1. Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union
Lecture 5
Sociology SOCI 20182

2. Fertility measures and patterns

3. Fertility measures Crude Birth Rate, CBR General Fertility Rate, GFR
Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR or Age-specific Birth Rates, ASBR
Marital Fertility Rate, MFR
Total Fertility Rate,  TFR (period and cohort)
Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR
Net Reproduction Rate, NRR
Parity Progression Ratios, PPR

4. Crude Birth Rate, CBR
Number of births in the studied year divided by average size of the population during the year, per 1,000 persons:
CBR = Births / Total Population on July 1, x 1,000 to get per 1,000 persons

5. Crude Birth Rate, Pros and Cons
Easy to calculate
Useful for calculation of the Rate of Natural Increase, RNI:
RNI = CBR (crude birth rate) - CDR (crude death rate)
and the Population Growth Rate, PGR:
PGR = RNI (rate of natural increase) + NMR (net migration rate)
Cons:
Depends not only on individual-level childbearing behavior, but also on age and sex distribution of population.

6. Figure. CBR dynamics in Russia depends on population structure
Crude Birth Rate, Cons
In old societies (with many retirement communities), and counties with male excess (e.g. with military bases), Crude Birth Rate may be exceptionally low, even if young women there have a lot of children
Figure. CBR dynamics in Russia depends on population structure

7. General Fertility Rate, GFR
Number of births in the studied year divided by average size of the WOMEN of CHILDBEARING AGE ( years ) during the year, per 1,000 persons:
GFR = Births / Midyear female population, aged years, x 1,000 to get per 1,000 women

8. General Fertility Rate, Pros and Cons
Characterizes fertility of women better than CBR (crude birth rate)
Empirical observation: in most countries the reproductive female population (aged years) is close to 25% of the total population
Cons:
Too wide age range: women have different birth rates at specific ages within year age interval.
In older societies (with many women aged years), General Fertility Rate may be exceptionally low, even if younger women there have a very high fertility.

9. Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR or Age-specific Birth Rates, ASBR
Similar to crude birth rate but calculated for specific age groups of women of childbearing age:
Age groups: Single-year age groups, or five-year age groups (15-19, 20-24, )
Age range: , or years

10. Age-specific Fertility Rates, Example
Age-specific Fertility Rate, ASFR, for Age Group years =
= Births to women, aged / Number of women aged at midyear of the study period,
x 1,000 to get per 1,000 persons
Rarely, Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR are also calculated for men, when male fertility is studied.

11. Age-specific fertility rate (per 1000 women) in Russia (left) and Ukraine (right)

12. Age-specific fertility (per 1000 women) in Russia (red) and Greece (blue)

13. Age-specific Fertility Rates, Pros and Cons
Basis for all subsequent detailed studies on fertility
Cons:
Detailed data are required, which may be not available for developing countries, war periods, and historic studies.
These data are too detailed to be used to calculate population growth rates, or natural increase rates

14. Marital Fertility Rates, MFR
Fertility rates of married women, either at specific ages (Age-specific Marital Fertility Rates, ASMFR), or the full range of reproductive ages ( , or years) --
General Marital Fertility Rate, GMFR.
Example:
Marital Fertility Rate, MFR =
= Births to married women, aged / Number of married women aged at midyear of the study period,
x 1,000 to get per 1,000 persons

15. Marital Fertility Rates, Pros and Cons
Enables analysis of marital fertility and the pace and timing of childbearing that occurs within formal marriage.
Takes into account situations when many women could not marry, because of lack of men (e.g., male losses in World War II)
Takes into account differences and changes in the age at marriage, and marriage duration (effects of divorces)
Cons:
Requires detailed data on marital status by age, which may be not available for developing countries, and historic studies.
Provides only partial picture for populations with extensive non-marital fertility (cohabitation)

16. Proportion of out-of-marriage births in Russia and Ukraine

17. Total Fertility Rate, TFR
Period total fertility rate, PTFR
The average number of children a women would bear in her life if she experiences the age-specific fertility rates prevailing at the study period.
Total Fertility Rate, TFR, for a given year is calculated by summing the age-specific fertility rates for that year over the range of reproductive ages.

18. TFR changes over time, Russia

19. TFR changes over time Russia, USA, Estonia

20. TFR changes over time (some FSU countries)

21. Recent changes in TFR Russian and Ukraine

22. Regional differences in TFR, Russia

23. TFR in European countries

24. Period total fertility rate, Pros and Cons
Helps to determine whether population will decline (TFR < 2.1), be close to stationary (near zero or slow population growth at TFR = ), or rapidly growing (TFR > 3).
Empirically, the relationship between the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) looks like:
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) of 50 per 1,000 corresponds to Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of about 7 children per women
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) of 15 per 1,000 corresponds to Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of about 2 children per women
Cons:
Period Total Fertility Rate describes fertility observed during a short study period (usually one year period). Because fertility changes over time, the period TFR is a poor measure of the completed fertility of older women, and a poor predictor of the anticipated completed fertility of younger women (at early stages of their reproductive "career").

25. Cohort Total Fertility Rate, CTFR
The average number of children a women bears in her life, for women born in a specific time period (specific year, or five-year birth period, named a birth cohort).
Cohort Total Fertility Rate, CTFR, for a given birth cohort is calculated by summing the actual age-specific fertility rates over the range of reproductive ages for women born in a specific time period.

26. Period TFR for hypothetical cohorts (red) and Cohort TFR for real cohorts (blue) in Russia

27. Cohort Total Fertility Rate, Pros and Cons
Allows a precise description of the actual childbearing experience of specific birth cohorts of women
Superior to census and survey questions on "children ever born", because it does not omit the childbearing experience of women who died before the time of the census or survey.
Cons:
Requires detailed historical data on birth rates by age of mothers born in specific years, which may be not available for developing countries.
Can be calculated only at the conclusion of a cohort's childbearing years (for women who have passed the 50-year mark). Therefore it can not be calculated for those women who were born after year 1958.
Mostly historical significance, little relevance to current fertility situation

28. Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR (period)
The average number of DAUGHTERS a women would bear in her life if she experiences the age-specific fertility rates (for daughters) prevailing at the study period.
Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR, in most circumstances equals roughly a half of the Total Fertility Rate, TFR
(slightly less than a half, because boys are somewhat more prevalent at birth than girls)
Exception:
China "One Child" policy leads to a distortion of sex ratio at birth in favor of boys, leading to a lower Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR.

29. Gross Reproduction Rate, Pros and Cons
Helps to aggregate age-specific fertility rates into one simple measure: mean number of daughters expected per one woman.
Sensitive indicator on how future fertility could be affected by a distortion of sex ratio at birth (e.g., China).
Cons:
Adds little information to the Total Fertility Rate, TFR
Could be misleading, because changes in the timing of births do not necessarily change the total number of life-time births per woman

30. Net Reproduction Rate, NRR (period)
The average number of DAUGHTERS a women would bear in her life if she experiences the age-specific fertility rates (for daughters) prevailing at the study period, AND if her daughters experienced the prevailing rates of mortality.
If the age schedules of both fertility and mortality remain constant, the Net Reproduction Rate would be a measure of generational REPLACEMENT.
Examples:
NRR = next generation will be 10% larger than the present generation (growth)
NRR = next generation will be the same as the present generation (replacement level)
NRR = next generation will be 10% smaller than the present generation (depopulation)

31. NRR for Armenia, Russia and Uzbekistan

32. NRR for Russia, USA and Estonia

33. NRR for Russia (with latest data)

34. Net Reproduction Rate, Pros and Cons
Taking into account both fertility and survival in getting one indicator of reproductivity of a population
Cons:
Requires detailed data on fertility and survival of women, up to age 50 years
Does not take into account that women born in different years may have different fertility and survival

35. Parity Progression Ratios, PPR (cohort)
A proportion of women of a given "parity" (number of live births), who go on to have at least one ADDITIONAL child during the course of their remaining childbearing years.
This is a probability of progressing from parity X to all higher parities (X + 1, X + 2, etc). PPR < 1.0

36. Parity Progression Ratio, formula

37. Parity Progression Ratio, Pros and Cons
Useful for studies of reproduction in specific birth cohorts of women
Helps to detect and estimate family planning and birth control becoming more strict at specific higher parities (in developed countries often at parity 2)
Cons:
Could be studied only for older women (50+ years) who completed their childbearing years
Requires detailed data on children ever born from a census or survey

38. Demographic Transition
A belief that all countries will eventually follow the same scenario: a transition from high mortality and fertility rates to low mortality and fertility rates (both with relatively slow population growth rate).
A state of low mortality and high fertility (with explosive population growth) is believed to be a historically "short" transitional state, caused by the time lag between mortality decline and a subsequent fertility decline.

39. Demographic Transition (schema)
High Fertility
High Mortality
High Fertility
Low Mortality
Low Fertility
Low Mortality

40. Why should fertility decline?
Three preconditions should coexist: "ready, willing, able“ (A. Coale, 1973)
"Ready: Fertility must be within the calculus of conscious choice.“ The idea of fertility regulation should become culturally acceptable
"Willing: Reduced fertility must be advantageous“ Perceived gains to motivate couples to have fewer children
"Able: Effective techniques of fertility reduction must be available“ Dissemination of knowledge and cheap/effective contraceptive supplies

41. Demographic transition in Russia
At the beginning of the 20th century Russia had very high but not very efficient fertility - many children did not survive to adult ages because of high child mortality
However difference between children born and children survived to adult ages became small for cohorts of mothers born after 1925 (result of declining infant mortality)

42. Number of children surviving to different ages per woman, Russia

43. Women were involved more in industrial labor
Down with kitchen slavery!

44. Rapid decline of fertility after bolshevik revolution
Slogan: Liberated woman – Build Socialism!
After the revolution bolshevik government allowed abortions
Sex was considered a natural need (compared to ‘glass of water’)

45. Number of children per woman in Russia and developed countries
Maternal birth cohort

46. Stalin tried to improve situation with fertility but it was too late
1936 – Stalin’s government banned abortions; this measure provided a short-lived increase of births
Introduced a medal “mother-hero”

47. The second demographic transition
In the late 1980s and early 1990s fertility in Russia and other FSU countries rapidly declined
This decline was accompanied by increase of mortality (particularly at working ages)
These observations allowed some researchers to talk about the second demographic transition

48. Changes in fertility were partially caused by structural changes
Number of births (million)
Red – number of births
Blue – the same curve shifted by 26 years earlier (superposition of mothers’ and daughters’ generations)

49. Existing explanations of fertility drop during the 1990s
Economic crisis (uncertainty about the future and increasing the costs of child rearing)
Socio-cultural change (transition towards more western practices of family formation and childbearing)
Soviet pronatalist policies in the early 1980s (benefits for women giving birth to the 3rd child, 3-year paid maternity leave) – accelerated births which otherwise would happen later

50. Recent Trends
Proportion of non-marital births is increasing – general tendency (12% in 1985 vs 29% in 2001 in Russia)
Maternal age is increasing – general tendency
However the age of birth for the first child remains low – no evidence of postponing births

51. Proportion of non-marital births (%) in Kyrgyzstan by age and year

52. Growth of non-marital births (%) in Russia and Ukraine

53. Non-marital fertility in Russia (percent of births)

54. Mean age of mother

55. Mean age of mother in Russia and Ukraine

56. Fertility for women of different ages (age-specific birth rates)

57. Number of children (per woman) needed for replacement in Russia
Blue – actual number
Red – needed after accounting for mortality of mothers’ generation
Pink – needed after accounting for mortality of daughters’ generation
Maternal birth cohort

58. Population Momentum (Momentum of Population Growth)
A tendency for population growth rates to lag behind changes in age-specific fertility and mortality rates. Momentum operates through the population age distribution.

59. Population Momentum Examples
Population that has been growing rapidly for a long time, acquires a young age distribution (with many people in reproductive ages) that will result in positive population growth for many decades, even if age-specific fertility and mortality rates imply zero population growth or even depopulation in the very long run.
Opposite example:
Too old societies with most people being at post-reproductive ages will experience depopulation, even if age-specific fertility and mortality rates imply population growth in the very long run.