Washington DC, United States (3) Conservation International, Antananarivo, Madagascar National Workshop on Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Madagascar’s Biodiversity & Livelihoods with Recommendations for Adaptation January 28th-31st, 2008, Antananarivo, Madagascar

4. Deforestation Detected by High Resolution Landsat Images 2000-2005 Data Sources Satellite image: Earthsat, Landsat 7 ETM, Path 159, Row 075, Acquisition Date 2001-04-29; Band combination R-G-B = ETM Bands 5-4-3 Deforested Areas (yellow polygons): Conservation International Center of Applied Biodiversity Science (CI-CABS) and partners, (Harper, et al. 2008; Steininger, et al. 2008; USAID)

5. Global-Scale Deforestation Monitoring MODIS on AQUA MODIS on TERRA Daily MODIS Image Image source: Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL/NASA ) http://onearth.jpl.nasa.gov/ Image source: NASA

6. Yearly MODIS Composite Images MODIS Composite Image 2005 Colors represent amount of green vegetation (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

7. Yearly MODIS Composite Images MODIS Composite Image 2005 Colors represent amount of green vegetation (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

8. Yearly MODIS Composite Images MODIS Composite Image 2005 Colors represent amount of green vegetation (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

9. Annual Deforestation Rates

10. Multivariate ENSO Index Anomaly (MEI): Deviation of average value from April to June from the long-term average since 1950.

11. Annual Deforestation Rates Multivariate ENSO Index Anomaly (MEI): Deviation of average value from April to June from the long-term average since 1950. Precipitation: Minimum value of the 3- month moving average of monthly precipitation (Data source: Famine Early Warning System FEWS).

12. Conclusions Possible link between the El Niño phenomenon and rates of deforestation Hypothesis: Decreased precipitation during El Niño years facilitates destruction of forest through fire, accidentally or opportunistically Some global climate models suggest increased future El Niño frequency: increased threat to protected areas and biodiversity through deforestation Future work: Test hypotheses for mechanisms linking El Niño and deforestation Validation of results using field and high resolution satellite images Determine regions most sensitive to both El Niño – deforestation link and shifting species ranges to focus conservation efforts.

13. Things To Do Increase attention and focus resources on deforestation during El Niño years Provide incentives to locals maintain forest cover Knowledge Gaps Which are the regions a) most sensitive to increased deforestation and b) most important to maintain forest connectivity to accommodate shifting species ranges

14. Thank You! Merci beaucoup !