1. 19-8-2015 Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 Enhancing Transparency in Reporting the Effects of Policies and Measures Merrilee Bonney Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment, Netherlands

2. Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 2 Effects: of what on what? Which effects? Emission reductions Costs (for whom?) Which policy or policies? Measures versus instruments Status of instruments Effects relative to what reference situation? Socio-economic assumptions Assumptions about other policies

3. Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 3 Estimating emission reduction impacts: measures versus instruments Effect of measure depends on Reference technique or situation Penetration Conversion factors (primary energy saved) Emission factors Effectiveness of policy instruments depends on Free-rider effects (corrected for attention effect) Rebound effects Baumol effects

4. Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 4 Estimating emission reduction impacts: individual instruments versus clusters of instruments? more wind power BarrierMeasureInstrument investment cost siting issues relative kwh price agreements tax breaks subsidy non-transparencyconsumer info

5. Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 5 Reporting on the effect of a particular policy instrument emission reduction effect policy at issue other policies autonomous developments: economic demographic technologic

6. Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 6 Reporting on the total effect of policies: the importance of the reference scenario (1) NC3: effect of (additional) policies since 1999 (in NCPIP) Reference: emissions in 2010 without instruments announced in NCPIP, but with instruments introduced between 1990 and 1998 Effect reported in NC3

7. Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 7 Reporting on the total effect of policies: the importance of the reference scenario (2) NC4: effect of all policies since 1990 Reference: emissions in 2010 without instruments introduced after 1990 Effect to be reported in NC4

8. Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 8 Estimating Cost and Cost Effectiveness: policy instruments versus emission reduction measures QuestionCost MethodEmission reduction How cost effective is measure for target group? Which measures most attractive from national viewpoint? How efficient is policy instrument? How much does gov’t spend on instrument? financial costs national costs government total due to policy instrument --

9. Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 9 Methods for estimating costs Financial Costs for final users (of measures) Market energy prices Prevailing interest rates Including subsidies and taxes National costs for the Netherlands (of measures) Shadow prices for energy Social discount rate Excluding taxes and subsidies Government costs (of policy instruments) Outlays for staffing, research, subsidies; foregone revenues of tax breaks

10. Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 10 Issues for NC4 Transparency regarding status of policies Costs, non-mitigation benefits, how policies interact with other policies Additional requirements based on Marrakech Accords Supplementarity Sustainable development IMO/ICAO Minimize adverse impacts Use of Kyoto mechanisms Comparability with NC3