1. Political Economy After the Crisis Michael Woolcock Week 2 The Past and Future of Economic Growth February 6, 2014

2. Overview Prelude: Where you sit shapes where you stand Economic growth in the past (the ‘long run’) – Eight ‘stylized facts’, some initial principles – What don’t we know that we need to know? Not just for ‘policy’, but for implementation? – Where might we search for answers? The future of economic growth – Integrating diverse evidence, coherent theory, capability for implementation, legitimacy

3. Prelude Different types of problems… – require different types of solutions, which require different types of strategies for assessing effectiveness – attract (‘select for’) different kinds of people, who in turn are trained, socialized, hired, assessed by people like them creating reasonable – and sometimes unreasonable – differences. E.g., – Academics vs practitioners vs ‘policymakers’ – Heart surgeons vs cardiologists – Debates over rise/fall of ‘global poverty’ (Kanbur 2001) – Sachs vs Easterly on effectiveness of ‘foreign aid’ (ongoing!)

4. Prelude Different types of problems… – require different types of solutions, which require different types of strategies for assessing effectiveness – attract (‘select for’) different kinds of people, who in turn are trained, socialized, hired, assessed by people like them creating reasonable – and sometimes unreasonable – differences. E.g., – Academics vs practitioners vs ‘policymakers’ – Heart surgeons vs cardiologists – Debates over rise/fall of ‘global poverty’ (Kanbur 2001) – Sachs vs Easterly on effectiveness of ‘foreign aid’ (ongoing!) So, in debates over ‘growth strategies’… – ‘Washington Consensus’ (‘neo-liberalism’) vs MDGs vs HR – Policy X vs Policy Y vs Policy X ’ (i.e., ‘the what’) – Little attention to implementation (‘how?’, ‘by whom’?) – Little attention to identifying, interrogating the actual problem Many experts ‘sell’ solutions; don’t wrestle with novel problems

5. Stylized Fact #1a: ‘Modern economic growth’ (Kuznets) is a recent phenomena

6. #1b: Or, ‘poverty’ is the historical norm; need to explain national wealth 6 India, $2990 1851 China, $5332 1898 Ethiopia, $688 ~ Year 1250 1929 Mexico, $8165 Economic Trajectory of Leading Country Current Cross Section From: Pritchett (2009)

7. #2: Divergence: some countries (OECD) rich, some rising (BRICs), most still poor

8. Economic growth, 1980-2010 Great divergence continues… 8

9. How wealthy is the US?

10. #3a: Global inequality today is mostly a result of between-country differences

11. #3b: Though within-country inequality rising at unprecedented rates in late 20 th C 11

12. #4: But still better to be poor in a rich country than rich in a poor country Nigeria China U.S.A.

13. Within- and Between-country inequality today 13

14. #5: 100+ years of stable, 2.6% pa growth = Prosperity (OECD) Source: Pritchett and Werker 2012

15. #6a: Few countries have initiated and sustained rapid growth China, (India) “Getting to Portugal” (poorest OECD country) – Who’s made it in the last 60 years? South Korea (Taiwan…) Chile (Singapore) Selected Eastern European States – Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Slovenia…

16. #6b: Turbulent, volatile growth characterizes most poor countries Source: Pritchett and Werker (2012)

17. #7: Heterodoxy (‘many recipes’) required; ‘best fit’ not ‘best practice’ Rodrik (2007, 2012) – No single story can (yet?) accommodate this variety Or, this diversity requires at least a coherent array of theories Work inductively from evidence to principles to ‘policy’ – Successful cases often followed non-orthodox path China, Taiwan, South Korea… Rich countries themselves took different paths, have different institutional configurations (e.g., Japan vs Canada vs Netherlands) Lots of devils in lots of details Whether to pursue a particular policy course must be fit for purpose, context-specific – Much of professional life, and our global institutional architecture, actively conspires against this

18. #8: Getting ‘good institutions’, implementing effective policy, is really hard Sustained economic growth is a ‘relentless revolution’ (Appleby 2011) – Legitimacy of change process is key – More complex economic activity requires correspondingly robust, adaptable global and national institutions Good aggregate description of ‘institutions’ does not map on a good theory or ‘instruments’ for getting them Many countries struggle to deliver the mail (i.e., perform purely logistical tasks), let alone implement something as complex as ‘the rule of law’ ‘Institutions’ as human inventions – Cf. languages, religions (Fukuyama 2011) – Back to types of problems… (to be continued!)

19. Big picture, rival views? ‘Culture’ ‘Institutions’ ‘Geography’