1. Why Study Environmental Geology?
Poorna Pal, MS MBA Ph.D.
Professor of Geology
Chair: Geology & Oceanography Program
Glendale Community College

2. Disaster mitigation has become
a socioeconomic necessity because of increasing
Fatalities
damage and destruction
an increasingly complex task because of intricate public policy choices
in addition to the perennial problems of
a seemingly insatiable demand for the natural resources and
the attendant problems of environmental degradation and climate change.

3. Fatalities
Since the 1970s, natural disasters have produced two-thirds of all disaster-related fatalities worldwide.
Fatalities are more common in the economically less developed Third World than in the economically developed world.
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4. Disasters* High wind: 21% Earthquakes: 8% Flood: 19% Other natural
* International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (The Economist, Sept 6, 1997)
High wind: 21%
Earthquakes: 8%
Flood: 19%
Other natural
disasters: 21%
Volcanoes: 1%
Drought & Famine: 6%
Landslides: 3%
Man-made
disasters: 34%
Disasters*
by type:
Total
Fatalities
worldwide: ( )
8,219,000
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5. DISASTER FATALITIES* (1971-96: IN THOUSANDS) 4 8 12 164 8 12 16
ETHIOPIA
48.4
MOSTLY FAMINE
BANGLADESH
31.9
MOSTLY FLOODS
CHINA
SUDAN
MOSTLY MASS STARVATION
INDIA
MOSTLY FLOODS
MOZAMBIQUE
NICARAGUA
IRAN
PHILIPPINES
SOVIET UNION/CIS STATES
COLUMBIA
GUATEMALA
SOMALIA
* International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
(The Economist, Sept 6, 1997)
HONDURAS
PERU
MEXICO
NIGERIA
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6. Deaths
Damage
Changes, in this century, in the number of deaths and cost of damage, in U.S. hurricanes
(cost in billion 1996$)
Source: Harvey Blatt: OUR GEOLOGIC ENVIRONMENT (Prentice Hall, 1997)
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7. The Complexities of Disaster Mitigation Strategies
Predictive value of the scaling law and its implications for the public-policy choices.
Population Growth, Technology and Environmental Stress
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8. The U.S. 20th Century Natural Disaster Fatality-Frequency Plots
0.1 1 10
0.01
100
1,000
10,000
Floods
Hurricanes
Earthquakes
Number of events per year
Tornadoes
The U.S. 20th Century Natural Disaster Fatality-Frequency Plots

9. This exponential scaling gives us three alternative choices
Flatten the curve
Steepen the curve
Lower the intercept

10. The Malthusian Trap World Stock Market2 Gross World Product110
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020 5 50
The Malthusian Trap
All indexed to 1920 = 1
World Population1
1 J. Bradford DeLong:
Gross World Product1
2 P. Jorion & W. Goetzmann: Journal of Finance, 54(3), June 1999
World Stock Market2

11. Years Before the Present
100
1000
10000 1 10
Years Before the Present
GDP, per capita, in inflation adjusted 2000 PPP$
World Population (in million)

12. Earthquake fatalities, World population (in billions)
(per million inhabitants)
World population (in billions)
100 10
0.1
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000 1 2 4 6

13. Energy consumption (in terrajoules)
France
U.K.
China
Sweden
Russia
USA
Brazil
Italy
Singapore
0.1 1 10
100
0.01
Mexico
Germany
India
Japan
Norway
Swtizerland
Saudi Arabia
Netherlands
Australia
Spain
Economic prosperity and energy consumption are closely correlated
Energy consumption (in terrajoules)
GDP (PPP) in trillion US $

14. (billion tons C equivalent)
… and so are economic prosperity and carbon emmissions
0.03
0.1 1 3 10
0.3
USA
China
Japan
Russia
Germany
India
U.K.
Ukraine
Poland
Canada
Italy
France
Iran
Brazil
Mexico
South
Korea
Australia
Africa
North
Kazakstan
(billion tons C equivalent)
Total Emission
GDP (PPP) in trillion US $

15. Colorado River United States Mexico 40 30 10 20 2000 1900 1920 1940
1980
1960
Sandra Postel: Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy (STATE OF THE WORLD 1996: Worldwatch Institute , 1996)
Colorado River
Mexico
United States

16. Drying of the Aral Sea Aral Sea 1940 2000 1980 1960 80 20 40 60
Sandra Postel: Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy (STATE OF THE WORLD 1996: Worldwatch Institute , 1996)
1940
2000
1980
1960 80 20 40 60
Aral Sea

17. Thus, the environmental stress attendant to population growth presents a catch-22 situation:
Poverty and deprivation enhance environmental stress.
But this stress is only aggravated by the technology that is needed to ameliorate the deprivation.