1. Modelling Sector Demands P.R. Shukla

2. Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission, Cost Energy Sector Optimization Model (MARKAL) Long-Term Demand Projection Model Technology Shares End-use Demand TransportAgriculture Residential Commercial Industry UrbanRural Steel CementAluminumSugar Chlor-Alkali PaperBrick TextilesFertilizerOthers End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM) Integrated Bottom-Up Modeling System

3. Indian Economy TransportAgriculture Residential Commercial Industry UrbanRural Steel CementAluminumSugar Chlor-Alkali PaperBrick TextilesFertilizerOthers End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM) Sectors in Indian AIM/ENDUSE Model

4. AIM/ENDUSE Model for India: Demand Projections

5. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 19751995201520352055 Steel (million ton) Sectoral Demand Projection: Logistic Regression Demand Projection for Steel In ((Y t / Y o )/(1- Y t / Y o )) = a + bt t = time period Y t = level of demand at time t Y 0 = asymptotic limit for the demand Y t a,b : Parameters to be estimated exp(a + bt) 1+exp(a + bt) Y t = Y 0

6. GVA Charts

7. GDP

8. Industry GVA

9. Transport GVA

10. Commercial GVA

11. Agriculture GVA

12. PFCE

13. Steel Process Figure

14. Steel Demand Projection

15. Aluminum Demand Projection

16. Cement Process Figure

17. Cement Demand Projection

18. Paper Process Figure

19. Paper Demand Projection

20. Brick Process Figure

21. Brick Demand Projection

22. Fertilizer Demand Projection

23. Caustic Soda Process Figure

24. Caustic Soda Demand Projection

25. Soda Ash Demand Projection

26. Sugar Demand Projection

27. Textile Demand Projection

28. Transport Technology Options ROAD Vehicles PASSENGERGOODS 2-WheelerHeavy Truck (Diesel) 3-WheelerLight Truck (Diesel) Petrol CarHeavy Truck (CNG) Diesel CarLight Truck (CNG) CNG Car RAIL Vehicles Steam Loco Diesel Loco Electric Loco

29. Reference Energy System for Transport Gasoline Heavy Oil Diesel CNG Electricity Coal ATF 2-W 3-W 4-W Bus HCV LCV Diesel Train Electric Train Passenger Aircraft Steam Train Ship Road PKMS Road TKMS Rail TKMS Air PKMS Water TKMS Rail PKMS

30. Growth of Traffic in India Passenger (Billion PKms)Goods (Billion TKms)

31. Road Freight Demand Projections

32. Road Passenger Demand Projections

33. Air Passenger Transport Demand Projections

34. Ship Freight Transport Demand Projections

35. Rail Passenger Transport Demand Projections

36. Rail Freight Transport Demand Projections