1. 1 Current/Future Directions for Air Force Space Weather Dr. Joel B. Mozer Battlespace Environment Division Space Vehicles Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory

2. 2 Leading the discovery, development, and integration of affordable technologies for our air, space and cyberspace force. It’s not just about the science… …it’s about leadership in S&T AFRL Mission

3. Space Weather Research at AFRL Why is the Air Force interested in Space Weather? What is the current state of Space Weather within the AF? What does the future look like? Leading the nation for forecasting the Space Environment 3

4. 4 Space Services Navigation Communications Weather Space assets are pervasive in civilian and defense services Precision Strike ISR

5. Why is the AF interested in SWx? Satellite Operations – Rapid anomaly assessment – was it a bug, the environment, or the enemy? – Protection and mitigation important Satellite Design – How much shielding? – How long of a lifetime? Space Situational Awareness – Enabling good decisions based on good knowledge of battlespace The Ionosphere – Impacts many RF-based systems communicating through, or across it – GPS, Satellite Communication, HF Communication, etc. 5 of 23 Space Weather Impacts Nearly Every AF Mission!

6. Hazards of Space Environment Satellite Systems Vacuum welding UV damage Sputtering Corrosiveness of atomic oxygen Plasma-induced charging Micrometeoroids Fluctuating magnetic fields Energetic charged particles / radiation Neutral atmosphere drag Solar radio noise Debris / collisions Ionosphere (ground communications) 6 of 23

7. Satellite Communications 7 of 23 High Med Low Impact Development of SATCOM systems Broad trade space (bandwidth, coverage, cost, survivability, security) Ionospheric scintillation very important UHF/VHF most affected Equatorial regions most affected

8. What is the current state of SWx? Environmental monitoring – Space-based: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) – Ground-based: Solar Electro Optical Network (SEON) Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) – 4 telescopes worldwide Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) – 4 observatories, – Civilian (non AF) assets: ACE, LASCO, etc. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) – Ingests data – Runs assimilative and forecast models (relatively primitive) – Produces forecasts & system impact products Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) – Assesses environment – Tasks satellites Satellite Design Centers – Use standard empirical models of radiation environments – Often engineer around Space Weather effects (at high cost) 8 of 23 Space Weather Lags Tropospheric Weather by 30 years!

9. Space Wx Forecasting Currently in the era of specification – Climatology for satellite design – Post-anomaly resolution Predictive decision aids increasingly required – More dependence on space – More sensitivity to environmental effects Tropospheric Wx Forecasting Lots of data! Robust operational numerical weather prediction Impacts well known Culture of considering weather effects (e.g., ATOs) Infrastructure to support rapid data dissemination 24-hr fcst of 500mb winds/clouds over SW Asia Vision: Dynamic data-driven models to provide products with real military utility delivered to warfighter Space Weather Forecasting 10-year Vision 9

10. Space Weather AFSPC Vision 10

11. Sun-to-Mud Coupling State of the Science Solar Interior  MHD dynamics  Emerging magnetic flux  Backside imaging (helioseismology) Solar Interior  MHD dynamics  Emerging magnetic flux  Backside imaging (helioseismology) Photosphere & Chromosphere  Mag. Field  Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs)  Flares / Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)  Coronal holes / solar wind  Radio Bursts  X-ray/EUV emissions Photosphere & Chromosphere  Mag. Field  Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs)  Flares / Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)  Coronal holes / solar wind  Radio Bursts  X-ray/EUV emissions Heliosphere  Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)  Solar Wind  Shocks/SEPs  CMEs Heliosphere  Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)  Solar Wind  Shocks/SEPs  CMEs Magnetosphere  IMF  Magnetic storms/substorms  Auroral zones/ring currents  Polar Cap Potential  Radiation Belts  South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) Magnetosphere  IMF  Magnetic storms/substorms  Auroral zones/ring currents  Polar Cap Potential  Radiation Belts  South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) Thermosphere & Ionosphere  Plasma bubbles / equatorial anomalies  Scintillation / density fluctuation  Neutral winds  Travelling iono. disturbances  UV Heating  Ion chemistry  Bulk ionosphere Thermosphere & Ionosphere  Plasma bubbles / equatorial anomalies  Scintillation / density fluctuation  Neutral winds  Travelling iono. disturbances  UV Heating  Ion chemistry  Bulk ionosphere Driven/Compliant System Persistent System Legend  6.1 – TRL 1-2  6.2 – TRL 3-4  6.3 – TRL 5-6 Legend  6.1 – TRL 1-2  6.2 – TRL 3-4  6.3 – TRL 5-6 Covering all the pieces of a very complex system! 11

12. 12 of 23 Examples of AFRL Space Weather Technology Projects

13. 13 Solar Disturbance Prediction And Impacts On DoD Systems Large-aperture telescope design and construction Remote sensing of solar & coronal vector magnetic fields and electric currents Energy storage and release mechanisms in large magnetic plasmas Characterization of coronal mass ejections (size, density, magnetic configuration, etc.) Technology Challenges Objective: Develop full-range of sensors, models & products to provide reliable specification and prediction of solar and interplanetary disturbances and the hazards they pose to DoD missions and operations Space Weather starts a the Sun. Understanding solar disturbances is required to achieve 72-120 hour forecasts of SWx at Earth. Advanced Tech. Solar Telescope (ATST) Improved Solar Optical Observing Network (ISOON)

14. Space Sensing Technology Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) SMEI Achievements/Milestones Launched January 2003 First Halo Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) ob Tomographic measurements and 3-D reconstruction Very high altitude aurora observations Gamma ray burst comparison study Solar wind drag model and Ulysses data comparison Space weather evaluation for Earth-directed ICMEs Eclipsing binary stellar studies ICME observations at Mars Solar wind drag, driving Lorentz Force and model comparison Comet tail “disruption event” discovery Obs of ICMEs not connected with CMEs in coronagraphs Phenomenological model of ICME structure/kinematics SMEI Achievements/Milestones Launched January 2003 First Halo Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) ob Tomographic measurements and 3-D reconstruction Very high altitude aurora observations Gamma ray burst comparison study Solar wind drag model and Ulysses data comparison Space weather evaluation for Earth-directed ICMEs Eclipsing binary stellar studies ICME observations at Mars Solar wind drag, driving Lorentz Force and model comparison Comet tail “disruption event” discovery Obs of ICMEs not connected with CMEs in coronagraphs Phenomenological model of ICME structure/kinematics SMEI phenomenally successful first Heliospheric Imager Over 100 publications to date! Comet Tail Disconnects Result of Interplanetary CME passage 14 Comet LINEAR (C/2002 T7) ICME

15. ACE Shock LASCO Data SMEI Model CME/ICME: 30 November-05 December, 2004 The Tappin-Howard CME Propagation Model Projected LASCO Projected arrival time at ACE: LASCO projection: 13:30 UT on 4 December. TH Model projection: 07:15 UT on 5 December. Actual arrival time at ACE: 06:56 UT on 5 December. So the Tappin-Howard Model predicted an arrival time that was just 19 minutes later than the actual time!

16. 16 Ionospheric Impacts On DoD Systems Objective: Develop & deploy sensors, models & products to specify, forecast & mitigate ionospheric disturbances & their impacts on DoD RF systems SatCom/GPS Satellite Receiver Scintillation, Comm dropouts, GPS loss of lock Irregularities In ionosphere Systems Impacted by Scintillation AF has no capability to forecast link outages caused by ionospheric scintillation

17. Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) Milestones accomplished Launched (April 16, 2008) C/NOFS Instruments C/NOFS Occultation (GPS) Receiver for Ionospheric Sensing and Specification (CORISS) Vector Electric Field Instrument (and mag) (VEFI) Coherent EM Radio Tomography (CERTO) Neutral Wind Meter (NWM) Ion Velocity Meter (IVM) Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP) Work in progress Understanding the data Improved Models Operational Demonstration C/NOFS is on track for April 2008 Launch C/NOFS is pathfinder for operational iono. mission C/NOFS Components Satellite Ground Stations SCINDA Beacons Models and Products SCINDA Sites Thru 2008

18. DISS TEC S4 Ionospheric Monitors Data-Driven Modeling C/NOFS System Components GPS Error COMM Outage Satellite & Ground StationsSpecification Products Data Assimilation Physics-Based Forecasts Data Center

19. Global/Regional Maps Static, flat displays Point-to-Point Data Dynamic, interactive displays SATCOM GPS RADAR SATCOM 4D Data Grids C/NOFS Data and Product Types

20. 20 Space Particle Hazards Specification and Forecasting Objectives: Develop technology to measure/monitor /specify/forecast the space particle/radiation environments (local & globally) Develop models of the magnetosphere & radiation belts Predict the hazardous effects on DoD space systems Develop technology to passively/actively defend against space environment Objectives: Develop technology to measure/monitor /specify/forecast the space particle/radiation environments (local & globally) Develop models of the magnetosphere & radiation belts Predict the hazardous effects on DoD space systems Develop technology to passively/actively defend against space environment Miniaturized Sensors Limited Data Sets – Measurements made in 1960s & 1970s Lack of understanding of non-linear dynamic radiation-belt processes Non-Standardized electrical & telemetry interfaces Technology Challenges

21. South Atlantic Anomaly (horn of inner belt) Aurora Outer belt horn Important for satellite acquisition… New AP-9/AE-9 standard radiation belt model being developed Provides significant improvement in coverage and statistics over current AP-8/AE-8 standard Sorely needed by satellite engineers to control risk, maximize capability and reduce cost in designing for new orbit regimes … and for space situational awareness AFRL using CEASE/TSX-5 database to develop models of LEO radiation hazards – Protons in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) – Electrons in the “Horns” of outer belt Drift of Earth’s internal magnetic field (0.3 – 0.45 deg/year) changes location of SAA - old maps inaccurate Accurate map crucial for mission planning, situational awareness and anomaly resolution Aurora 1/2 maximum 1/10 maximum Background x 3  maximum Key: > 23 MeV, > 38 MeV, > 59 MeV, > 96 MeV Proton boundaries at 800 km > 1.2 MeV electron maps at 1050 km Outer Belt Inner Belt Slot HEO RBSP ICO TSX5 DSX GEO LEO Radiation environment Space Weather SSA LEO Radiation Environment Models Developing next-generation LEO radiation models for mission planning/situational awareness

22. REQUIREMENT Improved SSA Identify space weather effects Timely anomaly resolution Discrimination from hostile actions Cultural Acceptance At least some space environment sensors are needed on every asset Miniaturized, Easily-Integrated Instruments Existing, upgraded, and novel instruments affordably providing essential data Distributed, Coordinated Capability An architecture for configurable, distributed instruments and on-board analysis Accurate, timely and complete space environment information for operators and decision-makers GOAL S E D A R S SPACE ENVIRONMENT DISTRIBUTED ANOMALY RESOLUTION SYSTEM

23. Space Environment Sensors Micro-Meteoroid Impact Detector Integrated Impact Stand-off Sensor Optical Flash Debris Plasma RF Emissions Acoustic Signature Mechanical Deformation Collaboration with AFRL/RVSV, NASA- JSC, & Sandia Natl Lab has begun. AFRL goal is to produce a flight instrument in FY11. Preliminary experiments in FY04-06 demonstrated that an integrated optical and RF instrument could remotely detect hypervelocity (1–70 km/s) impacts. Hypervelocity impacts to manned and unmanned spacecraft are an increasing threat. micrometeoroidsdebriskinetic ASATs “frequency” 2 GHz 8 MHz 0 µs 10 µs time Wavelet analysis electrostatic discharge? impacts RF time series IMPACT SIGNATURE ANALYSIS Microwave receiver Debris plasma sensor Optical sensor Cabling and RF sensor DETECTION … LOCALIZATION … CHARACTERIZATION … ATTRIBUTION

24. Objective: Develop sensors, data products, estimation techniques, empirical and coupled physical models to accurately specify and forecast the neutral atmosphere and satellite drag that are used to obtain precision orbit prediction for space objects Technology Challenges Miniaturized, low-power, capable, reliable autonomous space-based sensors Physics-based coupled model development Active plasma control technologies Space-based neutral-wind monitoring; characterization of appropriate orbital parameters Data assimilation and forecasting Orbital Drag Environments Specification and Forecasting Developing first physics-based model to accurately specify/forecast the satellite drag environment

25.  Facility for integrating AFRL and related space weather forecast capabilities  Test bed for testing and evaluating space weather forecasting techniques, tools, and models  Focus for transfer of R&D models into operational usage (as per National Space Weather Panel Assessment Committee) SWFL SWx Impacts to Missions Space Weather Forecast Laboratory A platform for demonstrating AFRL SWx science and technology for ops

26. Model Coupling Space Weather Forecast Laboratory SWFL looking to bridge the gap between CISM and warfighter SWFL Activities End-to-end validation Tailoring for DoD needs Science Applications Increasing system TRL Product generation Scientist “training” Supports FLTC 2.6.3 – “Integrated Space Environment” 26

27. Conclusion We are in a rapidly emerging state of technology to enable space weather forecasting for current and future DoD systems AFRL’s role is to bridge the gap between space weather research and warfighter needs Future of space weather (from AF perspective): – Robust Numerical Space Weather Prediction – More sensing through small, cheap, lightweight sensors on many satellites – Direct inclusion of space weather effects in systems and decision aids AFWA’s Space WOC GPS IIR-13 launch