1. Who We Are and Why We are Here? PaCOOS Presentation to Chet Koblinski, Ned Cyr and Jack Dunnigan Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 6 June 2005 We are oceanographers and fisheries scientists concerned with the California Current System, the impact of climate variability on ecosystems, and ecosystem-based fisheries management. We are appealing to NOAA to bring the power of its climate research program, ocean climate observing system, and fisheries research enterprise to study climate impacts on the California Current System Large Marine Ecosystem. Many of us are involved in planning the Pacific Coast Ocean Observing System (PaCOOS)

2. Why Study Climate Impacts on Ecosystems in the California Current? 1.There is large, economically important variability of the CCS ecosystem that is connected to physical climate variability by mechanisms that are not well understood. 2.56-years of study provides a foundation of data, hypotheses and models on climate forcing of the ecosystem as well as a multi-disciplinary collaborative team committed to studying the phenomena. 3.There is a range of physical mechanisms by which physical climate affects the ecosystem and a range of species that respond differently to these different mechanisms.

3. Line 80Line 90 of the CalCOFI Survey Nutricline Depth Vertically-Integrated Chlorophyll (0-100m) Zooplankton Biomass El Niño La Niña Bograd and Lynn (2001) Rapid changes in physical structure and biological response El Niño: deep thermocline, low productivity La Niña: shallow thermocline, high productvity Monthly sampling needed to observe El Niño evolution Jan 1996 Oct 1999 ENSO Interannual Variability

4. (from Peterson and Schwing, 2003) CCS zooplankton volume OR coho survival Northern copepods Decadal Climate and Ecosystem Variability 80% decline Correlation is more than coincidental but mechanisms are unknown

5. Pacific Salmon Populations When Alaska salmon are abundant Washington-Oregon catches are low 20001900 (from Mantua et al., 1997)

6. Sardine Has an Environmentally Based Harvest Plan When 3-year SST drops below 16.85 o C the allocation drops to 5% of harvestable biomass

7. Why Study Climate Impacts on Ecosystems in the California Current? 1.There is large, economically important variability of the CCS ecosystem that is connected to physical climate variability by mechanisms that are not well understood. 2.56-years of study provides a foundation of data, hypotheses and models on climate forcing of the ecosystem as well as a multi-disciplinary collaborative team committed to studying the phenomena. 3.There is a range of physical mechanisms by which physical climate affects the ecosystem and a range of species that respond differently to these different mechanisms.

8. Why Study Climate Impacts on Ecosystems in the California Current? 1.There is large, economically important variability of the CCS ecosystem that is connected to physical climate variability by mechanisms that are not well understood. 2.56-years of study provides a foundation of data, hypotheses and models on climate forcing of the ecosystem as well as a multi-disciplinary collaborative team committed to studying the phenomena. 3.There is a range of physical mechanisms by which physical climate affects the ecosystem and a range of species that respond differently to these different mechanisms. Upwelling, mixing and eddies affect nutrient nutrient supply Temperature, stratification and surface forcing affect behavior and biological rates Advection affects nutrient supply and plankton/egg distribution

9. What are Our Goals? To understand the mechanisms for, and extent of, climate variability impacts on CCS ecosystem To use this understanding to predict the consequences to the ecosystem of changes in climate forcing What is Our General Strategy? Carefully select species representing different functions in the ecosystem Observe these species well enough to understand their variability Use these observations with models/hypotheses to define mechanisms of climate impact on the ecosystem

10. What We Will Do Account for (1)temporal scales from weeks to decades, (2)spatial scales from meters to mega-meters, (3)differing climate impacts on organisms according to their life stage, and (4)strong bio-geographic boundaries and water-mass boundaries that characterize the CCS Use all observational tools (in ships, satellites, moorings, etc.) to synthesize a comprehensive picture of climate and ecosystem variability in order isolate mechanisms (e.g. mixing vs. upwelling, behavior vs. advection) Use models to synthesize diverse observations, to link local and basin-scale variability, and encapsulate what is learned.

11. Dramatic transition in physical and biological environment 2-4°C decrease in coastal SST Large increase in fluorescence Followed establishment of upwelling- favorable winds Duration of transition < one month Typical quarterly sampling insufficient to resolve spring transition Lynn et al. (2003) Seasonal Variability Dictates Frequent Sampling Frequent and well-timed sampling is also needed to account for the life stages of pertinent organisms

12. 116°120°124° 116°120°124° 38° 34° 30° courtesy of F. Schwing (NOAA Fisheries) Small Scales of Pertinent Variables Must Be Resolved El Nino YearLa Nina Year

13. Sampling Must Account for Biogeographic Distributions

14. Climate Variability Impacts Depend on Biogeographic Preferences

15. What We Will Do Account for (1)temporal scales from weeks to decades, (2)spatial scales from meters to mega-meters, (3)differing climate impacts on organisms according to their life stage, and (4)strong bio-geographic boundaries and water-mass boundaries that characterize the CCS Use all observational tools (in ships, satellites, moorings, etc.) to synthesize a comprehensive picture of climate and ecosystem variability in order isolate mechanisms (e.g. mixing vs. upwelling, behavior vs. advection) Use models to synthesize diverse observations, link local and basin-scale variability, and encapsulate what is learned.

16. Accuracy of ocean color products improved for 1996-2005 time period (OCTS, SeaWiFS, MODIS) compared to 1978-1986 (CZCS) M. Kahru & G. Mitchell Satellites Will Help Describe Carbon Fluxes First EOF of Ocean Color (left) shows the response to ENSO as described by the Northern Oscillation (above).

17. 1. Northern oligotrophic gyre 2. California coast 3. Baja California coast 4. Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Costa Rica dome NOI Carbon Export Response to El Nino Varies by Region Export Flux (mg C m -2 day -1 ) is calculated from Chlorophyll, PAR and SST using the model of Laws (2004) M. Kahru & G. Mitchell

18. Stratification and Thermocline Depth Affect Mixing and Upwelling OFFSHORE COASTAL Temp dT/dZ (dT/dZ) MAX Thermocline Depth

19. What We Will Do Account for (1)temporal scales from weeks to decades, (2)spatial scales from meters to mega-meters, (3)differing climate impacts on organisms according to their life stage, and (4)strong bio-geographic boundaries and water-mass boundaries that characterize the CCS Use all observational tools (in ships, satellites, moorings, etc.) to synthesize a comprehensive picture of climate and ecosystem variability in order isolate mechanisms (e.g. mixing vs. upwelling, behavior vs. advection) Use models to synthesize diverse observations, link local and basin-scale variability, and encapsulate what is learned.

20. Models Now Skillfully Analyze and Predict Physical Variability Courtesy A. Miller

21. Ecosystem Models Have Limited Skill and Great Promise Courtesy A. Miller

22. Summary 1.CCS has special scientific and personnel advantages for studying climate impacts on ecosystems 2.Correlation of climate variability and ecosystem change is evident but mechanisms are unknown, limiting utility for management and prediction 3.An empirically based approach focused on organisms representing different ecosystem functions is proposed 4.NOAA’s climate research program and the ocean climate observing system could assist if climate variability that affects ecosystems were part of their focus

23. What Follows 1.Elizabeth Clarke (NWFSC) will describe the PaCOOS program to which our pilot project is complementary 2.William Peterson (NWFSC/Newport) will describe the proposed hake and sardine demonstration project 3.Frank Schwing (SWFSC/Monterey) will explain why NOAA needs this project in the California Current System 4.Peter Niiler (SIO) will discuss basic research needs for the California Current 5.The NOAA HQ team will lead a discussion of NOAA needs and plans for climate and ecosystem research in the CCS