1. Making Estimation Easier and Better Keith Richards KRC www.agilekrc.com

2. Presentation Structure Introductions The basics Estimating early on A few well known techniques Relativity Getting good Further information / Next steps Close and questions.

3. Introductions KRC is a pioneering training and consultancy company Specialising in all things Agile Focusing on improving Agile capability at scale Keith Richards o 15 years experience in agile methods o Closely analysed many of today’s estimation techniques o Author of ‘Agile Project Management’ (TSO) o Voted ‘Most Valuable Agile Player’ UK Agile Awards 2011.

4. Estimation – two facts that we all need to know Fact One: Estimation is difficult! Fact Two: Estimation is difficult because what you are doing is difficult!

5. What is an estimate? An educated guess, a prediction Surprisingly contains only a few variables  size  complexity  skill level  quality ...but not much more really.

6. When to estimate? First things first – is this a project or a product environment? Projects evolve and have high levels of uncertainty early on Products evolve with low levels of uncertainty throughout.

7. The Shard how high do you think it is in metres?

8. Early project estimation Instinct is good...but back it up Base it on evidence Use a simple algorithm Document the assumptions.

9. Honest estimates or hostage culture? How does your organisation REALLY go about estimation? Is it a game? e.g. ‘Think of a number and double it!’ If so, this is very damaging Use a confidence factor and get everyone signed up to it  use a range  try the 50% / 90% rule  justify things and don’t get emotional.

10. How long does it take to do a jigsaw? Estimates in seconds: 45 36 60 20 40 38 90 48 90

11. Some techniques – some good, some not so good! Function Points / Use Case Points Wideband Delphi (Story) Points, T-shirt sizing and Planning Poker Top-down, Bottom-up Team estimation (‘wisdom of crowds’) Estimation ‘en masse’.

12. Relativity – a big help People are good at this Do this before you start thinking about how long or how much T-shirt sizing is good but go carefully: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 Fibonacci – very popular but it’s not quite right!...and hardly anyone realises this! Could this be costing billions?

13. Fibonacci – useful but flawed 61.8 The Golden Ratio!

14. Get nerdy; be an Anorak! Go for it – you will look cool eventually Build your algorithm, keep metrics, save the assumptions Have your own little book of wisdom Calibrate and Validate Be ‘empirical’  Try and build lifecycle ratios  Try timestamping – very simple, very effective.

15. In summary Don’t forget an estimate is only an estimate. The better you are at it, the better you will be at hitting deadlines and protecting quality.

16. Further Information / Next Steps To download your copy of the ‘krcbonacci’ guidelines please visit: http://agilekrc.com then click on “resources” then “downloads”http://agilekrc.com To download a course information sheet on our one day training course in Estimation please visit: http://agilekrc.com then click on “services” then “in-house training” http://agilekrc.com KRC offers accredited public courses, in-house training and coaching Would you like an agile assessment to map out your agile journey?

17. Making Estimation Easier and Better Thank you! k.richards@agilekrc.com c.robinson@agilekrc.com www.agilekrc.com