1. IS6833 Homicide Prediction 2011 Michelle Bergesch Jeff Stahlhuth

2. Issue: Determine Next Homicide Homicide: Includes murder and non-negligent manslaughter which is the willful killing of one human being by another Key Considerations: – Generally independent non-related events – Too easy to jump to conclusion – Data granularity (Region, District, Ward, Zip, Neighborhood) – Victim to Offender relationship

3. Causation Vs. Correlation Homicide Contributing Factor Assumptions: 1.Economy 2.Abandoned property 3.Census demographics Sex, Race, Education, Income 4.Homicide as a result of another crime 5.Previous conviction type and frequency 6.Felon location

4. Causation Vs. Correlation 1.Economy: – Presumption is bad economy = more crime – Most research is inclusive on this relationship – Available census data was from 1990 2.Abandoned Property – Presumption increased number of abandoned properties would be used for drugs and crime – Property data organized by address not neighborhood, required extensive

5. Causation Vs. Correlation 3.Census Demographics: – Needed data formatted by neighborhood – Available census data was from 1990 4.Homicide as a result of another crime – FBI expanded homicide data sort data by relationship, sex, weapon, related crime, etc. – Related crime categories do not completely match UCR categories

6. Causation Vs. Correlation 5.Previous conviction type and frequency – Strongest predictive factor to predict murders is previous offender history (Berk) – Court case data provides frequency and timing of previous offenses 6.Felon location – Need a mechanism to identify previous offender location (i.e. sex offender registry) – No research to support proximity of murder to offender dwelling

7. What Data Was Considered? Missouri Census Data – http://mcdc.missouri.edu/ http://mcdc.missouri.edu/ St. Louis Police Dept. UCR Data – http://www.slmpd.org/ http://www.slmpd.org/ St. Louis Circuit Court (Cases & Protective Orders) – http://www.stlcitycircuitcourt.com/circuitclerk.html http://www.stlcitycircuitcourt.com/circuitclerk.html – http://www.stlcitycircuitcourt.com/search.php http://www.stlcitycircuitcourt.com/search.php Neighborhood Background Data – http://stlouis.missouri.org/neighborhoods/ http://stlouis.missouri.org/neighborhoods/ Missouri Highway Patrol UCR – http://www.mshp.dps.missouri.gov/MSHPWeb/SAC/data_and_statistics_ucr.html http://www.mshp.dps.missouri.gov/MSHPWeb/SAC/data_and_statistics_ucr.html FBI UCR Crime Statistics – http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offenses/expanded_information/homicide.html http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offenses/expanded_information/homicide.html Berk Crime Prediction Tool – Univ. of Pennsylvania – http://www.smartplanet.com/technology/blog/science-scope/in-philadelphia- prediction-and-probability-in-crime-patterns/3598/ http://www.smartplanet.com/technology/blog/science-scope/in-philadelphia- prediction-and-probability-in-crime-patterns/3598/

8. What Data Was Used? St. Louis Police Dept. UCR Data Neighborhood Background Data FBI UCR Crime Statistics

9. Methodology FBI Expanded data breaks down annual homicides by contributing circumstances (Rape, Burglary, Robbery, etc.) Data granularity does not match standard UCR categories, however 5 crimes do match

10. Methodology FBI Expanded Data

11. Methodology Develop a holistic scoring number to predict homicides and related crime trend for each neighborhood Predicted Homicides (PH) – linear trend analysis of homicide rates by neighborhood. Predicted Crime Index (PCI)- predicted sum of projected related crimes based on reported UCR data for each neighborhood Report then outlines where the next homicide will be AND a related crime index. Patrol deployment recommendation based on sum of PH + PCI

12. Conclusion Projected Homicides by Neighborhood NEIGHBORHOOD TOTAL MurderTOTAL Rape TOTAL ROBBERY Burglary TOTAL Larceny TOTALAUTO Theft ANCILLARY HOMICIDEPHPCI Jeff-Vanderlou Average11.270.014.860.830.260.146.1011.2717.37 Mark-Twain Average9.070.002.770.790.140.113.819.0712.88 Kingsway-West Average7.930.011.560.590.080.072.327.9310.25 Wells-Goodfellow Average7.870.025.141.080.240.106.597.8714.46 Baden Average6.800.025.101.580.300.167.166.8013.96 Penrose Average6.730.013.480.910.200.134.736.7311.46 Fairground Average5.870.001.330.150.100.031.625.877.49 North-Point Average5.530.002.040.530.130.092.785.538.32 O'Fallon Average5.400.013.350.960.130.114.555.409.95 Hyde-Park Average5.000.001.350.560.080.072.055.007.05 Dutchtown Average4.870.036.933.670.460.1411.234.8716.10 College-Hill Average4.470.001.080.340.050.031.514.475.97 Hamilton-Heights Average4.400.012.130.440.090.062.744.407.14 Walnut-Park-West Average4.330.012.640.750.080.063.544.337.87 Tower-Grove-South Average3.670.007.402.410.670.2110.693.6714.36 Gravois-Park Average3.600.013.321.410.260.075.063.608.66 Downtown-West Average3.530.024.070.230.710.115.143.538.67 Academy 2011 prediction3.530.011.820.540.110.032.513.536.05 Benton-Park-West Average3.470.002.811.040.140.064.053.477.52 Old-North-St.-Louis Average3.400.001.550.310.090.072.013.405.41

13. Conclusion Resource Deployment by Neighborhood NEIGHBORHOOD TOTAL MurderTOTAL Rape TOTAL ROBBERY Burglary TOTAL Larceny TOTALAUTO Theft ANCILLARY HOMICIDEPHPCI Jeff-Vanderlou Average11.270.014.860.830.260.146.1011.2717.37 Dutchtown Average4.870.036.933.670.460.1411.234.8716.10 Wells-Goodfellow Average7.870.025.141.080.240.106.597.8714.46 Tower-Grove-South Average3.670.007.402.410.670.2110.693.6714.36 Baden Average6.800.025.101.580.300.167.166.8013.96 Mark-Twain Average9.070.002.770.790.140.113.819.0712.88 Penrose Average6.730.013.480.910.200.134.736.7311.46 Kingsway-West Average7.930.011.560.590.080.072.327.9310.25 O'Fallon Average5.400.013.350.960.130.114.555.409.95 The-Greater-Ville Average2.730.014.521.490.150.116.282.739.02 Downtown-West Average3.530.024.070.230.710.115.143.538.67 Gravois-Park Average3.600.013.321.410.260.075.063.608.66 North-Point Average5.530.002.040.530.130.092.785.538.32 Downtown Average2.070.014.750.330.910.166.162.078.23 Carondelet Average2.870.013.521.250.380.155.322.878.18 Walnut-Park-West Average4.330.012.640.750.080.063.544.337.87 Benton-Park-West Average3.470.002.811.040.140.064.053.477.52 Fairground Average5.870.001.330.150.100.031.625.877.49 Central-West-End Average1.870.003.860.480.790.175.301.877.17 Hamilton-Heights Average4.400.012.130.440.090.062.744.407.14