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Shipping Markets A Time of Opportunity Nigel Bell Managing Director Bell Shipping Ltd., UK.

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Presentation on theme: "Shipping Markets A Time of Opportunity Nigel Bell Managing Director Bell Shipping Ltd., UK."— Presentation transcript:

1 Shipping Markets A Time of Opportunity Nigel Bell Managing Director Bell Shipping Ltd., UK

2 OECD Growth / Dry Trade Growth 2 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

3 3 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

4 Bulk Spot Earning ($/Day) 4 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

5 5 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

6 Capesize and Panamax values over the last 15 years 5 year old Capesize and Panamax Values 1 January 2003 to 20 th November 2012: Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

7 Newbuilding, Resale, 5 year old and 10 year old Prices: Capesize Panamax YearNewbuildingResale5 year old 10 year oldNewbuildingresale5 year old10 year old 2012464032.52125.8281913.5 201148.5483626.52934.526.520 20105764503834.5433628 20095673554433.8413627.5 20088855453146.5362620 2007971551501055510188.572 2006689381624056.545.537 20055957383629.524 20046464.546364031 2003484432272820 200236.252920.521.51711.5 2001362716.520.5149.5 200040.530.251922.51611.75 19993529.2517.52216.7512 19983325.6714.520149.75 199740.534.4218.5272215.75

8 8 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

9 9 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

10 10 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

11 11 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

12 12 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

13 13 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

14 14 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

15 15 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

16 16 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

17 17 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

18 18 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

19 19 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

20 20 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

21 21 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

22 Capesize Fleet Trends 22 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

23 Panamax Fleet Trends 23 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

24 Handy/Handymax Fleet Trends 24 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

25 25 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Demolition

26 Dry Bulk Market Summary Over-ordering will hold back recovery Panamax will become out dated Only 5% of panamaxes transit the Panama Canal 2 markets for Panamax – Atlantic and Pacific Post-panamax & minicape will replace Panamax Panamax draft vs. Post-Panamax / Minicape draft 75,000 on 13.9mtrs vs. 106,000 on 13.5mtrs Low Newbuilding costs: 2010 2012 Capesize $57.0m $46.5m Panamax $34.5m $26.5m Handymax $31.0m $24.5m Handysize $26.5m $21.5m 26 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

27 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

28 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 28

29 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 29

30 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 30

31 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

32 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

33 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” – November 2012 33

34 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

35 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

36 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 36

37 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 37 Source: Clarkson Research Services

38 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

39 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

40 Tanker Market Summary No New Oil Refineries planned in USA or Europe Virtually all New Oil Refineries are in Asia, India and China Reduction in Crude Oil Demand in USA and Europe Petroleum Product will move from Asia to USA and Europe – Likely Size “LR2 / Coated Aframax” Reduction in Demand for VLCC QUESTION: Shale Oil / Shale Gas Development in USA likely to make USA – Net Exporter of Energy ?? Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 40

41 Acknowledgement and Special Thanks to the following Organisations for contributing information and statistical data: Clarkson Research Services Baltic Exchange Drewry Shipping Consultants www.bellshipping.com 41 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

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