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The Economy Today: What our measures tell us about the current recession Keith Hall Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics March 05, 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "The Economy Today: What our measures tell us about the current recession Keith Hall Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics March 05, 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Economy Today: What our measures tell us about the current recession Keith Hall Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics March 05, 2010

2 Civilian unemployment rate, 1990-2010 Seasonally adjusted, percent NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, 2010. 2 Unemployment rate = 9.7% in February 2010

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6 Current Indicators

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12 Industries

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20 Household Survey

21 Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational attainment, 1992-2010 Seasonally adjusted, percent NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, 2010. 21 Bachelor's degree and higherSome college or associate degree High school graduates, no college Less than a high school diploma

22 Unemployment rates for whites, blacks or African Americans, and persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, 1990-2010 Seasonally adjusted, percent NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, 2010. 22 Whites Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Blacks or African Americans

23 Alternative measures of labor underutilization, 1994-2010 Seasonally adjusted, percent NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, 2010. 23 U-3 Unemployment rate U-2 U-1 U-4 U-5 U-6

24 Unemployment rate and long-term unemployment rate, 1994-2010 Seasonally adjusted, percent NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, 2010. 24 Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Long term unemployment rate = 4.0% in February 2010

25 Comparisons with Prior Recessions

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27 Recession Stages

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29 29 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, March 5, 2010.

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31 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, March 5, 2010. 31

32 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, March 5, 2010. 32 ** The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) denoted recessions starting in January 1980 and July 1981.


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