1. 1 MOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS SUSTAINABLY AIUS / AITPM Seminar Garry Glazebrook 12 Nov 2009 University of Technology, Sydney Garry.Glazebrook@uts.edu.au Garry.Glazebrook@uts.edu.au

2. 2 The Challenge  Peak Oil is a looming threat  Climate Change is only slightly less urgent, and potentially more serious  Health also important (obesity, pollution, social connectivity etc)  Transport needs to be more sustainable and our cities more resilient

3. 3 WEO 2008 and Uppsala Oil Outlook 2008  Source: Alaklett, 2009

4. 4 Coal production forecast 2006

5. 5 How long have we got? - Oil  Global Oil Production will decline. Australia’s share may also decline with competition from rising demand in China, India etc  We should plan for at least 50% reduction in oil availability for transport over the next 30 years  Cars will also face increased competition for oil products from trucks, ships, airlines, plastics industry, fertiliser industry etc.  There is a possibility that urban car-based travel will be seen as expendable if supplies really get short….

6. 6 Substitutes?  Gas can be used as a transport fuel (LPG) but also be subject to rising competition, peaking of supply and rising prices.  Coal to liquids – problems with logistics, cost and CO 2, and with future supply  Ethanol and other biofuels also have limits on scale of production and ramp up speed  In any event, need to reduce CO2 emissions from transport along with other sectors. Transport can’t expect to escape scot free.

7. 7 What are the options for a city like Sydney?  Reduce overall travel  Shift modes to walk/cycle/public transport  Increased energy efficiency within modes  Electric power with green electricity Energy / Oil / Greenhouse Amount of Travel Energy / Oil / GreenhouseIntensity X

8. 8 Reducing Travel…Urban Consolidation…  Has been happening, and Sydney has been getting denser, although still low density on a world scale  This has probably been a factor in halting the rise in VKT/capita, which has been stable for the last decade  Continuing consolidation and TOD will help reduce travel demand per capita, but changes are relatively small.

9. 9 Reducing Travel…Employment Location  Shifting “Global Sydney” jobs out of the CBD will increase rather than decrease energy, oil and greenhouse emissions  Less specialised jobs can and should be decentralised  But important to have a limited number of major centres (CBD, Parramatta, Macquarie) rather than dozens of small centres which will not be able to justify their own high quality public transport networks.

10. 10 Freight  Freight task continues to grow  Rail still losing out to trucks  Need to be serious about mode shift for interstate freight and freight into the port  Needs key investments, new models backed by pricing signals

11. 11 Personal Mobility  For short trips, need to shift to bikes, scooters and other personal mobility devices..  These can also efficiently access public transport for longer trips..  But greenway networks and secure lock up and shower facilities needed…

12. 12 Sustainable Mass Transit

13. 13 Sydney’s public transport (especially trains) are very significant… (Cityrail accounts for 10% of weekday travel, 2/3 of public transport passenger-kms in Sydney and 1/3 of all public transport passenger-kms in Australia)

14. 14 10% of our travel could be 100% greenpower tomorrow  All trains and trams could be switched to greenpower within 2 years  Cost = $30m pa  Compare with $5b for CBD metro  Costs will decline over time as black-power gets more expensive

15. 15 Shifting modes – land use

16. 16 But Sydney is falling behind because of lack of appropriate investment

17. 17 Shifting modes - investment  Sydney’s rail and bus systems have capacity problems  There are things we can do in the short term (next five years)….  Longer term, we need a comprehensive plan…

18. 18 Short term : 33% more trains on the current infrastructure (25% increase to CBD)

19. 19 Short term - LRT extensions Save $5 billion compared with CBD Metro, And gain better accessibility…

20. 20 Short term - integration Integrated fares and tickets Quality interchanges Integrated planning and funding Integrated information and marketing

21. 21 Energy efficiency and sources  Shift to hybrids, plug in electrics and smaller cars is starting..  But will take decades  Assume 50% cut in oil, GHG and energy per VKT within 27 years (2036)

22. 22 A Thirty Year PT Plan  10% cut in per capita travel  Double walk, cycle, PT usage  No further rise in car- VKT  >50% cut in oil use, GHG emissions (despite 30% pop growth)

23. 23 A Thirty Year PT Plan: Travel by Mode A= Business as usual; B = 30 Year Plan; C=Major change

24. 24 The Overall Plan

25. 25 Metro Network Fill major heavy rail gaps, links CBDs and universities

26. 26 Inner City LRT Network serves secondary radial routes in the inner west, east, and inner southern suburbs, and the CBD

27. 27 Bus-based Ring Routes and Park and Ride Six Ring Routes for Cross-Regional Travel 40 Strategic P&R facilities

28. 28 Capacity Enhancements Peak Hour Heavy Rail and Metros - 2036 Long Term including High Speed Rail  Inbound peak hour trains by route (top)  Build up in peak hour trains arriving CBD, Parramatta and Macquarie (right).

29. 29 Funding Sources  Users –Fares  Other beneficiaries –Accessibility beneficiaries (land) –Congestion relief (road congestion charges) –Environmental benefits (carbon taxes etc) –Social benefits (general taxation to cover subsidies for children, pensioners etc)

30. 30 Implementation  $40 billion extra over 30 years to PT  Saves at least $100b in car- related costs  Implementation by a Sydney Sustainable Transport Board with wide representation

31. 31 Conclusions  Sydney badly needs a long term plan which addresses peak oil, global warming and other sustainability issues.  This needs to have public involvement and public support  We have already seen what happens when a city doesn’t have such a plan…  The 30 Year Plan aimed to help establish a discussion in Sydney on our future transport needs and solutions

32. 32 Independent Public Inquiry  Take issue beyond politics – independent of government  Public Meetings  500 submissions  Market research and funding analysis  Key focus on funding, governance, short term improvements and long term enhancement  More opportunities for public involvement when draft report is released – will set out various options for comment and feedback.  Its our city and out children’s future – its up to us….

33. 33 Thank You Background reports for Public Inquiry www.transportpublicinquiry.com.au Copies of the 30 Year Public Transport Plan are available at http://www.dab.uts.edu.au/research/outcomes