1. Towards an Integrated Planning and Decision Support System (IPDSS) for land consolidation Demetris Demetriou *, District Land Consolidation Officer of Larnaca and Famagusta, Cyprus Dipl. (Eng.), MSc (Eng.), MSc, PhD (Cand.) “Information and Land Management: A Decade after the Millennium” 15-17 November, Sofia, Bulgaria Demetris Demetriou *, John Stillwell, Linda See Centre for Spatial Analysis and Policy School of Geography

2. Contents o Land fragmentation o Land consolidation o Land reallocation o Methods utilised o LACONISS framework o Conclusions

3. Land fragmentation Land consolidation

4. Land consolidation = Land reallocation + Infrastructure o It is the most important and complex process of land consolidation o The problem: “How to optimally rearrange the existing land tenure structure in a certain rural area so as to fulfill the aims of a particular land consolidation project?” o The existing information systems cannot adequately support the process Land redistribution + Land partitioning

5. Land redistribution o Which landowners will take property in the new plan and which not? o What is the total area and land value of the property which will receive each landowner in the new plan? o How many parcels will receive each landowner in the new plan? o What is the area and land value of each new parcel? o What is the approximate location of the new parcel(s) will take each landowner?

6. Land partitioning o Sub-division of land into smaller “sub-spaces” o The aim is to generate regularly shaped parcels which all have access to roads o Define the exact shape and the location of each new parcel

7. Methods utilised o Geographical information systems (GIS) o The planning and decision making model o Expert systems (ES) o Genetic algorithms (GAs) o Multi-criteria decision methods (MCDM)

8. The planning and decision making model (Simon’s model, 1960) The intelligence phase “Is there a need for implementing land consolidation?” The design phase “What are the alternative land reallocation plans?” The choice phase “Which alternative plan is the most beneficial?”

9. Expert systems (ES) “ IF this condition (or premise or antecedent) occurs THEN some action (or results or conclusion, or consequence) will or should occur”.

10. Genetic algorithms (GAs)

11. Multi-criteria decision methods (MCDM) o Multi-attribute decision making (MADM) o It is a selection process o Limited number of alternatives o Multi-objective decision making (MODM) o It is a design process o Infinitive/large feasible alternatives

12. LACONISS framework LAnd CONsolidation Integrated Support System for planning and decision making

13. The conceptual framework of LACONISS Intelligence phase Design phase I Choice phase I System description (Build GIS model) Design & Choice phase II Assess the current situation (Measure land fragmentation) Evaluate alternatives (Evaluate land redistribution plans) Generate and evaluate parcels (Land partitioning and final land reallocation plan) Generate alternatives (Generate land redistribution plans)

14. The operational framework of LACONISS

15. Intelligence phase: the land fragmentation model (GIS + MADM) o Factors: e.g. distance among parcels, number of parcels, size and shape of parcels etc. o Weights: From 0-1, with sum 1 for all factors o Scores: e.g. number of parcels =3, Size=5000m 2, Number of corners=10 etc. o Standardize scores at 0-1 scale using value functions o Index (0-1)= Sum (standardized score X weight)

16. Design phase I : the land redistribution design model (GIS + ES) 74 rules, 10 rule clusters

17. An IF-THEN rule IF [the total area of the property of a landowner is less than a minimum area limit defined by the Land Consolidation Committee ] THEN [the landowner will not receive property in the new plan and he will receive compensation and his/her property will be allocated to other landowners]

18. Choice phase I: the land redistribution evaluation model (GIS + MADM) Evaluation criteria o Number of parcels per holding and per landowner o Size, shape and dispersion of parcels o Ownership type of parcels o Accessibility to road o Number of landowners

19. Design & Choice phase II: the land partitioning model (GIS + GAs + MODM) Where Pi is a vector of N land parcels: P= (P1, P2, P3…, Pn) and i=1,2,3,…N, the number of parcels. Constraint violation

20. Land partitioning model representation (1) Population: a set of land partitioning plans Individual: a land partitioning plan Chromosome: a land parcel Gene: a grid cell of a land parcel

21. Land partitioning model representation (2)

22. What it has been done so far? o The development of LandSpaCES (Design Module) o Very encouraging results: system's decisions are close to experts decisions from 63 to 100% for nine criteria o LandSpaCES solved the problem in 6 mins while experts in 30 days! o The evaluation module of LandSpaCES is currently under development o Presentations about LandSpaCES o AGILE (Association of Geographic Information Laboratories for Europe), University of Utrecht, The Netherlands, 18-21 April 2011 o FIG working week in Marrakech, Morocco, 15-17 May 2011

23. Conclusion o The objectives are ambitious and the development of the system is a real challenge. However, the geotechnology tools and methods now available provide the means by which such a hybrid theoretical framework can be achieved.

24. Many thanks for your attention and patience! Questions, comments, advices etc. are welcomed!