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Nebraska Economic Update and Housing Outlook NIFA’s Housing Innovation Marketplace Omaha, NE – January 27, 2010 January 27, 20101K. Edmiston, FRB KC.

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Presentation on theme: "Nebraska Economic Update and Housing Outlook NIFA’s Housing Innovation Marketplace Omaha, NE – January 27, 2010 January 27, 20101K. Edmiston, FRB KC."— Presentation transcript:

1 Nebraska Economic Update and Housing Outlook NIFA’s Housing Innovation Marketplace Omaha, NE – January 27, 2010 January 27, 20101K. Edmiston, FRB KC

2 The Housing Market January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC2

3 Existing Home Sales (Index Q2 1999 = 100) January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC3 Omaha (annual change %)

4 Months Supply of Existing Homes January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC4 Source: Area Residential Realtors Associations

5 Existing Home Prices (Index Q3 1991 = 100) January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC5

6 Value of Residential Construction Contracts (January 2005 = 100) January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC6

7 Delinquencies and Foreclosures January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC7

8 Data Source: Lender Processing Services, Inc. Applied Analytics

9 Omaha Area Foreclosure Rates 2009 Data Source: RealtyTrac

10 Future Direction January 14, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC10  Delinquencies remain high, and are on the rise  Modification efforts likely delaying more than preventing foreclosures

11 Status of Mortgage Pool in Nebraska and U.S. Status of Mortgage PoolNebraskaUSA Delinquent 30 days2.983.79 Delinquent 60 days1.191.77 Delinquent 90 days +2.254.38 TOTAL PAST DUE6.419.94 Foreclosures Started0.731.42 In Foreclosure Process1.884.47 SERIOUSLY DELINQUENT4.138.85 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association January 14, 201011K. Edmiston, FRB KC

12 Future Direction January 14, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC12  Delinquencies remain high, and are on the rise  Modification efforts likely delaying more than preventing foreclosures  Subprime mortgage resets were generally modest in light of low mortgage rates, and resets are about over  But remaining subprime mortgage holders often are in trouble

13 Subprime Mortgages in Nebraska and U.S 3 rd Qtr. 20063 rd Qtr. 2009 Share of Mortgages Nebraska11.997.39 USA13.5610.57 Past Due (%) Nebraska14.1522.64 USA12.9526.42 Foreclosure Rate (%) Nebraska5.137.73 USA3.8615.35 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association January 14, 201013K. Edmiston, FRB KC

14 Future Direction January 14, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC14  Delinquencies remain high, and are on the rise  Modification efforts likely delaying more than preventing foreclosures  Subprime mortgage resets were generally modest in light of low mortgage rates, and resets are about over  But remaining subprime mortgage holders often are in trouble  New wave of resets is coming

15 Mortgage Resets 15 Source: American Loan Performance, UBS January 14, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC

16 Future Direction January 14, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC16  Delinquencies remain high, and are on the rise  Modification efforts likely delaying more than preventing foreclosures  Subprime mortgage resets were generally modest in light of low mortgage rates, and resets are about over  But remaining subprime mortgage holders often are in trouble  New wave of resets is coming  Much will depend on the economy and housing markets (up ahead!)

17 The Economic Situation January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC17

18 Gross Domestic Product (percent change from previous quarter – annual rate) January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC18 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

19 U.S. Retail Sales ($millions) January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

20 Industry Employment (Percent change from one year ago) January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC20 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

21 Unemployment Rates January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC21 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

22 Nebraska Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (Percent change from one year ago) January 27, 2010K. Edmiston, FRB KC22 Source: U.S. Department of Labor

23 Kelly D. Edmiston 1 Memorial Drive Kansas City, MO 64198 (816) 881-2004 Voice (816) 881-2199 Fax Kelly.edmiston@kc.frb.org January 27, 201023


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