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Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan.

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Presentation on theme: "Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan."— Presentation transcript:

1 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan

2 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Paleoclimatology Redistribution of oxygen isotopes: Interglacial

3 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan

4 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Vostok - +

5 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Natural Causes for Climate Change 1.Solar Fluctuations 2.Orbital Fluctuations 3.Volcanic Emissions 4.Plate Tectonics 5.Changing Ocean Circulation

6 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Solar Fluctuations Solar Fluctuatio n

7 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Milankovitch theory of climate change: Eccentricity : 400 ka and 100 ka

8 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Energy Budget animate Shortwave energy per square meter will decrease at lower sun angles and shorter daylight periods.

9 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Milankovitch theory of climate change: Obliquity: 41 ka

10 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Milankovitch theory of climate change: Axial Precession : 23 ka

11 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Milankovitch theory of climate change: Glacial Ice Growth Configuration:High eccentricity High Tilt Small Earth-Sun Distance in Summer Net Effect:More seasonal contrast

12 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Milankovitch theory of climate change: Inter- Glacial Ice Growth Configuration:Low eccentricity Low Tilt Large Earth-Sun Distance in Summer Net Effect:Less seasonal contrast

13 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Climate Models GOOD NEWS: It has been possible to reproduce past climates using Milankovitch theory plus changes observed in greenhouse gas concentrations. BAD NEWS: Changes were slow and we have little experience modeling rapid change.

14 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Climate Models

15 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Changes in CO 2 (0 - 12,500 YBP) Paleoclimatology NOW

16 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Energy Budget

17 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Climate

18 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Climate Glacial retreat of North American ice sheets (1000s of years) Glacial retreat of North American ice sheets (1000s of years)

19 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Sea Level Change 1-meter rise of sea level equivalent to 0.4 million cubic kilometers of ice

20 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Sea Level Change 1-meter rise of sea level equivalent to 0.4 million cubic kilometers of ice

21 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan RAPID Changes in Climate Happen Climate Warmer Cooler

22 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Climate

23 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Climate CaCO 3 shells of ocean plankton from the Norwegian Sea and the Gulf of Mexico record pulses of low  18 O meltwater delivery from nearby ice sheets. [from Ruddiman, 2001]

24 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Climate CaCO 3 shells of ocean plankton from the Norwegian Sea and the Gulf of Mexico record pulses of low  18 O meltwater delivery from nearby ice sheets. [from Ruddiman, 2001]

25 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Climate During deglaciation the direction of drainage changed. [from Ruddiman, 2001]

26 Natural Fluctuations in Climate Natural Climate Summary Rapid Change Issues Paleoclimate ©2004, Perry Samson, University of Michigan Climate CaCO 3 shells of ocean plankton from the Norwegian Sea and the Gulf of Mexico record pulses of low  18 O meltwater delivery from nearby ice sheets. [from Ruddiman, 2001]

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