1. 1 Trade, Climate Change and Food Security Challenges for the International Trading Regime from the South Asian Perspective Siddhartha Mitra Director (Research) CUTS International & Head, CUTS CITEE sm2@cuts.org

2. 2 Plan of the presentation Framing the problem Some general characteristics of global warming induced climate change Climate change and global warming: evidence from South Asia Impact of climate change on agriculture in South Asia Role of trade & regional cooperation Choices before South Asia for tackling food insecurity

3. 3 Framing the problem In the next century, climate change and associated global warming will reduce staple crop yields in South Asia and Sub Saharan Africa while increasing it in temperate parts of the world Flooding, rise in sea level etc might actually reduce the amount of cultivable land in South Asia At the same time, this region will experience enhanced demand for staples due to economic growth and population growth The result would be food insecurity Question: How do we solve this problem through the international trading regime?

4. 4 Some general impacts of climate change Rise in temperature Erratic rainfall Extreme weather Floods and droughts Rise in sea level Coastal erosion

5. 5 Climate change and global warming: Some evidence from South Asia Meteorological evidence indicates that temperature in India will increase by 2 - 4 o C by 2050 and the number of rainy days in a year will decrease by more than 15 In Sri Lanka, average air temperature has increased by 0.64 o C over the past 40 years. The frequency of droughts and landslides has increased Number of storm surges, larger storm waves and more intense flooding events has increased in Maldives

6. 6 Climate change and global warming: Some evidence from South Asia (Cont.) Recent rise in mean temperature of around 0.6 -1.0 o C and 10-15 percent decrease in rainfall in arid plains and coastal belt in Pakistan In Bangladesh: 7.6 to 10.2 cm rise in high tide level per year and a rise in sea level of 1metre predicted within the next 50 years; a significant rise in rainfall and surface temperature over time

7. 7 Impact of climate change on agriculture: General Findings/Inferences Affects stability and quantity of food supply, purchasing power of agricultural population, food aid Large reductions in cereal yield of up to 22 percent in South Asia (IFPRI, 2007)

8. 8 Impact of climate change on agriculture and allied activities: Country specific findings Pakistan: Wheat yield which rose steadily till 2004 would fall by around 6 percent by 2080; the fall would be in all regions except the Northern mountainous region Sri Lanka: At the current rate of rise in temperature rice yield would reduce by 5.9 percent every 30 years India: Expected temperature rise and its estimated impact on yield imply a decline of wheat yield of around 10-40 percent by 2050

9. 9 How can trade alleviate food insecurity? Import of climate change friendly technologies Import of inputs facilitating the implementation of these technologies Trade negotiations and outcomes preventing distortion of the market by surplus producing countries Use of the above to prevent macroeconomic distortion

10. 10 Scope for regional cooperation Better sharing of water resources to maximise production of staples within the region Better utilisation of the principles of comparative advantage in staple food production Research collaboration to facilitate development of climate friendly technologies tuned to South Asian conditions

11. 11 Tackling food insecurity: Approach 1 Allow farmers to response to yield losses in staple cultivation through changes in crop mix/land allocation Make good the food deficit by importing from countries with surplus, especially in the temperate region Risks: Cartelisation by countries with food surplus; High food prices in the case of bad harvests/export bans; and Subsidies by governments of surplus producing countries to keep land fallow in order to enhance export revenues.

12. 12 Tacking food insecurity: Approach 2 Try to be self sufficient in staples by subsidising staple production to counter the disincentive from decline in yield Problem: Diversion of land from other uses becomes necessary to meet staple food demand – lower net income from agricultural activities

13. 13 Questions Should we adopt Approach 1 or Approach 2? What role does trade/trade negotiation have to play in each case? For example, import of cheap staples versus that of climate friendly technologies How are/is the risks/downside to be tackled in each case?

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