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Student Loan and Consumer Debt Markets Outstanding

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Presentation on theme: "Student Loan and Consumer Debt Markets Outstanding"— Presentation transcript:

0 A View from the Industry: Discussing the Opportunities in Financing Student Loans
Private Loans - Steve Fernald, Executive Director, Morgan Stanley Refinance Loans - Robert Lavet, General Counsel SoFi Direct Lending Opportunities - Judd Deppisch, Director BMO Capital Market (Presentation Unauthorized to be posted by NCHER)

1 Student Loan and Consumer Debt Markets Outstanding
Student Loans Outstanding Total Student Loan Debt Size - $1,325 billion Consumer Debt Market Size by Type Total Consumer Loan Debt Size - $3,322 billion Source Department of Education, Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley Source Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Does not include mortgages 2

2 Annual Student Loan Originations and Securitizations
EFC May 2015 Slides.pptx\29 MAY 2015\2:16 PM\2 Annual Student Loan Originations and Securitizations Student Loan Originations Since FY 1995 $ Bn Source CollegeBoard “Trends in Student Aid 2014” Student Loan ABS Issuance Since 1993 $ Bn Source SIFMA, IFR Markets, Morgan Stanley Student Loan Database 3

3 Private Credit Student Loan Financing Market
2014 For Profit Private Student Loan Issuers(1) Total: $2,739 2015YTD For Profit Private Student Loan Issuers(1) Total: $1,707 ($ MM) ($ MM) 2014 Non-Profit Private Student Loan Issuers(1) Total: $693 2015YTD Non-Profit Private Student Loan Issuers(1) Total: $444 ($ MM) ($ MM) Notes Numbers may not total due to rounding. Sallie Mae split in April 2014 into Navient and Sallie Mae Bank 4

4 Recent For Profit Private Credit Transactions
Notes Morgan Stanley lead managed transactions ReFi loans are loans awarded to graduates to refinance their existing federal private loans. In-school loans are awarded to borrowers who are in school when receiving the loan 5

5 Non-Profit Private Credit Transactions
Notes Weighted averages shown are based upon the par amounts by maturity date for each issuer’s capital structure, excluding the effects of early redemptions or prepayments 6

6 Private Credit Investor Overview
EFC May 2015 Slides.pptx\29 MAY 2015\2:16 PM\5 Private Credit Investor Overview Hypothetical Private Credit Taxable Investor Participation Investor Type Hypothetical Private Credit Tax-Exempt Investor Participation Investor Type Source Morgan Stanley Source Morgan Stanley 7

7 10-Year Treasury Auction Result
Competing with PLUS: Rate Basis Considerations Issuer Spread FDLP PLUS Spread 10Y Treasury Forward Curve(1) Rate (%) Expected 10-Year Treasury Auction 6.84% 10-Year Treasury Auction Result Current: 2.24% Loan Spread 4.60% Issuer Loan Spread Current: 2.00% 5.55% MMD Current: 2.15% Issuer Credit Spread Current: 1.40% Q2 2016: 2.83% Q2 2016: 2.75% Q1 2016: 2.65% Q4 2015: 2.50% Q1 2016: 2.55% Q3 2015: 2.32% MMD/Treasury Basis Histogram(2) 10-Year history at daily close Q4 2015: 2.40% Frequency (days) 10Y Average: 30 bps Q3 2015: 2.20% 10Y Treasury – 10Y MMD (bps) Source Morgan Stanley Source Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Notes As of May 2015 The -80bps cohort includes all data points below -80bps (data points from October 2008 to March 2009) 8

8 Issuer Historical Implied Performance Benchmark
Issuer benchmarking analysis implies effective competition with FDLP PLUS Spread analysis assumptions: 10Y assets and liabilities Cost of funds (“COF”) is the current Issuer spread to MMD(2) Loans rates based on historical average of COF bps with ±50 bp margin Issuers compete with the hypothetical FDLP PLUS rate Under this framework, the two main risks faced by the Issuer’s student loan program are: Credit risk (spread to MMD): credit spreads may widen due to investor attitudes MMD/Treasury basis risk: spreads between Issuer’s COF and the PLUS rate may decrease if Treasury rates fall relative to MMD, reducing Issuer’s ability to compete with the PLUS rate Since 2008, the long-term relationship between MMD and Treasuries has occasionally dislocated, with MMD setting higher than Treasury rates Treasury, MMD, Hypothetical Historical FDLP PLUS(1) and Issuer Funding and Loan Rates(2) 10-Year History for Hypothetical 10-Year Tenor Rate (%) +/- 50 bps PLUS Spread to 10Y UST: 4.60% Loan Spread to COF: 2.00% COF Spread to MMD: 1.40% Source Morgan Stanley Student Loan Banking, Morgan Stanley Research Notes Based on the lesser of (i) the high yield of the last 10-Year Treasury auction prior to June 1 of the respective year plus 4.60% and (ii) 10.5%, effective July 1 of the respective year through June 30 of the following year Cost of funds based on Issuer’s financing scale 9

9 Underwriting Trends – PLUS Loan and Private Lenders
EFC May 2015 Slides.pptx\29 MAY 2015\2:16 PM\4 Underwriting Trends – PLUS Loan and Private Lenders Source: Sallie Mae web portal; Massachusetts Educational Financing Authority, Rhode Island Student Loan Authority and Connecticut Higher Education Supplemental Loan Authority Offering Statements; Department of Education; Past, Current and Recently Passed PLUS standards taken from Federal Register on 12/10/2014 at 10

10 SLM Private Education Loan Underwriting Criteria
NYS_Refi_Presentation_v5.pptx\24 SEP 2014\6:41 PM\32 SLM Private Education Loan Underwriting Criteria Source: Sallie Mae ASF Presentation 2014 11

11 Private Loan Performance by Debt Burden & Income
NY Presentation v8.pptx\30 JUN 2014\1:47 AM\16 Private Loan Performance by Debt Burden & Income Default Rate by Debt-to-Income Ratio Default Rate (%) Debt-to-Income Ratio Default Rate by Income Default Rate (%) Default Rate by Discretionary Income Default Rate (%) Income ($000) Discretionary Income ($000) Source: Mark Kantrowitz, “Relationship of Default Rates to Debt and Income.” 12

12 New Market: Student Loan Refinancing
Refinancing mechanics Refinance lender disburses loan proceeds directly to borrower’s existing loan holders to pay off balance No cash out to borrower Refinance loan preserves 523(c)(8) bankruptcy non-dischargeability Some lenders only refinance private student loans SoFi and several other lenders refinance federal and private student loans Challenges Customer acquisition: cannot rely on school Borrowers may have multiple loans and multiple servicers Difficulties capturing all information from borrower Who benefits from refinancing Graduates with jobs and good credit can reduce rate Borrowers who need flexibility of government repayment options or who are facing financial hardship generally should not refinance

13 About SoFi Social Finance, Inc. (SoFi) launched in 2011 to offer an innovative approach to the student loan market SoFi refinances federal and private student loans of successful young professionals ReFi borrowers have already achieved the two most credit-enhancing accomplishments: degree completion and employment Successfully originated over $2B in loans to date Demonstrated ability to acquire high quality student loan borrowers Addressable market of $80B outstanding, with $20B originated annually Portfolio performing better than anticipated Rapid growth: $250M funded in 2013 $1.2B funded in 2014 Expect $2.4B volume in 2015 New product launches to core customer base, including mortgage product and unsecured personal loan

14 Fastest Growing Marketplace Lender

15 Prime Consumer Credit in a Qualified Education Loan1
Education: Advanced degree graduates of Northwestern, Duke, Michigan, Penn, Chicago, etc. Employment: Employed at top companies like McKinsey, Deloitte, Skadden, Apple, Morgan Stanley, Kirkland & Ellis, etc. Salary: Pre-bonus income of $141K Age: 33 years old Credit: Credit Score of 758 Debt Service: Significant free cash flow (after taxes and obligations) Seasoning: 22 months into student loan repayment Status: More than 99% in full repayment Location: 71% in 25 large U.S. urban areas 1. Average statistics for loans funded by SoFi as of December 31, 2013.

16 Diverse Funding Sources
Significant traction from investors, lenders and rating agencies Equity Approx. $440M in equity raised Securitization Expect to conclude 5th Securitization in May Recent transactions rated by Moody’s, S&P and DBRS Bank Participations Whole Loan Sales Warehouse Lines


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