1. Adaptation to Climate Change
Rajib Shaw
Kyoto University
Contents of the presentation:
What is the problem?
What is climate change?
Climate change and its relation to disaster
Climate change, vulnerability, adaptation
Community based adaptation (CBA)
CBA and Flood
CBA and Drought
Success of CBA
Climate change and policy
National
Local
International
Climate change adaptation model
We will now focus on the climate change adaptation as the missing link of environment and disaster issues. This presentation will focus on problem identification, and will describe briefly the climate change and its linkage to disaster and vulnerability. The presentation will also focus on adaptation with specific focus on community based adaptation (flood and drought), and the success factors for these. Climate change and policy issues will also be described, and the presentation will end with a suggested climate change model.

2. What is the problem?
People are observing new trends in disaster impacts
Traditional weather prediction does not work
Traditional disaster planning and policy are not working
New development activities are going on, without further consideration of future climatic scenario
Thus, there is a lack of:
Proper perception on climate change
Proper understanding and correlation
Proper inter-linkages, and
Appropriate Actions
The main problem is that people are seeing something unusual in the form of natural disasters, which their ancestors did not experience. For example, in some places, there are 3-4 years of consecutive droughts, or longer spell of dry days. Some places, which never had experienced typhoons, are currently hit by major typhoons and catastrophic rainfall.
Traditional forecast is not working, and traditional wisdom and knowledge may not be relevant in some cases. Also, in most of the countries, the traditional disaster plan and policies focus on past disasters, and do not take into consideration future disaster scenario with climate change impacts.
In many places, new development activities are on-going without considering the future uncertainties. Thus, always there is a gap between knowledge and perception, and perception and action.

3. What is Climate Change?
Due to increasing human activities at different levels, prominent changes occur in the climate and natural environment
Climate change is already happening:
The global mean surface temperature in the 20th century has risen by about 0,6 °C.
Climate change is also projected:
The average sea level is projected to rise by between 0.09 and 0.88 m
The global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by °C by 2100
Climate change projections face some crucial issues:
The projections are often very coarse, and lack local details
The projections are often far into future, not immediate future
Better in predicting average change than extreme climatic conditions
This slide shows us what is climate change. Climate change is a consequence of human activities, and its impacts are already observed. The world's climate has always varied naturally. Scientists believe, however, that a new kind of climate change is now under way. Its impacts on people and ecosystems are to be drastic. Levels of carbon dioxide and other 'greenhouse gases' in the atmosphere have risen steeply since the industrial revolution. Concentrations have increased mainly because of the use of fossil fuels, deforestation and other human activities, spurred on by economic and population growth. Like a blanket around the planet, greenhouse gases stop energy escaping from the Earth's surface and atmosphere.
Climate change is happening, and there are different climatic projections. Climate change scenario is produced by different models. These models and climate change scenario have limitations. In most cases, the projections are very coarse, and are in the regional levels. However, local policy makers and managers do not have any clue on the local climate scenario. The other issue is the projections are often far into future (in the range of years). But, the policy makers and decision-makers need to know about the immediate future, e.g., next 5-10 years.
There is a distinct difference of extreme climate variation and climate change. Extreme climate variations are often often oscillatory. But the climate change scenario mainly talks about the average changes of temperature, humidity, sea-level etc.

4. Climate Change and Disasters
Climate change will have a variety of impacts in terms of natural disasters:
More droughts, floods, heat waves, water shortages,
Increasingly diversion of the typhoon path
Impacts will hit the poor hardest
Precautionary principle
Climate Change impacts is multiplied with misguided development
Climate change has a direct impact in the form of natural disasters like floods, drought, heat waves etc. In certain places, we see more dry days/ years (leading to sever drought), in other places, it is consecutive days of rains (leading to catastrophic floods). We also see that the places which are not in the regular typhoon paths are hit by major typhoons. This affect the lives and livelihoods in both rural and urban communities. Sudden changes in the disaster pattern leaves the people, communities and government unprepared.
As obvious, the disaster impacts are more prominent for poor people, and therefore, developing nations has to pay a high stake in this regard. Since climate change impacts are difficult to predict, precautionary principles are used to reduce its impacts. In most cases, it is found that improper development enhance the impact of climate change.
In many places, it is found that climate change impacts are multiplied by misguided development, like poor land use (building on floodplains or unstable slopes), deforestation, uncontrolled population growth and urbanization, social injustice, poverty and economic growth.

5. Climate Change and Vulnerability
Climate change impacts are related to vulnerability of different types: social, cultural, economic etc.
Important issues are: where are the vulnerable areas, and who are the most vulnerable
Climate change impacts should be seen at different levels (like international, national and local), and at different issues (like eco-system, settlements, food, health and water)
Climate change impact and capacity assessment
Climate change vulnerability can be assessed in different ways: through stakeholder, resource mapping, and sustainable livelihood analysis
Climate change impacts are related to social, cultural and economic vulnerability of the communities. Where and Who: these two are the vital questions for climate change vulnerability. Where is the most affected people, and who are the most affected people. The vulnerability analysis should attempt these two points.
This should be analyzed at different levels with different issues. International, national and local level interventions are crucial. Also, different issues like eco-system, settlements, food, health and water should be considered.
People’s capacity should also be a crucial factor, which should be undertaken in vulnerability analysis. There are different means of vulnerability analysis: stakeholder, resource mapping, and livelihood analysis.

6. What is Climate Change Adaptation?
Implementation of climate change mitigation measures needs time
Applicability of climate change adaptation is increasingly recognized
Focus needs to be on community based adaptation, and local government policy options
A few steps on climate change adaptation include: 1) preliminary climate risk assessment, 2) assess priorities and plan follow-up, 3) raise awareness, 4) establish and enhance partnership, 5) highlight climate related vulnerability with other actors, 6) document and share experiences, and 7) promote advocacy for adaptive actions.
To reduce the impacts of the climate change, mitigation measures are planned and negotiated in the international level, which takes time and efforts at different levels. In most cases, the ratification of treaties and its actual implementation are time-consuming. Therefore, IPCC (Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change) has started emphasizing climate change adaptation, which targets adaptive actions at different levels of governments and communities.
Over past, people has always been adapting to the weather they were faced with, including extreme events. Climate change adaptation should build on that experience, but taking into account that the change of climate is now more rapid, and there are several other complicated factors, which adds to the vulnerability related to climate change.
Community and local government focus are two important elements for the climate change adaptation. Since the adaptation very much depends on the local context, community involvement is a key factor for its success.
There are seven key steps for climate change adaptation, which starts from assessment of risk and priorities, followed by awareness raising, partnership building, develop multi-stakeholder communications, document and share experiences, and promote advocacy for adaptive actions. steps listed here are drawn from a Red Cross/Red Crescent publication “Preparedness for Climate Change”. They are intended primarily for National Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies who want to incorporate climate change adaptation into disaster risk reduction, facilitated by national-level partnerships with hydro-meteorological offices, but implemented through disaster risk reduction activities at the community level, with an additional element of advocacy towards local and national governments. Hence, the steps may not be applicable to all the actors, but these are basic steps, and can be customized to fit into the local context.
To prevent and reduce climate change impacts, different treaties are proposed at international levels, which needs time for ratification, and needs even more time for its implementation

7. What is Community Based Adaptation?
Community based adaptation is getting increasing attention.
Adaptation responses to date have been largely reactive rather than proactive.
Proactive Micro-Adaptation (PMA) has a significant potential to be a crucial component of strategies to address impacts of climate change.
Further, proactive adaptation has considerable policy potential at various levels.
Climate change adaptation is required at different levels, from national government policies to local community actions. However, communities, being the first responders to the disasters, the concept of community based adaptation is getting increasing attention.
Adaptation, so far, has been mostly reactive, than pro-active. Proactive adaptation emphasizes on pre-event activities, rather than post-event reactive measures. And, these activities should be done at local level. Therefore, “proactive” and “micro” these are the key two terms, which should be focused here. Proactive micro adaptation encompasses anticipatory strategies and measures taken by communities, businesses, governments and other stakeholders at local level.
However, PMA will be relevant, only when it is linked to the local government policy implications. Therefore, the linkage of implementation and policy is of extreme importance.

8. Climate Change Adaptation Model
This figure shows the climate change adaptation model with involvement of different stakeholders. Climate change impacts are seen as rainfall, run-off, temperature increase/ decrease, dray days, coastal zone erosion etc. The key is to develop the bridge between government, NGO and community, and how these bridges (can be in the form of organization or network or people) can effectively disseminate climate information to the people, and urge them to take action.
Disaster proofing practice, climate scenario, link with specialized agencies (for technical support) and relief-development linkage are some of the key issues, which need to be discussed at local and government policy levels.
On the action side, there are different ways, from water management, agriculture, animal husbandry and livelihood improvements. On the policy level, these should be incorporated in the development plans. A synergy of these two approaches will lead to successful adaptation at community level. Following slides will provide some illustrative examples.

9. How CBA can be practiced? Coastal Zone
Climate change has affected the coastal zone of the Philippines
The worst sufferers are the fishing communities, due to change in the coastal eco-system
Adaptation measures include local government policies, awareness raising among different sectors, and national government strategies and policies
The Philippine archipelago, which has one of the longest coastlines in the world, will not be spared of the adverse impacts of sea-level rise and extreme climate events that are expected to happen in a warmer world. The erratic changes in the climate system have affected various coastal ecosystem and communities. Among which coral bleaching, changes in productivity, changes in plankton dynamics, alterations in seagrass and sea weed reproduction patterns, shoreline erosion and retreat, changes in trophic dynamics as well as aggravation of marine diseases are just a few. Apparently, the most significant impact is on coastal fisheries yield and community welfare. Lack of availability of good fish in the coastal areas are getting restricted, and it is affecting the local livelihoods.
To adapt with the changing climate, the local communities are working with different stakeholders for awareness raising, and policy implementation. A combination of technical support (from academics), advocacy support (from NGOs), and policy support (from government) will lead to successful adaptation measures.

10. How CBA can be practiced? Drought
A significant change of rainfall pattern is observed in Western India, resulting 2-3 consecutive drought years
The worst effect is on livelihoods: agriculture, and animal husbandry
To cope with 3 consecutive years of drought is beyond community coping capacities
Tradition drought proofing needs consideration of climate change uncertainties
Collective efforts are being undertaken for drought proofing
These measures, while implemented at community level, should be part of the local development policies
Drought mitigation with community based adaptation (CBA) is mentioned here. This is an example from the state of Gujarat, he western part of India, which was hit by consecutive years of drought. In past 20 years, the consecutive years of drought has increased from 2 to 3 years. This has left the local communities unprepared. Traditional coping mechanisms are not working in this scenario. IT affects people’s livelihoods the most.
To cope with drought, the key elements are: 1) proper information flow about the rainfall pattern, and appropriate early warning, 2) village level participatory planning, 3) drought proofing measures like small check-dams, rain water harvesting, fodder bank etc., 4) incentives for making existing schemes available to small/marginal farmer (Credit, insurance, subsidies), 5) Cross-sectoral dialogue, 6) Agriculture based industries and markets, 7) Support for traditional options, and 8) Development is the best form of adaptation.
Drought proofing measures are important elements, and all the efforts should be cross-sectoral to make it sustainable. The key issue is to incorporate these activities in local development policies. Details of this is presented in the readings.

11. How CBA can be practiced? Flood
Central Vietnam is experiencing large floods, often resulted due to catastrophic rain or rain due to sudden typhoon.
Agriculture, related livelihood options are deeply affected
In rural areas, the adaptation measures are more on participatory planning, awareness raising, and implementation.
In urban areas, CBA is more related to urban planing, local development planning and policy, and establishing effective communication system.
For flood, the issues are quite similar to that of drought. Central part of Vietnam are hardly hit by catastrophic rain within a short period of time, and it causes significant flood in the urban and rural areas. The direct impact is on agriculture and livelihood, but there are other impacts on health, sanitation, education etc.
Unlike drought, flood affects both urban and rural areas, and the CBA measures are different. While, for the rural areas, it is more on the community based training, capacity building and action, for the urban area, it is more on policy and plan.
In rural areas, the most common CBA measures are: 1) change of the crop pattern, and crop calendar, 2) consultative decision making, training and capacity building, 3) effective community based communication system, 4) focusing on health and sanitation issues, 5) undertake some small infrastructure construction, and 6) documenting and sharing the experiences.
For urban areas, more emphasis are given on the planning and policy issues, where the climate change uncertainties can be linked to urban development planning.

12. How CBA can be practiced? Climate Information
Providing right climate information to farmers is one of key issue
A few steps are:
Providing climate outlook
Transferring global to local outlook
Translating climate outlook to local scenario
Communication to local farmers
Farmers of Barangay Maquina in Dumangas Municipality, Iloilo Province, south of Philippines still remember the devastation brought by climate in 1997: floods damaged their first crop, and El-Nino-induced drought damaged their second crop. The community is predominantly agricultural, with rice as the main product (90%). For farmers who do not own the land they till (50% of total), this meant going deeper in debt as they try to re-pay their investment and pay rent to landowners, and … hunger.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)’s Extreme Climate Events (ECE) Program has piloted the demonstration of the application of climate forecast information in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam from 2001 till Seasonal forecasts are disseminated by the NMS (National Meteorological Services) to various user agencies, which then analyze potential impacts with reference to past impacts and accordingly prepare contingency plans. The ECE program complemented this approach by assessing climate risks to vulnerable populations (e.g. subsistence farmers at the tail-end of irrigation systems or those that entirely depend on rainfall), evaluating what kind of climate information they would need at what time to be able to take anticipatory actions, and communicating these needs to the NMS for the packaging of a climate forecast that is easily understood, will motivate at risk populations to take action, and issued at appropriate times for them to take mitigation actions. This end-to-end climate information generation and application system is illustrated below. The feedback mechanism allows for adjustments in the forecasts to make them relevant to users.
This helps the farmers to adapt to the climate change impacts.

13. Issues of Community Based Adaptation
The key issue of climate change community based adaptation is the right information to the community
Involvement of the community in the process is critical, and is linked to the ownership of the adaptation actions
Institutionalization at local government development plan is a definite challenge
Coordination among NGO, local government, and academic is crucial
High demand for training/awareness raising activities among stakeholders
Community based approach was very effective in developing appropriate adaptation strategies for vulnerable communities. The most crucial point is to provide the right information to the community, which they can use appropriately o make the planning and preparedness. This may be the right information on coastal eco-system, change in crop pattern, weather forecast, flood warning etc.
Community should be strongly involved in the whole process, from assessment to awareness raising, to implementation. This will help in develop ownership of the project and process.
Institutionalization, which needs to be implemented at local government levels is very important. Different agencies and stakeholders has a strong role to play, thus coordination among stakeholder is also important. To sustain the whole effort, training and capacity building is essential. It is found in different cases that continued efforts and people’s participation can overrule political pressure.

14. Climate Change Adaptation Local
Incorporate the recommended actions into local government policies
Special emphasis should be given on agriculture and livelihood support system, and health and education services in the local governments
Training and awareness raising of local government managers is one of the important aspect of the policy measures
Resource commitment at local government is the key issue for the success of its adaptation actions
Multi-stakeholder cooperation is required at local level
Policy development and its implementation for climate change adaptation should start at local level. The first issue is this regard is incorporation of recommended adaptation actions into local government policies. Especially for the rural areas, focus should be on basic services like livelihood support, and extension services of agriculture, health, education.
Development of a system is important, and for this, human resources and financial resources are essential. Human resources need to be developed through training and capacity building. Financial resource utilization from the regular development budget is the key to the sustainability of the initiative.
Local government, communities, non-government organizations and local academic institutions should work closely to ensure implementation of community based adaptation

15. Climate Change Adaptation National
National and international policies set the context for facilitating Proactive micro adaptation (or community based adaptation).
Good policy coordination on a range of proactive adaptation measures and actions at various levels can help avoid mal-adaptation.
Resource mobilization is essential.
Climate change impacts are crosscutting in nature, and require synergies.
The most important issue for sustainable adaptation measure is its policy relevance. At the national and international level, there are different negotiation on progress in this regard. Effective policy coordination is essential. Resource mobilization is another key factor, which needs to be integrated in the policy. At the national level, for effective policy integration, the inter-linkages and synergies among different treaties are important, since these are often implemented by different focal point points in different ministries. The integration requires co-ordination among different stakeholders within different defined landscape areas at local, national and international levels.
The main challenge of policy integration at national level is lack of inter-linkages and synergies among different MEA (multilateral environmental agreements) and horizontal communication among different ministries at national level. Since climate change issues are cross-cutting, it needs communication among different ministries, like health, labor, construction, environment and so on.

16. Climate Change Adaptation: International
International climate negotiations to date, however, have paid inadequate attention to community based climate change adaptation
Bilateral and multilateral development agency should have policy on climate change adaptation
Actions needs to be taken at international levels should have following emphasis:
Efforts to link with other international initiatives
Emphasis on near future scenario
Risk management approach
At the international level, efforts are rather limited for CBA. Some progress is evident through National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) processes under UNFCCC (United Nations Framework of Convention for Climate Change), and the Small Grants Programme of the Global Environmental Facility (GEF). However, a few major bilateral and multi-lateral development agencies have clear policy on climate change adaptation. This is of extreme importance, since many of the development works are done by these agencies, and if the current development practices do not include future uncertainties, it is difficult to sustain in future.
There needs to be stronger efforts to link the adaptation measures to other international initiatives on disaster, environment etc. Also, it is required to focus on near future, rather than far future. Risk management approach should be undertaken for a wide range of elements at risk, ranging from communities to ecosystems, at short and long time scales and across spatial scales.