1. Density Data Gap Filling Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab Duke University November 14 – 16, 2012 Marine Mammal Density Data Gap Assessments and Update for the Phase III AFTT Study Area Workshop objectives

2. Day 1 Review Meeting overview Needs (Navy, NOAA…) Context Existing Density Models Acoustic Effects Model Needs Available Data

3. Atlantic Fleet Testing & Training – AFTT study area

4. Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico Filling Density Data Gaps Density of protected species ship & aircraft surveys Atlantic Fleet Testing & Training Area ? ? ? ? ? ? The offshore-distant data-gap problem….

5. Filling Density Data Gaps Density of protected species ship & aircraft surveys ? The port & pier-side data-gap problem….

6. Hierarchy of Approaches A) Density spatial model based estimates will be used when available. B) If no density spatial model based estimates are available, the following can be used in order of preference: – a) Density estimates using design-based methods incorporating line-transect survey – data and involving spatial stratification (e.g., estimates split by depth strata or arbitrary survey sub-regions) – b) Density estimates using design-based methods incorporating only line- transect survey data (i.e. regional density estimate, stock assessment report) – c) Density estimates derived using a Relative Environmental Suitability (RES) model in conjunction with survey data. C) In some cases extrapolation from neighboring regional density estimates or population/stock assessments is appropriate based on expert opinion. 2012 NMSDD NAVFAC Technical Report

8. The problem How do we provide best available information to fill cetacean density data gaps? How do we communicate uncertainty? How do we prioritize new data collection efforts? How do we prioritize new modeling efforts?

9. Existing Approaches NMFS Stock assessments Designed-based density estimation – Stratified Designed-based density estimation LTS / Habitat Based Density Models Relative Environmental Suitability (RES) Models

10. Port & Pierside estuary scale Regional Coastal shelf (Large) Navy Testing & Training areas Ocean Basin scales Global scales Spatial scales for hierarchical models Navy Operational Areas scale (RES models) (LTS / Habitat-Based Density models) Hierarchical / updatable Bayesian framework

11. Types of models Source: Guisan & Zimmermann, 2000. Different Statistical Approaches to Ecological Habitat Modeling (a)Generalized Linear Model with second order polynomial terms; (b)Generalized Additive Model with smoothed spline functions; (c)Classification Tree (CART); (d)Environmental Envelope models (e)Canonical Correspondence Analysis; (f)Bayesian models according to Aspinall (1992); pp posterior probability of presence of the modeled species, ppp a priori probability of presence, ppa a priori probability of absence, pcp product of conditional probability of presence of the various predictor classes, pca product of conditional probability of absence of the various predictor classes.

12. Types of models Source: Guisan & Zimmermann, 2000. Different Statistical Approaches to Ecological Habitat Modeling (a)Generalized Linear Model with second order polynomial terms; (b)Generalized Additive Model with smoothed spline functions; (c)Classification Tree (CART); (d)Environmental Envelope models (e)Canonical Correspondence Analysis; (f)Bayesian models according to Aspinall (1992); pp posterior probability of presence of the modeled species, ppp a priori probability of presence, ppa a priori probability of absence, pcp product of conditional probability of presence of the various predictor classes, pca product of conditional probability of absence of the various predictor classes.

13. RES based density estimates

14. RES model predictors: (A)bathymetry (in m); (B)annual average sea-surface temperature (SST, in °C), (C)mean annual distance to the ice edge (in km)

15. RES based density estimates Data used to test RES model

16. Relative Environmental Suitability (RES) Model Kristin Kaschner, Sea Around Us Project, Fisheries Centre, UBC [Version of April 2004] http://www.seaaroundus.org/ where RESc represents the product of the generated RES in that cell c for D (depth), T (SST), distance from the ice edge (I) and, in some cases, from land (Dis), respectively Method

17. Relative Environmental Suitability (RES) Model Kristin Kaschner, Sea Around Us Project, Fisheries Centre, UBC [Version of April 2004] http://www.seaaroundus.org/

18. RES model

19. Kaschner / SMRU density estimates

20. Marine Mammal observations by type

21. Data discussion questions: Are there existing data that haven’t been tapped yet? What types of data could be appropriate? – Line-transect surveys – Passive acoustics – Platform of opportunity – Photo-id – Telemetry tracking – Expert knowledge – range maps? – Expert knowledge – important areas? – _____________________?

22. Data discussion questions: What data can Navy use? What data can NMFS use? Will a data hierarchy be helpful? __________________________?

23. Data discussion questions: How should we best use new data? – What is the best use of Navy monitoring data collected in training ranges? – Validation testing vs. new model training?

24. GOODS

25. LME

26. Longhurst

27. Oliver & Irwin

28. Workshop Objectives This workshop will explore the current state of the Navy Marine Species Density Database (NMSDD), the Navy Acoustic Effects Model (NAEMO), current animal density modeling efforts, and outline next steps for future marine animal density modeling.

29. General Objectives The purpose of this effort is to develop & implement methods to fill data gaps from the CetMap products to cover the remaining areas in the AFTT study area. The primary focus of this task will be to develop and implement a quantitative approach to extrapolate the data from the CetMap working group, both spatially and temporally for all marine mammal species present within the AFTT area. These marine density data will be the most up-to- date definitive data for acoustic effect analysis in the upcoming Phase III AFTT EIS.

30. Workshop Objectives Discuss making project outputs publically available and re-usable through the web and web services. Build consensus on next generation modeling approaches or ensembles for the USN Atlantic Testing and Training Range (AFTT). Discuss data gap assessment, gap filling methods, and creating a hierarchy of data quality Discuss the future beyond this modeling effort including data standards and model processes that enable repeatability of existing models.

31. Workshop Objectives Additional objectives… Set the stage for potential parallel efforts to be conducted for Pacific training areas… Begin the process of adding sea turtle density assessments more fully into the process…

32. Workshop process Moderated discussions – Question driven; – Solutions focused; – Product oriented; The outcomes of this workshop are intended to directly inform future priorities and activities

33. Workshop Objectives (1) Build consensus on next generation modeling approaches or ensembles for the USN Atlantic Testing and Training Range (AFTT). General Discussion Topics: Appropriate types of modeling approaches; Error & uncertainty; Model validation & testing; Merging different models and information;

34. Workshop Objectives (2) Discuss data gap assessment, gap filling methods, and creating a hierarchy of data quality. General Discussion Topics: Gaps in space & time; Available data types and priorities; Role of expert knowledge; Hierarchy of data quality.

35. Workshop Objectives (3) Discuss the future beyond this modeling effort including data standards and model processes that enable repeatability of existing models. General Discussion Topics: Data standards and classification of data types; Best practice standards for models; Ensemble models;

36. Workshop Objectives (4) Discuss making project outputs publically available and re-usable through the web and web services. General Discussion Topics: Data and model delivery: clients & users; Product types; Discovery metadata services; Data & model development, delivery & archival process.

37. agenda Day 1, Wednesday November 14 – Problem Overview (Executive Classroom) 10:00 AMIntroduction Welcome / Meeting Objectives (Pat) Logistics (Ben D) Introductions 10:30 AMContext and Programmatic Needs Navy AFTT density modeling needs (Anu) NOAA remarks (Jolie) Updates on ongoing projects CetMap progress (discussion leads: Jolie, Pat) AMAPPS (discussion leads: Debi, Lance) Atlantic/GoMex modeling update (discussion leads: Pat, Ben B, Jason) Pacific modeling update (discussion leads: Karin/Elizabeth) 12:00 PMLunch – Thomas Center dining room Context & Updates

38. agenda Day 1, Wednesday November 14 1:00 PM Extending density models Overview of the problem (Pat) Extent, seasonality, port/pierside Navy Acoustic Effect model - NAEMO (discussion lead: TBD) Sea Mammal Research Unit (SMRU) approaches and guidance (TBD) 2:00 PMData Availability: Moderated Discussion Hierarchy of Types Line Transect Surveys Passive Acoustics Platforms of Opportunity, new and non-traditional data sources Data Sources & Future data collection – Navy – NOAA AMAPPS 3:00 PM Coffee Break/Free discussion 3:30 PMStatistical Approaches: Moderated Discussion Overview of existing modeling approaches (Pat) Model types, Feasibility and implementation, Error and uncertainty, Selection and validation, Edge matching 4:45 PMEnd of day wrap up 5:00 PMBreak for the day Problem definition & discussion

39. agenda Day 2, Thursday, November 15 – Model Details 9:00 AMDay 2 overview and goals 9:30 AMModel approach brainstorming Statistical approaches for data poor regions Ensemble approaches and model averaging 10:30 AMCoffee Break/Free Discussion 11:00 AMExtrapolation and Gap filling Spatial gaps Navy Ports / Pierside Coastal Pelagic Temporal gaps Seasonal Gaps Taxonomic gaps guilds, surrogates Role of Expert Opinion Validation of gap filling 12:00 PMLunch – Thomas Center dining room Potential solutions & approaches

40. agenda Day 2, Thursday, November 15 – Model Details 1:00 PM Addressing error, uncertainty and standards What is possible? What is required? Creating an hierarchy of data quality Standards to streamline incorporating new data into existing models 3:00 PM Coffee Break 3:30 PM Implementation Timelines – Milestone map for implementation – NMSDD update process – Public and interagency access – Web services and upcoming technologies – Plan for third party guidance and review 4:45 PM End of day wrap up – Modify and approve agenda for final day 5:00 PMBreak for the day Reality check: error, uncertainty, standards, requirements & timelines

41. agenda Day 3, Friday, November 16 – Next Steps 9:00 AMReview and next steps Review responsibilities Approve timeline 10:30 AMCoffee Break 10:45 AMDiscussion and wrap up Priorities Next steps 12:00 PMLunch – Thomas Center dining room 1:00 PMMeeting adjourns Path forward & next steps

42. Logistics