1. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 1 - Verification of the LM at IMGW Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska, Andrzej Mazur Institute of Meteorology and Water Management

2. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 2 - Contents: Verification of surface parameters using 56 SYNOP stations Verification of precipitation using 308 rain gauges Verification of upper-air parameters using 3 TEMP stations.

3. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 3 - Verification of surface parameters using 56 SYNOP stations Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Poland

4. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 4 - The results of verification surface continuous parameters from January 2005 to June 2005 will be presented. Following meteorological elements were analysed: 2m temperature, 2m dew point temperature, sea level pressure, 10m wind speed. The meteorological variables forecasted by the model were compared with synoptic data from 56 Polish synoptic stations. Mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated using 12 forecast range (every 6 hours) for a 72 hour forecast starting at 00 UTC. The error estimators were calculated for all stations and for the whole country area.

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13. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 13 - 1. The 2 m temperature: A monthly and seasonal variation for the scores of temperature is observed. The mean error is negative in the winter and positive in spring and the summer. In the summer we observed the large diurnal amplitude of mean error and amplitude of RMSE with maximum value during a day. 2. The dew point temperature: The monthly variation of mean error is observed.The bias is negative in January, positive in the summer and diurnal amplitude in the spring. The RMSE increased with the forecast time. Conclusions

14. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 14 - 3. The sea level pressure: The RMSE increased with the forecast time. The error is smaller in the summer and higher in the winter. The ME is quite smooth (about zero in the winter and negative in the summer). 4. The 10 m wind speed: The ME is mostly positive and increases with the forecast time. The RMSE is quite smooth, bigger in the winter than the summer (with daily amplitude in the summer). Conclusions

15. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 15 - Verification of precipitation using 308 rain gauges Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Poland

16. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 16 - The results of verification of 24-h accumulated precipitation from January 2004 to June 2005 are presented below. For precipitation we calculated indices from the contingency table for 24-h accumulated forecast data and data from 308 rain gauge stations for 3 day forecast range (1-day, 2-day, 3-day). For verification of precipitation following thresholds of 0.5, 1, 2.5, 5, 10, 20, 25, 30 mm were used. For each threshold the following scores were calculated: FBI (Frequency bias index), POD (Probability of detection of event), PON (Probability of detection of non-event), FAR (False alarm rate), TSS (True skill statistics), HSS (Heidke skill score), ETS (Equitable skill score).

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18. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 18 - % POD PON FAR HSS ETS 0.512.5510152025 0 20 40 60 80 100 % THRESHOLDS [mm] I day II day III day

19. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 19 - % POD PON FAR HSS ETS 0.512.551015202530 0 20 40 60 80 100 % THRESHOLDS [mm] I day II day III day

20. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 20 - FREQUENCY BIAS INDEX, JANUARY - DECEMBER 2004 THRESHOLD 10 [mm] FBI MONTHS I day II day III day

21. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 21 - FREQUENCY BIAS INDEX, JANUARY - JUNE 2005 JANFEBMARCHAPRILMAYJUNE 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 FBI THRESHOLD 0.5 [ mm] JANFEBMARCHAPRILMAYJUNE 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 FBI MONTHS THRESHOLD 10 [ mm] I day II day III day

22. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 22 - % MONTHS INDICES FOR 24h ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION, JANUARY - DECEMBER 2004

23. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 23 - % MONTHS I day II day III day INDICES FOR 24h ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION, JANUARY - DECEMBER 2004

24. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 24 - JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUN 0 20 40 60 80 100 % MONTHS I day II day III day INDICES FOR 24h ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION, JANUARY - JUNE 2005

25. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 25 - INDICES FOR 24h ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION, JANUARY - JUNE 2005

26. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 26 - 1. The model overestimates the amount of precipitation. 2. The precipitation forecast quality in the period from January to June in 2005 are better than in 2004. 3. The plots of indices for 24-h accumulated precipitation for threshold 0.5 mm in 2005 show smaller variability than in 2004. 4. The quality of the forecast does not deteriorate significantly in subsequent days of the forecast. Conclusions

27. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 27 - Verification of upper-air parameters using 3 TEMP stations. Andrzej Mazur Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Poland

28. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 28 - Monthly mean ME/RMSE at standard pressure levels (1000, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 250 and 200 hPa)... Subject: of height, temperature, wind velocity and relative humidity... at three Polish upper-air stations: Leba, Legionowo, Wroclaw

29. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 29 - Temperature ME (observed-predicted) - Leba station Left - year 2003Right - year 2004 Forecast: +12 hours Temperature ME (observed-predicted) - Legionowo stationTemperature ME (observed-predicted) - Wroclaw station

30. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 30 - Wind speed ME (observed-predicted) - Leba station Left - year 2003Right - year 2004 Forecast: +12 hours Wind speed ME (observed-predicted) - Legionowo stationWind speed ME (observed-predicted) - Wroclaw station

31. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 31 - Standard level height ME (observed-predicted) - Leba station Left - year 2003Right - year 2004 Forecast: +12 hours Forecast: +24 hoursForecast: +36 hoursForecast: +48 hoursForecast: +60 hours

32. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 32 - Relative humidity ME (observed-predicted) - Leba station Left - year 2003Right - year 2004 Forecast: +12 hours Forecast: +24 hoursForecast: +36 hoursForecast: +48 hoursForecast: +60 hours

33. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 33 - Forecasts are “surprisingly” good as far as temperature and wind speed are concerned (ME about ±1° and ±1m/s, respectively). Model still seems to be “too wet” (ME about 30%, in extreme case - relative error ~50%). However, this looks like it improved, comparing results for 2003 with these for 2004 The quality of forecast - which is naturally expected tendency - decreases monotonously with time - especially for relative humidity. For other parameters this tendency is not so clearly seen. CONCLUSIONS

34. COSMO General Meeting Zurich, 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland- 34 - THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION