1. Forward Studies Riga September, 2003 EUROPEAN FORESIGHT TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

2. Presentation by Dr. Arturs Puga International conference at the Banking Institution of Higher Education Riga, September 11, 2003 CONDITIONS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: NEW CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

3. CONTENT 1. Foresight as a method and culture for sustainable development 2. Foresight research activities dealing with Knowledge Society Business Sustainability

4. Introduction ”Foresight is a key to survival. Managers able to perceive trends and week signals where others only see noise or chaos can capitalize on the changing nature of the market to reposition their firms before new entrants become a serious threat...Today’s corporations can seize the opportunity for sustainable development.” Hart, Stuart and Milstein, Mark. “Global Sustainability and the Creative Destruction of Industries.” Sloan Management Review. (Fall 1999): 24. IT AND SUSTAINABILITY: ENABLING THE FUTURE TNS and Silicon Walley Toxics Coalition, January 2003

5. PRIORITIES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Poverty eradication Sustainable management and conservation of natural resources Making globalisation work for sustainable development Improving governance at all levels Financing for sustainable development Education, science and technology for decision making

6. Culture of the 21st century Foresight constitutes a systematic attempt to observe the long-term future of science, technology, society, the economy and their mutual interactions in order to generate knowledge with which to effect social, economic and environmental improvements based on well founded projections. However, it is not enough to establish a clear and efficient technology to conduct foresight. It is also vitally important to ensure that foresight outcomes are taken into consideration in policy debates and decision making.

7. Culture for knowledge society and sustainable development The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities. 13–14 May 2002 Seville conference proceedings. European Commission, 2002. p. 1. http://www.jrc.es/home/publications/publicatio ns.html

8. Culture creating a new community We can identify the set of ideas, beliefs, and ways of behaviour of a ‘particular foresight community’ (individuals as well as organisations) recognised on the European level alongside an emergence of the European Research Area (ERA) meeting objectives of the Lisbon strategy. Ioannina Conference Manifesto for Foresight Cooperation in an Enlarged European Research and Innovation Area. 15–16 May 2003, Ioannina, Greece. http://medlab.cs.uoi.gr/conf2003/forum_see.asp http://medlab.cs.uoi.gr/conf2003/forum_see.asp

9. Connections and interdependence The Lisbon strategy The Knowledge-based society Sustainable development Foresight as a method, process and culture for research, actions and change

10. 1) The Development of Information Societies based on the large-scale diffusion and utilization of new IT, which have allowed for unprecedent capabilities in capturing, procession, storing and communicating data & information. Other important developments: GLOBALIZATION 2) The increasing importance of innovation (especially technological but also organizational) as an element of corporative and national competiveness, and in strategies to increase efficiency and effectiveness of organizations of all types. CHANGES in in organizations in all sectors 3)The development of Service Economies in which the bulk of economic activity, employment and output is taking place in service sectors of economy, in which service is an important management principle in organizations in all sectors, and where specilized services (especially Knowledge-Intensive Business Services) are providing critical inputs to organizations in all sectors DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURES CULTURAL PRACTISES 4) Knowledge management arises as a specific issue, as organisations seek to apply formal techniques and information systems to help them make more effective use of their data resources (e.g. data mining), information assets (e.g. Enterprise Resource System) and expertise (e.g. human resource development, groupware and collaborative systems). ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS

11. European Knowledge Society Foresight - a Handbook of Methodology November 2002 PREST and FFRC for the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions

12. LEARNING SPACE HANDBOOK OF KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY FORESIGHT http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/euforia/handbook.htm http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/euforia/documents/EFL_Handbook_April_2003.pdf http://www.wbcsd.ch/DocRoot/LUWbCOQ8l1DFtZv5WB0U/20021118_sdmap.pdf SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (a wiring diagram of the global challenges)

13. Foresight as a Process Renewal Pre- Foresight Recruitment Generation Action

14. Experts Panels Intelligence Gathering Knowledge Fusing Visioning Targeting Synthesis Dissemination Implementation Stakeholders Scoping Foresight as a Process: methods Renewal PreForesight RecruitmentGeneration Action Monitoring Management Evaluation

15. Foresight Informing and legitimising action, establishing preparedness Sharing visions. Exchanging knowledge, mutual understanding... Identifying indicators and determining goals, evaluation processes and mechanisms Foresight’s triple base Strategic action plans Planning tools and techniques, priority setting, etc. Futures reports, scenarios, forecasts and visions Futures methods, forecasting techniques, modelling & visionary approaches, etc. Broadening participation, establishing and reinforcing networks Networking tools and techniques, groupwork and facilitation, survey approaches, etc. Fore- sight Futures Plan- ning Network- ing

16. FROM FUTURE STUDIES TO FORESIGHT: “The important changes in future studies, such as a shift from emphasis on predictive approaches to more exploratory studies, from one-off studies to more continual iterations of envisioning future challenges and opportunities, from expert-only to users involvement in the process of study—have facilitated an increasing value of foresight activities. In systematic, participatory process foresight practitioners set complementary goals for informing present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions.” Practical Guide to Regional Foresight. FOREN project. European Commission, December 2001. http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/Research/foren.htm http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/Research/foren.htm

17. The EUROFORE datebase freely accessible http://les.man.ac.uk/eurofore/ In the countries of EU hundreds, sometimes thousands of people are involved in foresight exercises, and are drawn from a wide variety of backgrounds. EUROFORE datebase of mapped foresight exercises, organisations and individuals is useful for learning as well as monitoring.

18. A SOCIETY TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT LEARNING AND SHAPING processes via foresight activities (networking and online)

19. Starting Foresight The establishment the Forward Unit could provide a subject to be a possible repository of knowledge and agent for foresight training and advice. It may organize small-scale foresight exercises or provide training activities for particular sets of users. The Unit can support network activities, organise meetings of stakeholders, in the long run “to maintain Foresight activities in a given community.”

20. Forward Studies, LUS, Riga studies of LATVIAN SOCIETY (system aspects, issues, trends,challenges, interrelations, options) THE KNOWLEDGE-BASED SOCIETIES OF EUROPE FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES for SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

21. CURRENT RESEARCH SOCIAL CHALLENGES FACING LATVIA: PROBLEMS OF IDENTIFICATION a part of the BCSS project “Latvia in Europe: Visions for future” 2002-2004 “LATVIA TOWARDS KNOWLEDGE SOCIETIES OF EUROPE: NEW OPTIONS FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND EMPLOYMENT ACHIEVING THE GOALS OF THE LISBON STRATEGY” the FORWARD STUDIES’ project 2003-2005

22. CURRENT RESEARCH International foresight “THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESSES” EUFORIA, PREST, online, 2003

23. OUTPUTS European citizens are interested in the cooperation achieving objectives of creating the identifiable style for the knowledge-based economy. A time has come to multiply efforts of stakeholders from various countries and the EU’s bodies to work out a research consortium dealing with comparative studies aimed at theory, methods and applied research (including foresight activities) on the knowledge-based society as well as sustainable development in the New Member States.

24. CONCLUSIONS FOR THE MEDIUM-TERM FUTURE knowledge management system thinking lifelong learning e-learning adaptation of Latvian language for the knowledge society

25. CONCLUSIONS FOR THE MEDIUM-TERM FUTURE provide both unexplored and critical challenges facing Latvia, and to set the objectives to meet them adequately is a task embedded in all national system’s aspects for sustainable development.

26. Building the Information Society in Candidate Countries? A prospective analysis on potential trajectories to realise the Lisbon goals (IPTS, Joint Research Centre DG, European Commission, June 2003). The statement in the prologue: ‘ The Information Society in Candidate Countries has received up till now little or no academic attention. ‘ WHY ???

27. Due to accelerated social and technological change, a new culture of future-oriented thinking in society is needed. Decision makers need to acquire new skills in the face of declining role of traditional value systems and the erosion of traditional interest groups combined with calls for more accountability and accelerated technological change. WHY FORESIGHT ? !

28. Main objectives of the EU’s FP6 Thematic Priority 7 ‘Citizens and Governance in a Knowledge based society’. ‘Providing a sound scientific base for the management of the transition towards a European knowledge based society, conditioned by national, regional and local policies and by decision making by individual citizens, families and other societal units.’ * The indicative budget allocated for - 225 million EUR http://www.cordis.lu/citizens/citizens.htm http://www.cordis.lu/citizens/home.html

29. The added value of European foresight actions includes: strengthening the strategic dimension of the European Research Area contributing to the achievement of the Lisbon Objectives contributing structurally to European integration (enlargement) contributing to the design of coherent S&T policies in Europe

30. The added value of European foresight actions includes: contributing to the creation and functioning of knowledge-based economies at different governance levels in Europe facilitating the integration of science and technology into society contributing to the reform of European Governance by information exchange, awareness rising and networking

31. The added value of European foresight actions includes: relating national foresight activities and increasing synergies providing methodological expertise An outline Guide to opportunities offered by the Sixth European Community Research Framework Programme for supporting co-operation in the field of foresight in Europe. Working document. European Commission, 2002.

32. Challenge for strategies of sustainable development 7 steps for managing en enterprise according to sustainable development (Business strategies, IISD ) http://www.bsdglobal.com/pdf/business_strategy.pdf

33. http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/newsletter.htm

34. The end of presentation