1. Autonomous Vehicle Technology Where are we, Where are we going, How to get there Alain L Kornhauser, PhD, F.ITE Professor: Operations Research and Financial Engineering Faculty Chair: Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) Princeton University Presented @Unmanned Vehicle Caucus “Autonomous Vehicle Technology: Briefing & Demonstration” Wednesday, July 8 th, 2015 2325 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, DC

2. The Problem Safety! What has been happening? – We’ve done a great job in Crash Mitigation Lives are saved, Injuries are less severe Cost to fix things after crashes has gone up – Next great opportunity is Crash Avoidance Can Technology help? Where do we stand with Automation? – Reliability?

3. Perfection Reliability yesterdaytomorrow today Automation Human Reliability Time Automation Human Automation Human Automation Human Human versus Automation “Reliability” in Driving Doesn’t work

4. Present (2010) Economic & Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/2014/NHTSA-study-shows-vehicle-crashes-have-$871-billion-impact-on-U.S.-economy,-society Insurance : (Half of Economic Costs) ~$140B Automation could cut that in half ~ $70B/year

5. Present Value { Expected ( Loss Liability with the Technology – Loss Liability w/o the Technology )} > Cost {Automated Collision Avoidance Technology}

8. Casualty and Liability Claims are a Huge Drain on the Industry For the 10 year period 2004-2013, more than $4.8 Billion was spent on casualty and liability claims For many self-insured transit agencies these expenses are direct “out-of-pocket” Large reserves for claims must be budgeted Claims experience is reflected in insurance premiums There are gaps in data reporting

9. In the next five days the bus transit industry will spend $6.8 million in casualty and liability expenses

10. Federal Transit Administration National Transit Database for 2013 Commuter Bus (CB), Motor Bus (MB), Bus Rapid Transit (RB), Demand Responsive (DR) 121 Fatalities 15,700 Injuries Casualty & Liability expenses paid = $499,872,628 Average of $6,187 per bus

11. Costs of Bus Crashes – Industry Wide Tangible -likely not reported as casualty and liability expense Accident investigation Drug and alcohol testing Emergency services response Hearings and discipline In-house legal services In-house vehicle repair Lost fare revenue Overtime Passenger and service delays Sick time Spare vehicles and replacements Vehicle recovery

12. Costs of Bus Crashes – Industry Wide Intangible Human loss and suffering Media attention Good will

13. There is proven technology that can significantly reduce the number of collisions, injuries, fatalities and claims My goal is to make this technology available to the transit bus industry

14. Recommendations

15. Where do we go from here? Nurture the environment that will follow Moore’s Law and improve and make cheaper automated technology

16. Proposal Title: Application of Autonomous Collision Avoidance Technology to Transit Buses to Reduce Claims, Injuries and Fatalities Submitted by Princeton University In association with: American Public Transportation Association Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority Washington State Transit Insurance Pool Jerome M. Lutin, PhD, LLC

17. Where do we go from here? Nurture the environment that will follow Moore’s Law and improve and make cheaper automated technology Support Congressman Lipinski’s legislative initiative to create a Future Transportation Research and Innovation for Prosperity (TRIP) Act

18. Thank You www.Soterea.com https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=yARbNYcjPQM