1. The British Electorate in 2015: The fragmentation of Britain’s Party system Professor Ed Fieldhouse University of Manchester www.britishelectionstudy.com Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

2. Decline of two-party system (GB only) Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

3. Effective number of parties since 1945 Source: 1945-2010 Gallagher, 2010; 2015 calculated from vote/seat shares Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

4. Fragmentation of votes and seats Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

5. Conditions for fragmentation of electoral choice Slight increase in the 2 party vote but fragmentation of vote for other parties Long-term factors include – depolarisation of parties (distinctiveness of options) – disaffection with main parties/politicians Short-term specific factors – coalition government and prospect of another hung parliament – Lib Dem collapse – multi-level governance + referendum in Scotland (spill-over effects) Continuing buffer of electoral system to moderate electoral change Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

6. Lib Dem Collapse 1 Source http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

7. Lib Dem Collapse 3: where the Lib Dem 2010 voters went Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

8. Lib Dem Collapse 2 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

9. Lib Dem collapse 4 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

10. Lib Dem collapse 4 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

11. Lib Dem collapse 5 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

12. The impact of Scottish referendum 1 Source http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

13. The impact of Scottish referendum 2 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

14. The impact of Scottish referendum 3 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

15. The impact of Scottish referendum 4 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

16. The impact of Scottish referendum 5

17. Expectations of a hung Parliament Decreases incentives to vote for major parties because parties can’t deliver fully on their platforms Increases incentives to vote for minor parties: By increasing the likelihood of influence in government (weakening strategic desertion); By increasing the incentive to maximise popular support of a favoured minor party to increase its influence Enhancing the relative utility of sincere expressive voting in face of lack of an unambiguous choice between potential governments By increasing chances of favourable ‘ideological balancing’ Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

18. www.britishelectionstudy.com Vote Proportions by Hung Parliament Expectation Hung Parliament likelyEven chanceMajority likely England Conservative35.0841.3438.62 Labour27.9234.1541.02 Liberal Democrat14.8910.138.04 UKIP15.6210.298.82 Green Party6.54.093.49 Scotland Conservative7.4118.2420.44 Labour17.4730.7832.35 Liberal Democrat6.17.59.76 Scottish National Party64.9139.3935.04 UKIP1.922.781.51 Green Party2.21.310.9 Wales Conservative22.129.2429.43 Labour32.0237.0446.05 Liberal Democrat9.859.37.22 Plaid Cymru16.211.25.89 UKIP14.7710.5610.13 Green Party5.052.661.28

19. Vote Choice by Hung Parliament Expectation (England, all voters) Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

20. Stratified Models: potential supporters (by party) – Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

21. With local close race by expectations HP interaction – Green voting Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

22. Summary 2015 election delivered unexpected result reflecting significant and (partly) unexpected impact of political shocks: – Lib Dem collapse helped the Tories win seats in England – Referendum helped SNP deny Labour most of Scotland – Expectations of hung parliament increased voting for minor parties www.britishelectionstudy.com @BESResearch